共和党在中期选举中遭遇惊人惨败，迫使他们不得不面对一个将塑造2028年初选格局的问题：他们的下一位旗手能否来自特朗普政府内部？
The News Republicans’ stunning midterm defeat is forcing them to confront a question that will shape their 2028 primary: Can their next standard-bearer come from inside the Trump administration?
副总统万斯仍然是接替特朗普总统最显眼的潜在人选，但他在X上发布的直白帖子将周二党派的崩盘归咎于伊朗战争，显示出他意识到这对所有共和党人来说都是通往2028年的政治包袱。而在共和党内部一些角落，关于万斯生存能力的担忧正在酝酿。
Vice President JD Vance remains the most prominent potential successor to President Donald Trump, but his blunt X post pinning the party’s Tuesday collapse on the Iran war showed he’s aware that it’s a political liability for all Republicans heading into 2028. And concerns about Vance’s viability are brewing in some corners of the GOP.
“周二晚间最大的输家，放眼2028年，是万斯，”一位共和党策略师辩称。“2028年的话题已从谁能传承特朗普主义的火炬，转变为谁能从废墟中重建这场运动。”万斯并非唯一一位在中期选后面临新麻烦的、与特朗普有关联的潜在候选人。虽然前议长金里奇认为周二晚间可能为国务卿鲁比奥打开了一条2028年的赛道——鲁比奥已表示没有参选计划——但特朗普圈子里的任何人都可能面临类似的逆风。
“The biggest loser Tuesday night, heading into 2028, was JD Vance,” one Republican strategist argued. “2028 shifted from a conversation about who could carry the torch of Trumpism, to who can rebuild the movement from shambles.”Vance isn’t the only prospective candidate tied to Trump with new problems after the midterms. While former Speaker Newt Gingrich suggested that Tuesday night might have opened a 2028 lane for Secretary of State Marco Rubio — who’s indicated that he has no plans to run — anyone in Trump’s circle could face similar headwinds.
这包括偶尔被传有总统雄心的政府官员，如国防部长赫格塞斯。《Semafor》采访了六位以上身在政府内部或与政府关系密切的共和党人，他们开始怀疑选民是否会接受特朗普挑选的继任者。
That includes administration officials who are occasionally whispered about as harboring presidential ambitions, like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Semafor spoke with more than a half-dozen Republicans, inside and close to the administration, who are starting to doubt that voters will embrace Trump’s chosen successor.
“毫无疑问，这是一场开放的竞争，”一位白宫身边人士谈及即将到来的2028年辩论时表示。
“It’s an open race, no question about it,” one person close to the White House said of the looming 2028 debate.
党内其他人则聚焦于一个更棘手的话题：共和党在2028年是否注定失败，尤其是如果战争拖延、选民继续感受到经济冲击？
Others in the party are focused on an even touchier topic: Are Republicans doomed for 2028, particularly if the war drags on and voters continue feeling the economic effects?
“许多共和党人极不希望唐纳德·特朗普成为2028年的谈资。但他们生活在幻想世界里——现实是，唐纳德·特朗普永远会是共和党话题的重要组成部分，”一位接近白宫的第二位人士说。“真正的问题是：有没有哪位共和党人能赢？”
“There are a lot of Republicans who desperately do not want Donald Trump to be the conversation in 2028. But they’re living in a fantasy world — and the reality is, Donald Trump will always be a big part of the Republican conversation,” said a second person close to the White House. “The actual question is: Can any Republican win?”Outsiders See An Opening Democrats’ huge margin of victory in Tuesday’s popular vote for the House, estimated at 13 points, stemmed in large part from fury over Trump’s handling of the economy. Exit polls showed nearly nine out of 10 voters considered the cost of living as a big factor in their vote, while the majority of voters expressed dissatisfaction with the direction of the country.
外界看到机会 民主党在周二众议院普选票中以估计13个百分点的巨大优势获胜，这在很大程度上源于选民对特朗普经济政策的愤怒。出口民调显示，近十分之九的选民认为生活成本是其投票的重要因素，而大多数选民对国家发展方向表示不满。
As one Trump ally put it, the night was a “disaster” for the GOP.
正如一位特朗普盟友所言，那个夜晚对共和党来说是一场“灾难”。
That’s creating opportunities for Republicans who have kept separate political identities during Trump’s second term. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who lost to Trump in the 2024 primary, acknowledged that the midterms were a “rebuke” of the president. He also amplified Florida’s GOP successes, a rare bright spot for the party on Tuesday.
这为在特朗普第二任期内保持独立政治身份的共和党人创造了机会。佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯曾在2024年初选中败给特朗普，他承认中期选举是对总统的“谴责”。他同时也宣扬佛罗里达州共和党的胜利，这是该党周二罕见的亮点。
Some Republicans who were critical of DeSantis during his 2024 run suggested to Semafor this week that they and other doubters would be quieter in 2028 if he chose to run.
一些在德桑蒂斯2024年竞选期间持批评态度的共和党人本周向Semafor表示，如果他选择在2028年参选，他们和其他怀疑者会保持沉默。
Others are more skeptical that Trump defenders (and Trump himself) could resist the temptation to attack DeSantis, particularly if he campaigns with more direct criticism of the president.
