
说美国人“愤怒”还远远不够。周二,民主党人不仅夺回了国会两院的控制权。他们重绘了美国政治版图,赢得了数代以来稳稳把持在共和党手中的职位,从深南部一直延伸到堪萨斯州和得克萨斯州。仅“孤星州”得克萨斯州拥有的 40 张选举人票,就让未来总统大选的核算面临可能发生剧变的局面。
To say that Americans were pissed off is an understatement. On Tuesday, Democrats didn’t just seize control of both houses of Congress. They redrew the American political map, capturing offices that had remained reliably Republican for generations, from the Deep South to Kansas and Texas. The Lone Star State alone, with its 40 Electoral College votes, now raises the possibility of a seismic shift in the calculus of future presidential elections.
这场史无前例的民主党大胜规模之大,向这位所谓的民粹主义总统发出了明确无误的谴责。信息清晰而简单:我们不喜欢你。
The sheer scale of the historic Democratic surge delivered an unmistakable rebuke to America’s supposedly populist president. The message was clear and simple: We do not like you.
美国人对特朗普政府迅速幻灭,很大程度上可以追溯到一个单词——战争——以及随着战争拖延,美国人所遭受的层层叠叠的经济困境。
Much of Americans’ rapid disillusionment with the Trump administration can be traced to a single word — — and the cascading economic hardships Americans have endured as the war has dragged on.
对共和党而言,威胁关乎生存。战争已从共和党的忠诚度测试,变成了许多前支持者的政治包袱,许多共和党人现在正试图摆脱这一包袱,以挽救自己的政治前途。
For the GOP, the threat is existential. The war has gone from a Republican loyalty test to a political albatross for many of its former supporters, one that many Republicans are now jettisoning themselves away from to salvage their own political futures.
到周三,这已成为该党惨败的主要解释,副总统万斯在 X 平台上明确宣称:“我们输掉选举的原因是战争。”“如果你想辩称这值得,辩称失去未来 6 年的参议院控制权值得,那就辩吧。辩称这是值得付出的代价。无论赞同与否,这至少是诚实的。”他写道。“但大家都知道我们为什么输了。任何关于我们何去何从的诚实对话,都必须从这里开始。”这番话出自特朗普自己的副总统之口,令人震惊地实现了大转弯。
By Wednesday, it had become the chief explanation for the party’s sweeping electoral defeat, with Vice President JD Vance declaring unequivocally on X that “the reason we lost is the war.”“If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest,” he wrote. “But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”Coming from Trump’s own vice president, it was a striking about-face.
这番发泄也为 2028 年总统大选提出了一个尴尬的问题:一位潜在的“让美国再次伟大”衣钵继承人,如何能反对自己政府发动的战争进行竞选?
The tirade also raised an awkward question ahead of the 2028 presidential race: How does a potential successor to the MAGA mantle campaign against a war waged by his own administration?

然而,特朗普并未像其副总统那样走得那么远。尽管这位总统承认战争损害了共和党,但他仍从根本上为战争辩护。周三,在长篇大论地谈论白宫舞厅后,特朗普对记者说:“伊朗那事我们不得不做,而且我们还在继续做。”但在竞选途中,共和党人并非完全对美国人对伊朗战争的集体挫败感视而不见。
Trump, however, has not gone nearly as far as his VP. Although the president acknowledged the war hurt Republicans, he still defended it on its merits. Speaking with reporters Wednesday after expounding at length about his White House ballroom, Trump said, “The Iran thing we had to do, and we continue to do it.”But on the campaign trail, Republicans were not completely oblivious to Americans’ collective frustration with the Iran war.
9月,美国广播公司新闻部(ABC News)梳理出17名共和党议员和候选人曾通过公开声明或投票呼吁结束战争。压力主要来自竞争激烈的中期选举,因为冲突对石油、柴油和化肥价格的影响已波及美国家庭。
In September, ABC News identified 17 Republican lawmakers and candidates who had called for ending the war through public statements or votes. Much of the pressure came in competitive midterms races, as the conflict’s effects on oil, diesel, and fertilizer prices reached American households.
在爱荷华州,共和党参议员候选人阿什利·辛森(Ashley Hinson)在9月呼吁“成功且立即结束”战争,警告选民正在加油站和杂货店为战争买单。然而,她曾六次投票反对众议院要求特朗普停止袭击的措施。在10月25日接受美国广播公司采访时,辛森表示不会排除大选后美国发动进攻的可能性,并称她信任特朗普和军方选择合适的时机。
In Iowa, Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson called for a “successful and immediate end” to the war in September, warning that voters were paying the price at gas pumps and grocery stores. Yet she voted six times against House measures directing Trump to halt the attacks. During an October 25 ABC interview, Hinson said she would not rule out a post-election U.S. offensive and said she trusted Trump and the military to choose the right timetable.
尽管总统在最近一次集会上夸赞了她的减重成果,但这种对特朗普温和的背离不足以让辛森过关,她最终以4.5个百分点之差败给了民主党人乔什·图雷克(Josh Turek)。
Despite the president praising her weight loss at a recent rally, tepidly breaking with Trump wasn’t enough to get Hinson over the line, and she lost to Democrat Josh Turek by 4.5 percentage points.

