2028年共和党初选的争夺战在共和党遭遇毁灭性中期选举失利后开始成形，副总统万斯因将失利归咎于伊朗战争而面临批评，其他共和党大佬也似乎在确立各自的立场。
The fight for the 2028 Republican primary is beginning to take shape on the heels of the GOP’s devastating midterm losses, with Vice President Vance facing criticism for blaming the losses on the Iran war and other big-name Republicans appearing to stake out their own positions.
这些失利为共和党白宫竞选人（包括佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯和得克萨斯州参议员泰德·克鲁兹）挑战万斯创造了巨大空间。
The losses have created a huge opening for GOP White House hopefuls, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), to go against Vance.
这似乎是万斯已意识到的事实，他迅速将历史性惨败归咎于伊朗战争和整个共和党。
It’s a fact seemingly recognized by Vance, who was quick to blame the Iran war for the historic drubbings, and Republicans at large.
“考虑到失利的规模，选举结果对党内每一位领袖都是坏消息，但对万斯2028年的前景打击尤为严重，”凯文·马登说，他是资深共和党策略师，曾担任米特·罗姆尼2012年总统竞选的高级顾问。
“The election results were bad news for every leader across the party, given the scale of the losses, but they were particularly tough for Vance’s 2028 prospects,” said Kevin Madden, the veteran Republican strategist who served as a senior adviser on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.
马登补充说：“万斯现在处于忠诚副总统的位置，服务于一位支持率在30多岁、且其对党派未来的影响力可能存疑的跛脚鸭总统。”
“Vance is now in the position of serving as a loyal vice president to a lame-duck president whose approval rating is in the 30’s and whose influence on the future of the party could be in question,” Madden added.
万斯长期被视为接替特朗普总统成为共和党旗手的领跑者。紧随其后的是国务卿马可·鲁比奥。
Vance has long been seen as the front-runner to succeed President Trump as the GOP standard-bearer. A close second has been Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
但共和党内部现在开始质疑，一位与政府没有直接联系的候选人是否会更强。
But questions are now being raised by Republicans over whether a candidate not directly tied to the administration would be stronger.
“周二清楚地表明，副总统万斯和鲁比奥国务卿身上的‘臭味’可能太重，难以克服，因为这次选举是对他们工作表现的公投，”一位与德桑蒂斯交谈过的共和党高级操盘手说。
“Tuesday made clear that the stink on Vice President Vance and Secretary [Marco] Rubio may be too much to overcome as the election was a referendum on the job they are doing,” said one top GOP operative who has spoken to DeSantis.
这位操盘手补充说：“如果他们愿意在一个可能根本赢不了的年份参选，这当然为德桑蒂斯、克鲁兹和其他人开辟了一条赛道。”
“This certainly creates a lane for DeSantis, Cruz and others if they are willing to run in a potentially impossible year to win,” the operative added.
万斯将失利归咎于伊朗，从而在一定程度上与他的老板拉开距离。特朗普方面则加倍坚持，坚称他的政府发动战争是正确决定。
In blaming the losses on Iran, Vance put some daylight between himself and his boss. Trump, for his part, has doubled down in insisting his administration made the right decision to start the war.
“万斯作为候选人的形象直接与特朗普的政治遗产挂钩。如果一位2028年的候选人无法打造出更独特、更独立的个人形象，将在未来两年的周期中面临挑战，”马登预测道。
“Vance’s profile as a candidate is directly tied to the Trump legacy. A candidate for 2028 without an ability to craft a more unique, independent profile of their own will face challenges in this next two-year cycle,” Madden predicted.
一位向《国会山报》透露情况的共和党操盘手表示，如果没有实质性变化，2028年“将是共和党总统竞争者艰难的一年”。该操盘手称，如果没有变化，德桑蒂斯可能会等到2032年再竞选总统。过去48小时左右，德桑蒂斯的言行确实像是一个心系白宫的人。
The GOP operative who spoke to The Hill said 2028 “is going to be a difficult year for Republican presidential contenders if there aren’t substantial changes.”If there aren’t changes, the operative said DeSantis might wait until 2032 to run for president. DeSantis over the last 48 hours or so has certainly sounded like someone with the White House on his mind.
