共和党人周三清晨醒来，正舔舐周二中期选举惨败的伤口。许多人正在斟酌本党未来的前行道路，以及在少数党地位下该在多大程度上对特朗普总统施加制衡。在特朗普第二任期的前两年里，共和党曾享有执政“三权合一”的局面，当时对总统的极度顺从是不成文的铁律，如今共和党正直面一种全新的政治现实。他们甚至不确定是否该怪罪自己的领导层。参议院共和党高层大概率将保持不变，但众议院将迎来领导层洗牌，因为议长迈克·约翰逊（共和党-路易斯安那州）将不寻求连任少数党领袖。
Republicans woke up Wednesday morning licking their wounds after a shellacking in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Many are now determining what the path forward for their party ought to be and how far to push back on President Trump from the minority. After enjoying a governing trifecta for the first two years of the second Trump presidency, where extreme deference to the president was the law of the land, Republicans are staring down a new political reality. They aren’t even sure whether to blame their own leaders. While the top Republicans in the Senate are likely to stay the same, a leadership shake-up is on deck in the House as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will not seek to be minority leader.
在对惨重选举失利的初步反应中，共和党人承认了伊朗战争和高物价（尤其是汽油价格）对选民态度的影响。副总统万斯——被视为2028年接替特朗普的有力竞争者——明确将共和党的失利归咎于伊朗战争。“我们输掉选举的原因是这场战争，”万斯周三在社交平台X上的一篇长文中写道。“总统本人昨晚也这么说了。”万斯的批评是一种非同寻常的承认，即其政府对战争的处理已成为共和党的政治包袱，即便特朗普继续为战争辩护。
In their initial responses to the massive electoral losses, Republicans acknowledged the effect of the war in Iran and high prices, especially for gasoline, on voters’ attitudes. Vice President Vance, a likely contender to succeed Trump in 2028, explicitly blamed Republicans’ losses on the war in Iran. “The reason we lost is the war,” Vance said in a lengthy post Wednesday on social platform X. “The president himself said so last night.”Vance’s critique was an extraordinary acknowledgment that his administration’s handling of the war has become a political liability for Republicans, even as Trump continues to defend it.
其他共和党人虽未直接批评特朗普，但表示国会是时候对其议程施加更多制衡了。参议员迈克·朗兹（共和党-南达科他州）在接受一名南达科他州记者采访时暗示，共和党可能会开展迟迟未进行的行政部门监督。“我们将竭力尊重总统职位，与总统合作，努力在建设经济方面向前推进，”朗兹说。
Other Republicans, while stopping short of criticizing Trump directly, indicated that the time was ripe for more resistance from Congress to his agenda. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), in an interview with a South Dakota reporter, suggested Republicans may conduct their own long-delayed oversight of the administration. “We'll do our best to respect the office of the presidency, to work with the president, to try to move forward in terms of building our economy,” Rounds said.
“但我们也必须重新审视行政部门做出的一些决定，我们将尝试提出我们的意见，或许能让这些决定好一些。” 资深共和党策略师道格拉斯·海耶对《国会山报》表示，他觉得这次选举失利是“不可避免的”。 “当特朗普否认选民的真实感受，其支持率陷入一场没完没了的‘低到哪里去’的极限挑战，囤积资金并离奇地偏离既定信息时，这场由特朗普一手造成的‘特朗普地震’就已不可避免，”海耶说。“共和党将何去从——无人知晓。”
“But we're also going to have to take a second look at some of the executive branch decisions that have been made, and we'll try to add our two cents in and maybe make them a little bit better.”Douglas Heye, a longtime Republican strategist, told The Hill he felt the election loss was “inevitable.”“As Trump denied the reality of what voters felt and his approval rating became a never-ending limbo contest of how low can it go, hoarding money and veering bizarrely off message, this self-created Trump Quake was inevitable,” Heye said. “Where the party goes from here — no one knows.”
周三，参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默（纽约州）表示，他认为共和党支持尽快结束伊朗战争。舒默说，如果必要，民主党可能会利用“财政大权”切断国防部的资金。
On Wednesday, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) said he thinks there’s Republican support for ending the Iran war as soon as possible. Schumer said Democrats would likely use the “power of the purse” to starve the Defense Department of funding if necessary.
已经有共和党人更公开地呼吁重新思考党纲，而党纲已成为特朗普意愿的同义词。这些批评者中首当其冲的是参议员约翰·科宁（得克萨斯州共和党人），他在初选中败给了特朗普支持的得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿，后者周二又输给了民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科。科宁周三在《华尔街日报》的一篇评论文章中指责特朗普“误读了”选民在2024年赋予他和该党的授权，并列举了关税、“极具侵略性的移民执法”、伊朗战争，以及特朗普发出“脱离现实的信号，专注于反射池游泳池衬垫等花边新闻”。
There are also already Republicans more openly calling for a rethinking of the party platform, which has become synonymous with Trump’s wishes. Chief among those critics is Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who lost his primary to Trump-backed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who subsequently lost to Democrat James Talarico on Tuesday. Cornyn, in an op-ed Wednesday for The Wall Street Journal, accused Trump of “misreading the mandate” that voters gave him and the party in 2024 and cited tariffs, “hyperaggressive immigration enforcement,” the Iran war and Trump signaling "disconnection by focusing on sideshows like swimming-pool liners in the Reflecting Pool.”