密歇根州也有不少伊朗问题上的“反悔者”。共和党参议员候选人迈克·罗杰斯(Mike Rogers)在2月28日轰炸开始时将伊朗描述为“迫在眉睫的威胁”。5月,他称这场冲突可能是“三赢”。但随着中期选举临近,罗杰斯发布竞选广告宣称“与伊朗的战争需要迅速结束”,并警告密歇根州家庭已无力承受经济后果。
Michigan also had its share of Iran backtrackers. Republican Senate hopeful Mike Rogers described Iran as an “imminent threat” when the bombing began on February 28. In May, he called the conflict a potential “win-win-win.”But with the midterms fast approaching, Rogers released a campaign ad declaring “the war with Iran needs to end” quickly and warned Michigan families could no longer afford the economic fallout.
密歇根州州长共和党候选人、众议员约翰·詹姆斯同样在战争早期赞扬了特朗普使用武力,称总统“有胆量”“确保自由的生存与成功”。他投了反对票,反对六项众议院战争授权决议,最近一次还是在9月。那次投票几天前,他说战争需要“迅速”结束。随后他在一次采访中宣称,“立场一直是,我讨厌战争。”罗杰斯和詹姆斯都输掉了选举。
Rep. John James, the Republican candidate for Michigan governor, likewise praised Trump’s use of force early in the war, saying the president “had the balls” to “assure the survival and success of liberty.”He voted against six House war-powers resolutions, including as recently as September. Days after that vote, he said the war needed to wrap up “quickly.”He went on to declare in an interview, “the position has always been, I hate war.”Both Rogers and James lost their races.

即使是佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯,这位共和党下届总统竞选的潜在角逐者、据报道可能接任皮特·赫格塞斯的职位,周一也警告说,这场战争是其政党的“巨大、巨大的拖累”。德桑蒂斯指出,特朗普竞选时反对另一场中东战争。现在选民面临更高的燃油成本,而拒绝承认这种联系的共和党人是在对他们“煤气灯效应”(欺骗/洗脑)。
Even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a possible contender in the Republican Party’s next presidential contest who could reportedly be up for Pete Hegseth’s job, warned Monday that the war was a “big, big drag” on his party. Trump, DeSantis pointed out, campaigned against another Middle Eastern war. Now voters are dealing with higher fuel costs, and Republicans who refuse to acknowledge the connection are “gaslighting” them.
但回溯到春天,德桑蒂斯曾为打击伊朗领导层辩护,将其政府描述为“一个狂热的、末世论的、好战的伊斯兰主义政权。”民调有助于解释共和党的恐慌。美联社的一项民调发现,大约十分之六的选民认为美国攻击伊朗是“错误决定”。而且共和党并非没有被警告过。他们自己阵营中的一小部分人,包括托马斯·马西和兰德·保罗,从战争最初就反对战争,并支持遏制战争的努力。但那些批评似乎落入了聋子耳中。
But back in spring, DeSantis defended the strikes on Iranian leadership, describing its government as “a fanatical, apocalyptic, militant Islamist regime.”The polling helps explain the Republican panic. An Associated Press poll found roughly 6 in 10 voters believed the U.S. made a “wrong decision” in attacking Iran. And it’s not as though Republicans weren’t warned. A handful within their own ranks, including Thomas Massie and Rand Paul, opposed the war from its earliest days and backed efforts to rein it in. But those criticisms seemed to fall on deaf ears.
随着责任归属众多,批评已超越候选人本身,延伸至保守派媒体生态系统。
With plenty of blame to go around, the criticism has gone beyond candidates and into the conservative media ecosystem.