这位佛罗里达州州长曾在2024年未能成功挑战特朗普争取共和党提名，他是本周最早对共和党候选人失利原因提出尖锐见解的人之一，指向伊朗战争和高油价。
The Florida governor, who unsuccessfully challenged Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024, was among the first this week to offer his own pointed view on what went wrong for GOP candidates, pointing to the war in Iran and high gas prices.
在接受SiriusXM主持人史蒂芬·A·史密斯采访时，他指责党内一些人通过不承认选民的经济焦虑来对选民进行“煤气灯效应”式欺骗。
In an interview with SiriusXM host Stephen A. Smith, he accused some in his party of “gaslighting” voters by not acknowledging their economic anxiety.
德桑蒂斯还指出，佛罗里达州的“红墙”站稳了脚跟，共和党在那里赢得了一场参议院竞选和一场州长竞选。这似乎是一个指向他州领导力的论据。
DeSantis has also pointed out that the red wall in Florida, where the GOP won a Senate race and a gubernatorial contest, held. That’s an argument that would seem to point toward his leadership of the state.
共和党确实在三个经过重新划分选区以给共和党候选人优势的选区失去了众议院席位，并在第四个选区落后。州长和参议院竞选的结果也比预期更接近。但德桑蒂斯当然可以主张他的州是共和党的堡垒。
Republicans did lose three House races in districts that were redrawn to give GOP candidates an edge, and they are behind in a fourth. The gubernatorial and Senate races were also closer than expected. But DeSantis can certainly make an argument about his state being a GOP bastion.
在选举前，克鲁兹对其竞选总统的雄心更为坦率，表示将在中期选举后考虑2028年参选的想法。
Cruz ahead of the elections had been more transparent about his ambition to run for president, saying he would entertain the idea of a 2028 run after the midterms.
在他的播客节目中，克鲁兹将此次失利比作水门事件后共和党遭受的惨败，这一比较似乎至少提出了腐败问题是否为共和党这个糟糕夜晚的一个因素。他还批评特朗普的关税和伊朗战争推高了成本。
On his podcast, Cruz compared the losses to the drubbing Republicans took after Watergate, a comparison that would seem to at least raise the issue of corruption as being a factor in the GOP’s terrible night. He also criticized the Trump tariffs and the Iran war for raising costs.
“食品太贵。汽油太贵。柴油太贵。保险太贵。生活太贵，”他说。共和党策士预测，周二的结果出来后，他们的初选将会十分悬念。
“Food is too high. Gas is too high. Diesel is too high. Insurance is too high. Life is too high,” he said. GOP strategists predict that after Tuesday’s results, their primary will be wide open.
“一位前特朗普竞选团队助理说，‘凡斯对任何能够准确评估我们周二所收到的贴纸原因的共和党人来说，都是完全不可接受的。’‘这不仅为其他人打开了大门，也应当彻底关闭凡斯的门。’其他共和党人表示，周二的结果迫使凡斯必须提前表明立场，否则将面临更拥挤的竞争场面。”
“Vance is completely unacceptable to any Republican who can accurately assess the reasons for the pasting we received on Tuesday,” one former Trump campaign aide said. “It not only opens the door for others, it should soundly shut the door for JD Vance.”Other Republicans say Tuesday’s results force Vance to stake his claim early or face the consequences of a more crowded field.
“资深共和党策略家苏珊·德尔·佩尔西奥说，‘凡斯需要先得到总统的背书后再宣布。’‘如果他在一月不这么做，就会被视为软弱，大家都会知道总统并不支持他。这就是价值百万美元的问题：他是否已失去总统的青睐？’”一位要求匿名以提供坦率评估的前特朗普助理说，目前“对其他共和党人来说，进入竞选的空间更多而不是更少”。
“Vance needs to announce first with the president’s endorsement,” said Susan Del Percio, the veteran Republican strategist. “If he doesn’t do it in January, it’ll look like a sign of weakness and everyone will know the president isn’t on board. And that’s the million dollar question: Is he out of favor with the president?”One former Trump aide — who asked for anonymity to offer a candid assessment — said that right now, there’s “more space than less space” for other Republicans to enter the race.