其他人则更怀疑特朗普的捍卫者（以及特朗普本人）能否抵制攻击德桑蒂斯的诱惑，特别是如果他以更直接批评总统的方式竞选的话。
Walking a more middle road when it comes to anti-Trump sentiment is Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who has long previewed a potential run. Cruz described the midterm results as “a Watergate-level repudiation,” blaming Trump’s tariffs and the dragging war — both of which he voted to affirm — as well as a disconnect between extreme wealth and everyday Americans.
在反特朗普情绪方面走中间路线的是得克萨斯州参议员泰德·克鲁兹，他长期以来一直预示可能参选。克鲁兹将中期选举结果描述为“水门事件级别的否定”，将责任归咎于特朗普的关税和拖沓的战争——他曾投票支持这两项政策——以及极度财富与普通美国民众之间的脱节。万斯的“案情分析”副总统在社交媒体上的选后复盘展示了他的平衡术：既支持特朗普，又为自己的政治未来着想。
Vance’s Theory of the Case The vice president’s social media postmortem showcased his balancing act: supporting Trump while looking toward his own political future.
“我们输掉选举的原因是战争，”万斯在X平台上写道。“总统本人昨晚也这么说了。”
“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance wrote on X. “The president himself said so last night.”
万斯的盟友认为，如果他决定参选，他可能是唯一一个与特朗普关系足够紧密、能够在不付出惨重代价的情况下与总统决裂的候选人。其中一位盟友将其描述为创造空间，让他能“做他自己，而不必批评或疏远总统”。特朗普对副总统对中期选举的评估似乎并不在意，他在站在记者面前时表示，“这在很大程度上是事实”，同时坚持他发动战争的决定。
Vance’s allies argue that, if he decides to run, he might be the only candidate close enough to Trump to break from the president without paying harsh consequences. One of those allies described it as creating space to be “his own man without criticizing or alienating the president.”Trump seemed unbothered by the vice president’s assessment of the midterms, telling reporters “it’s largely true” while standing by his decision to go to war.
然而，自冲突爆发以来，万斯拒绝明确表示反对；他的观点只通过微妙的举动流露出来，比如主导与德黑兰的谈判。金里奇指出，由于“在伊朗问题上的拖延战略适得其反”，万斯2028年参选的“光彩在很大程度上已经褪去”。特朗普的视角特朗普不急于关注2028年大选，也不急于发布任何背书。本周早些时候被问及此事时，他告诉记者，他和万斯“谈论很多事情”，并强调最终任何人都可能加入竞选。
Yet Vance has declined to clearly oppose the conflict since it began; his views have emerged in subtle gestures, like taking the lead on negotiations with Tehran. As Gingrich put it, “a good bit of the luster has come off the bloom” for Vance 2028, thanks to the “go-slow strategy blowing up in Iran.”The View From Trump Trump is in no rush to focus on 2028, or issue any sort of endorsement. Asked about the topic earlier this week, he told reporters that he speaks with Vance “about a lot of things” and emphasized that anyone could ultimately jump into the race.
“你不知道谁在谈论参选，”特朗普说。“将会有人参选……也许会有很多人参选。也许没人会参选。也许[万斯]不会参选。我不知道谁会参选。”谢尔比的观点共和党刚刚经历的这种选举灾难，必然会引发对未来的恐慌和焦虑。但中期选举浮现出一个我经常听到的问题：万斯能否在特朗普离场后的岁月里成功领导这个党派？
“You don’t know who’s talking about running,” Trump said. “You’re going to have people running … maybe a lot of people running. Maybe nobody’s going to run. Maybe [Vance] won’t run. I don’t know who’s going to run.”Shelby’s view Electoral catastrophes, like the ones Republicans just experienced, are bound to prompt panic and hand-wringing about the future. But the midterms have surfaced a question that I hear a lot: Can successfully lead this party for the years after Trump leaves the stage?
共和党2028年的潜在参选人进退维谷。以反特朗普人物身份参选将面临风险；以忠于特朗普的身份参选则会带来另一套问题。
The GOP’s 2028 hopefuls are damned if they do, damned if they don’t. Running as an anti-Trump figure will carry risks; running on loyalty to him will pose separate problems.
最大的未知数是特朗普本人。如果他能找到结束战争的办法，并在未来两年重新聚焦于赢回美国人的信任，他就能为继任者留下一条更清晰的道路。
The biggest unknown is Trump himself. If he can find a way to wind down the war and refocus on earning back Americans’ trust over the next two years, he could leave his successor with a clearer path.
备受瞩目的伊利诺伊州民主党州长普里茨克也被视为2028年潜在候选人，他已试图将万斯与特朗普紧密捆绑：他本周告诉CNN，万斯“正在推销”那些让选民反感的政策。
Notable Democratic Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, seen as a potential 2028 candidate as well, is already trying to tie Vance closely to Trump: He told CNN this week Vance “is out promoting” the policies that have turned off voters.
鲁比奥在接受《纽约时报》采访时，否认了他计划离开特朗普政府的说法。
Rubio dismissed the idea that he is planning to leave the Trump administration in comments to The New York Times.
民主党数据科学家大卫·肖尔告诉Vox，伊朗战争如何影响了特朗普在中期选举中的支持率：“此前，选民对他的经济管理的信任是支撑他的唯一因素。但伊朗战争摧毁了这一点。”
Democratic data scientist David Shor told Vox how the Iran war impacted Trump’s approval in the midterms: “Previously, voters’ trust in his economic management was the one thing propping him up. But the Iran war destroyed it.”