在该电视网的黄金时段大选之夜报道中,福克斯新闻主持人肖恩·汉尼蒂告诉同事布雷特·拜尔,如果没有伊朗战争,结果本会不同。保守派评论员马特·沃尔什称这场战争是对“美国优先”原则的背叛,要求共和党更换领导层,并将这场冲突定性为“灾难性的愚蠢决定”。
During the network’s primetime Election Night coverage, Fox News host Sean Hannity told his colleague Bret Baier that the results would have been different without the Iran war. Conservative commentator Matt Walsh called the war a betrayal of America First principles, demanded new Republican leadership, and labeled the conflict a “catastrophically stupid decision.”
前众议员玛乔丽·泰勒·格林称特朗普违背不发动另一场对外战争的承诺是他“最大的背叛”,并表示“美国人对此已忍无可忍”。其他评论员则将责任完全归咎于特朗普本人,指责他将自己的政党拖入了政治泥沼。在《联邦党人报》上,资深编辑约翰·丹尼尔·戴维森将该党的垮台归咎于特朗普破坏了一个建立在拒绝乔治·W·布什时代干预主义政治基础上的共和党联盟。
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene called Trump breaking his promise not to start another foreign war his “biggest betrayal” and said “Americans are fed up with it.”Other commentators placed the responsibility squarely on Trump himself for sucking his own party into a political quagmire. In The Federalist, senior editor John Daniel Davidson blamed the party’s collapse on Trump’s undermining of a GOP coalition built upon rejecting the interventionist politics of the George W. Bush era.
一些知名共和党操盘手必将在撤退中被本党推向火坑。第一个被踢出局的可能就是美国首席“战士”赫格塞斯,他是这场战争最热情、也是最公开的啦啦队长之一。国防部长周四在网上发布了一段近六分钟的视频回应批评,他在视频中似乎在为保住职位辩护,吹嘘自己消除了多元、公平与包容计划的“马克思主义意识形态”,并将跨性别军人污名化为患有“精神疾病”。
Some prominent Republican operatives are sure to be thrown under the bus by their own party in the retreat. The first to get the boot may be none other than Hegseth, America’s chief “warfighter,” who has been one of the war’s most enthusiastic, and public, cheerleaders. The defense secretary responded to the criticisms in a nearly six-minute-long video posted online on Thursday, in which he seemed to make the case for keeping his job, touting his elimination of the “Marxist ideology” of diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives and tarring transgender troops as having a “mental illness.”
他说:“无论人们如何看待这场战争,我认为这是一项勇敢且具有历史意义的努力,将确保伊朗永远无法获得核武器,我们需要继续像特朗普总统在第一任期所做的那样,重建我们的军队。这与我无关,但当然,正如你所注意到的,对方痴迷于此。”赫格塞斯已经面临日益增长的共和党不满以及不满并被罢免的高级军事官员名单不断膨胀,如今他还面临由民主党控制的国会展开调查、以及由马西牵头的弹劾行动的前景。
“Regardless of how people care about the war, which I believe is a courageous and historic effort that will ensure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon, we need to continue, as President Trump did in his first term, to rebuild our military,” he said. “This is not about me, but of course, the other side, in case you noticed, they’re obsessed.”Already facing growing Republican dissatisfaction and a ballooning roster of disgruntled and ousted senior military officials, Hegseth now faces the prospect of investigations by a Democratic-controlled Congress and an impeachment effort led by Massie.

虽然特朗普迄今公开为其国防部长辩护,但据报道他也咨询过盟友,是否该让皮特“弹射出舱”。
And while Trump has so far publicly defended his defense secretary, he has also reportedly consulted allies about whether to hit the ejector seat on Pete.
但当共和党和民主党都在研究民调、计算战争与经济困境的政治筹码时,人的代价无法用选票衡量。据人权监测机构统计,截至4月初,伊朗已有至少3636人丧生,其中包括1701名平民和254名儿童。随后战斗升级,很可能已将这一数字推高得多。
But while Republicans and Democrats read polls and calculate the political currency of war and economic hardship, the human cost cannot be measured in votes. At least 3,636 people had been killed in Iran as of early April, including 1,701 civilians and 254 children, according to human rights monitors. More fighting has followed and likely driven that number far higher.

至少有23名美国军人在与战争相关的行动中死亡,近900人因敌方火力负伤。但这些只是,而特朗普政府一直在积极掩盖战争的真实伤亡率。这些不是选举统计数字。它们是失去的生命、破碎的家庭,以及将在政府更迭后长久延续的后果。
At least 23 American service members have died in operations connected to the war, with almost 900 wounded by enemy fire. But these are , and the Trump administration has worked to actively obfuscate the true casualty rates of the war. These are not electoral statistics. They are lives lost, families shattered, and consequences that will endure long after administrations swap office spaces.
对于如今正争相与一场极不得人心的战争划清界限的共和党人来说,政治后果可能比他们自己的投票记录更难逃脱。周二的结果显示,选民越来越愿意让政客为不必要的战争、以及战争遗留的苦难负责。
For Republicans now scrambling to distance themselves from a deeply unpopular war, the political consequences may be harder to escape than their own voting records. Tuesday’s results show voters are increasingly willing to hold politicians accountable for needless wars, and the suffering inherited from them.