“这位前助理说，‘说实话，克鲁兹和德桑蒂斯是我们党前晚的赢家。’‘这绝对是特朗普时代的开端。’”该前助理补充说，特朗普“仍将在初选中是一个强大的力量。如果他支持你，那就直接拿下30%的选票”。但这位前助理预测，凡斯很难与特朗普保持距离，并且会被限定在自己的立场上。
“Let’s face it, Cruz and DeSantis were the winners in our party the other night,” the former aide said. “This is absolutely the beginning of the end of the Trump era.”The former aide added that Trump “is still going to be a potent force in the primary. If he endorses you, that’s 30 percent right off the bat.”But the former aide predicted it would be difficult for Vance to keep his distance from Trump and that he would be pigeonholed to his stances.
“想象一下，他每天都要对特朗普的心血来潮或当天的怒斥作出回应，”该前助理说。“而且他不可能与总统形成鲜明对立，因为特朗普会抨击他。“那根本不是一个令人羡慕的处境，”该前助理补充道。
“Imagine, he’s going to have to answer to Trump’s whim or rant of the day every day,” the former aide said. “And he’s not going to stand in stark contrast to the president because Trump will shred him. “That’s just not an enviable place,” the former aide added.
选举以来，万斯一直受到共和党和民主党双方的审视。曾在 former President George W. Bush 手下任职的前白宫新闻秘书阿里·弗莱舍在社交平台X上发文，反驳万斯对共和党惨败的评估。
Since the elections, Vance has been under scrutiny from both Republicans and Democrats. Former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, who served under former President George W. Bush, took to social platform X to counter Vance’s evaluation of the sweeping GOP losses.
“请允许我提出一个不同的视角，”弗莱舍说。“问题不在于伊朗战争，而在于停火。如果你发动了一场战争，你就需要赢下它并结束它——否则就不要发动。”民主党人也抓住万斯的言论大做文章。
“Please allow me to present a different perspective,” Fleischer said. “The problem was not the Iran War. It was the cease fire. If you start a war, you need to win it and finish it – otherwise don’t start it.”Democrats also pounced on Vance’s remarks.
“在我们仍有5万军队驻扎中东的情况下，你把这归结为简单的政治算计，这是我见过的最粗鄙、最愤世嫉俗的事情之一，”参议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金（民主党-密歇根州）周三在X上写道。“你和特朗普总统把我们拖入这场战争，既没有明确的目标，也不顾美国人民的意愿。它让我们付出了美国人的生命和数十亿美元的美国财富，而且看不到尽头。”周四，当政治评论人士说特朗普时代已经终结时，共和党人表示，万斯的政治前途充其量仍然不明朗。
“For you to reduce it to a simple political calculation while we still have 50,000 troops in the Middle East, is one of the most crass, cynical things I’ve seen,” Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), wrote Wednesday on X. “You and President Trump got us into this war without a clear objective and without regard for the will of the American people. It’s cost us American lives and billions of dollars of American treasure with no end in sight.”On Thursday, as political pundits were saying it was the end of the Trump era, Republicans said Vance’s political future remained murky at best.
“我认为，如果你是万斯，你就得接受提名，并祈祷对方推出一个像亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯那样的人，”第一位前特朗普助手说，他指的是这位来自纽约的进步派众议员。
“I think if you’re Vance you gotta take the nomination and pray you get someone on the other side like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,” the first former Trump aide said, referring to the progressive representative from New York.
德尔佩尔乔说，就目前而言，抛开选举结果不谈，万斯“最终仍处于三周前他所处的同一位置”。
For now, Del Percio said, results aside, Vance “ultimately stands in the same place he did three weeks ago.”
“他的存在完全取决于总统的一时意愿，”她说。“如果特朗普不背书，万斯会在没有总统背书的情况下参选吗？如果他被迫这样做，他就会与特朗普决裂，而事情会变得很难看。”
“He only exists at the whim of the president,” she said. “And if Trump doesn’t endorse, will Vance go without the president’s endorsement? If he’s forced to do that, he will break with Trump and it will get ugly.”