周二，共和党在一场蓝色浪潮中失去了得克萨斯州，这在一定程度上是由拉美裔选民因唐纳德·特朗普总统强硬的大规模驱逐策略而倒戈所推动的。
On Tuesday, Republicans lost Texas in a blue wave driven in part by the defection of Latino voters over President Donald Trump’s heavy-handed mass deportation strategy.
周五，该策略的设计师、特朗普任职时间最长、争议最大的助手之一斯蒂芬·米勒获得晋升，出任白幕僚长。
On Friday, the architect of that strategy, Stephen Miller, one of Trump’s longest-serving and most controversial aides, got a promotion to White House chief of staff.
很难不将这两个事实联系起来，并质疑特朗普及其白宫从美国历史上最大规模的选举浪潮之一中吸取了什么教训。
It’s hard not to look at those two facts and wonder what lesson Trump and his White House are taking from one of the largest electoral waves in US history.
特朗普还在期中选举前后举办活动，展示其倒影池翻修工程、白宫舞厅项目以及凯旋门建设规划，这说明他对选民当前情绪缺乏敏感度，选民似乎认为他们的民选官员已脱离群众。
Trump also bookended the midterms with events showcasing his Reflecting Pool renovations, his White House ballroom project and plans for his triumphal arch, which speaks to his tin ear on the current mood of voters who seem to think their elected officials are out of touch.
选民将温和派送入国会，但总统却提拔他最强硬的助手，让其在耳边低语、掌控其时间并执行其意志。
The voters sent moderates to Congress, but the president is elevating his most hard-line aide to whisper in his ear, guard his time and execute his will.
特朗普一贯凭直觉行事，在常规智慧和数据建议他向左时，他偏向右。
Trump has made a career of following his gut and zagging when conventional wisdom and data told him to zig.
提拔米勒一事上，数据指的就是得克萨斯州的失守，该州是共和党在全国大选中的防火墙。而共和党在得州失利的一个主要原因是拉美裔选民。
In the case of elevating Miller, the data is the loss of Texas, Republicans’ firewall in national elections. And one big reason Republicans lost in Texas is Latinos.
根据CNN的出口民调，2024年特朗普在得州赢得了拉美裔选民。根据CNN选民民调，2026年拉美裔选民中65%支持挑战特朗普盟友、州长格雷格·阿博特的民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨。
In 2024, Trump won Latino voters in Texas, according to CNN’s exit polls. In 2026, according to CNN Voter Polls, Latinos went 65% to Democrat Gina Hinojosa, who was challenging Trump ally Gov. Greg Abbott.
是什么导致了这一逆转？大约三分之二的拉美裔选民表示特朗普政府的移民行动做得太过火了——而持这种看法的人中，近九成支持民主党。
What drove that reversal? How about the fact that around two-thirds of Latino voters said the Trump administration’s immigration actions had gone too far — and those who felt that way split nearly 9 to 1 in favor of the Democrats?
因此，将政府移民执法行动的设计师提拔为幕僚长，从政治角度来看至少是一个令人费解的选择。
So elevating the architect of the administration’s immigration enforcement actions as chief of staff is a curious choice politically, to say the least.
但尽管特朗普曾谈到与民主党搞好关系以推进议程，那将违背他迄今为止的执政风格。
But while Trump has talked about making nice with Democrats to get things done, that would be contrary to his governing style so far.
提拔米勒，则感觉像是特朗普在为以国会监督形式出现的战争做准备。即将离任的幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯是美国历史上首位担任该职务的女性，她的形象是一位回避媒体、严守特朗普接触渠道的“守门人”。
Elevating Miller, on the other hand, feels like Trump preparing for war in the form of congressional oversight. Outgoing chief of staff Susie Wiles, the first woman in US history to hold the job, had the profile of a gatekeeper who shied away from the media and guarded access to Trump.
米勒的形象则是一位捍卫特朗普权力的“顾问”。如果幕僚长的职责是给白宫带来秩序，那么看看这位以“街头斗士”著称的男子上任后局势会如何变化，将会很有意思。
Miller has the profile of a consigliere who guards Trump’s power. If the job of the chief of staff is to impose order at the White House, it will be interesting to see how things change under a man with a reputation as a street fighter.
民主党势头正盛，即将以巨大优势掌控国会山，拥有传票权力，并对特朗普第二任期初期对政府施加的“震慑与威慑”行动感到义愤填膺。如果总统预料到椭圆形办公室将如同地堡一般，让米勒担任其得力助手完全合情合理。
Democrats are on the rise, about to be running Capitol Hill with large majorities, subpoena power and a righteous indignation at the shock and awe Trump inflicted on the government in the early days of his second term. If the president anticipates the Oval Office being like a bunker, having Miller as his right hand makes total sense.