科宁还批评本党推举帕克斯顿和众议员迈克·柯林斯等让人讨厌的候选人——后者在佐治亚州的参议院竞选中失利——他们丑闻缠身、品行有瑕疵。科宁写道，共和党失利是因为他们忘记了如何建立政治联盟，反而“缩小了大帐篷”。 “在得克萨斯州，全州候选人博·弗伦奇以公然歧视印裔美国人进一步毒化了氛围，这与林肯和里根的党格格不入。”
Cornyn also criticized his party for promoting unlikeable candidates like Paxton and Rep. Mike Collins — who lost the Senate race in Georgia — with too many scandals and character flaws. Republicans lost because they had forgotten how to build a political coalition and instead “shrank the tent,” Cornyn wrote. “In Texas, statewide candidate Bo French poisoned the well even further with blatant bigotry against Indian-Americans, anathema to the party of Lincoln and Reagan. When nominees show contempt for voters and request a smaller Republican Party, voters oblige them,” Cornyn wrote.
“当提名人对选民表现出蔑视并要求缩小共和党时，选民便会顺从他们，”科宁写道。参议员约翰·柯蒂斯（共和党-犹他州）周二晚在Substack上的一篇文章中指出了类似问题，并呼吁采取哲学层面的解决方案：恢复前总统里根和先驱者们所倡导的保守运动传统价值观。“我们从经验中得知，而不仅仅是理论上，真正的保守政策议程能为人类繁荣创造最大的机会——其标志是强劲的经济机遇、更稳固的家庭与户籍，以及由美国在民主盟友和伙伴协助下主导的全球秩序，”柯蒂斯写道。
Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) implicated similar problems in an essay on Substack Tuesday night and called for a philosophical solution: restoring traditional values of the conservative movement espoused by former President Reagan and the pioneers. “We know from experience, not just theory, that a truly conservative policy agenda fosters the greatest chance for human flourishing—marked by robust economic opportunity, stronger families and households, and a global order led by the United States with help from its democratic allies and partners,” Curtis wrote.
参议员约翰·巴拉索（怀俄明州），共和党党鞭，在X平台上发帖称，“选举结果中有明确的教训”，他“将投身这场斗争”，但并未提供太多细节。“参议院共和党人有机会也有义务向我们的选民表明，我们在为他们而战，”巴拉索写道。“在参议院，我们将积极反对那些将国家推向民主党所拥抱的社会主义的糟糕主张。我们的承诺是常识。”
Sen. John Barrasso (Wyo.), Republican whip, said in a post on X that “there are clear lessons” from the election results and that he’s “here for the fight,” but he did not provide much detail. “Senate Republicans have an opportunity and obligation to show our voters that we are fighting for them,” Barrasso wrote. “In the Senate, we will aggressively oppose terrible ideas that drive our country toward the socialism Democrats embraced. Our commitment is to common sense."
他继续表示，共和党的关注点不应“从首要任务——压低依然顽固高企的物价——上动摇。”迄今为止在共和党内颇具影响力的外部团体也在发表看法，其中一些同样严厉抨击特朗普，另一些则为党的下一步行动提出指引。传统基金会行动组织参议院政府关系总监奇普·怀亚特告诉《国会山报》，他认为共和党政策在投票议题上赢得选民认同之处蕴藏着机遇。
He continued that Republicans' focus should not waver "from the top priority of driving down prices that have remained stubbornly high.”Outside groups that have been influential in the GOP so far are also weighing in, with some equally scorching Trump and others suggesting guideposts for the party’s next moves. Chip Wyatt, government relations director for the Senate at Heritage Action, told The Hill he sees opportunity in the Republican policies that voters aligned with on ballot measures.
例如在加利福尼亚州，选民似乎倾向于否决一项财富税。在科罗拉多州，选民有望通过一项禁止给未成年人实施性别确认手术的投票议题，以及一项要求学生运动员按出生时指定性别参加体育比赛的议题。
In California, for example, voters are looking likely to reject a wealth tax. In Colorado, voters are on track to approve a ballot measure banning gender confirmation surgeries for minors and one requiring student athletes to participate in sports teams according to their sex assigned at birth.
类似的涉及学生运动员的措施在亚利桑那州和内布拉斯加州获得通过，截至周三下午，华盛顿州也有一项类似措施看起来很有希望获得通过。其他州批准了要求选民进行身份证验证或提供公民身份证明才能投票的投票措施，这与共和党极力推动的《保障美国选民资格法案》一致，该法案国会尚未审议。怀亚特表示，这些议题可能成为共和党继续利用以获取民众支持、对抗民主党的“楔子议题”。
Similar measures related to student-athletes passed Arizona and Nebraska, and one was looking likely to pass in Washington state as of Wednesday afternoon. Other states approved ballot measures requiring voter ID verification or proof of citizenship to vote, in line with Republicans’ highly sought Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act that Congress hasn’t taken up. Those issues, Wyatt said, could be “wedges” that Republicans could continue to lean into for popular support against Democrats.
“当我们审视各州时，我们能够看到人们正在投票支持的个别投票措施，再次证明了表面上属于共和党政策的措施表现良好，”怀亚特说。“我认为这为该党未来应当关注的方向提供了一份很好的路线图。”
“When we look at the states, we're able to look at the individual ballot measures that people are voting for, again, like ostensibly Republican policies that are doing well,” Wyatt said. “I think that provides a good road map for things that the party ought to look to for the future.”