米勒以好斗的采访风格著称，他在采访中以极大化的观点维护特朗普的权力、以不妥协的赞誉歌颂特朗普的能力，往往压倒提问者。那些最具争议、用以考验美国宪法的想法，经常可以追溯到米勒。
Miller is known for combative interviews in which he steamrolls over questioners with a maximalist view of Trump’s power and an uncompromising praise of Trump’s abilities. The most controversial ideas to test the US Constitution can frequently be traced back to Miller.
米勒当然一直负责特朗普的国内政策，但他在白宫的职权范围早已远远超出移民领域。他曾就经济、外交和军事政策代表特朗普发声。
Miller, of course, has been in charge of Trump’s domestic policy, but he has long had a portfolio that expands well beyond immigration at the White House. He has spoken for Trump on economic, foreign and military policy.
在特朗普第二任期初期，内阁部长、国家安全官员和副总统万斯的 Signal 群聊意外泄露时，米勒似乎是那个代表特朗普发声的人。
When Signal chats among Cabinet secretaries, national security officials and Vice President JD Vance were accidentally leaked early in Trump’s second term, Miller was the one who seemed to be speaking for Trump.
特朗普通常喜欢在记者面前多逗留片刻，但周五他在登上“海军一号”直升机前，撑着伞站在那里，言辞简短。
Normally one to linger with reporters, Trump was terse on Friday while he stood under an umbrella before getting on Marine One.
“他懂，”特朗普谈到米勒时说，“政治上非常敏锐……管理能力很强，”他补充道。
“He gets it,” Trump said of Miller. “Very good politically… great manager,” he added.
保守派资深政治评论员斯科特·詹宁斯在《卡西·亨特竞技场》节目中表示，没人应该把米勒的晋升与特朗普优先事项的转变混为一谈。
Scott Jennings, a conservative and senior political commentator for CNN, said on “The Arena with Kasie Hunt” that nobody should confuse Miller’s ascent with a shift in Trump’s priorities.
“我们有时谈论这些人时，仿佛他们是独立行事的操盘手，拥有为所欲为的许可证，”詹宁斯说。“他们不是。他们是幕僚。他们为美国总统工作。他在移民问题上是个强硬派。”特朗普表示，怀尔斯将转入他的政治运作团队，而他拥有庞大的竞选资金储备。由于宪法禁止他寻求连任，特朗普只能通过支持其他候选人，在其白宫任期于2029年1月结束后，继续对共和党施加影响。
“We talk about these people sometimes as though they’re independent operators and that they have license to do whatever they want,” Jennings said. “They don’t. They’re staff. They work for the president of the United States. He’s a hardliner on immigration.”Wiles will move over to Trump’s political operation, said the president, who has a massive war chest of campaign coin. Since he is barred by the Constitution from seeking another term, it is through support of other candidates that Trump can continue to exert influence over Republicans after his time in the White House ends in January 2029.
特朗普政府以前经历过类似情况。今年早些时候，联邦移民执法人员击毙美国公民亚历克斯·普雷蒂和勒内·古德后，当时的国土安全部长克里斯蒂·诺姆被解职、边境巡逻官员格雷格·博维诺被边缘化，被视为政府的纠偏举措。但米勒——始终笼罩在整个事件之上——依然稳坐钓鱼台。
The Trump administration has been here before. After federal immigration officers killed US citizens Alex Pretti and Renee Good earlier this year, the firing of then-DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and the sidelining of Border Patrol official Greg Bovino were seen as corrective maneuvers by the administration. But Miller — who hovered over all of it — has remained entrenched.
全国略超三分之一的选民，即36%，表示移民问题是决定其投票的关键因素。共和党赢得了这些选民中的绝大多数。换句话说，若还有什么议题能继续激发特朗普的基本盘，那就是这个。他从未试图通过施政来给全国大多数民众留下好印象或安抚他们，而是始终以基本盘为出发点。斯蒂芬·米勒是他担任幕僚长的自然人选。
A little more than a third of voters nationwide, 36%, said immigration was crucial to their vote. Republicans won the lion’s share of those voters. To the extent there is an issue still motivating Trump’s base, in other words, this is it. And he has never governed trying to impress or appease most of the country, but rather with that base in mind. Stephen Miller is the natural choice to be his chief of staff.