特斯拉将于明年在其得克萨斯州超级工厂停产 Cybertruck。
Tesla will end production of the Cybertruck at its Texas Gigafactory next year.
这款电动汽车具有独特的毒性，既源于其极具争议的设计，也源于埃隆·马斯克的种种行为。这种毒性无疑导致了销量不佳，再加上多次召回。
It’s a uniquely toxic electric vehicle, between its divisive design and Elon Musk’s embrace of you name it. That toxicity certainly contributed to subpar sales, along with a number of recalls.
但 Cybertruck 的终结也是另一个迹象，表明大型电动汽车——尤其是大型卡车——的时代正在消退。这对行人和骑车者的安全是个好消息，在更多人需要驾驶电动汽车的当下，对电池供应链也是个好消息。
But the end of the Cybertruck is also another sign that the era of big EVs—particularly big trucks—is waning. That’s great news for pedestrian and biker safety, but also for the battery supply chain at a time when more people need to get behind the electric wheel.
Cybertruck 使用一块巨大的 123 千瓦时电池，重量约 1600 磅（约合 726 公斤），约占整车重量的四分之一。这与已停产的福特 F-150 Lightning 所用电池规模相当。福特这款巨无霸的电池容量范围为 98 至 131 千瓦时。（福特还在 2024 年叫停了一款三排座电动车。）两款卡车在一年内相继停产，而车企纷纷宣布推出大量小型电动车以及配备增程电动马达的燃油车，表明市场可能正在发生转变。
The Cybertruck uses a massive 123 kilowatt-hour battery that clocks in at around 1,600 pounds, or around a quarter of its weight. That’s on par with the battery that powered Ford’s F-150 Lightning, another electric truck that was canceled late last year. (The company also killed a three-row EV in 2024.) Ford’s behemoth batteries ranged from 98 kilowatt-hours up to 131 kilowatt-hours. Seeing both trucks canceled within a year of each other, while automakers have announced a bevy of smaller EVs and gas-powered autos with electric motors that can extend range, indicates there may be a shift afoot.
福特计划明年推出 Fathom。这款售价 3 万美元以下的电动皮卡预计尺寸将与福特紧凑型燃油皮卡 Maverick 相当。虽然福特尚未公布不同配置版本的电池容量，但可以肯定不会接近 F-150 Lightning 或 Cybertruck 的规模。福特还计划以增程版形式重新推出 Lightning。
Ford is planning to launch the Fathom next year. The sub-$30,000 electric pickup is expected to be about the size of the automaker’s compact gas-powered Maverick pickup. Though Ford hasn’t announced the battery sizes available in various trims, it’s a safe bet they won’t be anywhere near the size of the F-150 Lightning or Cybertruck. The company is also planning to relaunch the Lightning as an extended-range model.
初创公司 Slate 也将推出一款微型电动皮卡，可改装为 SUV，基础版起售价低于 2.5 万美元。它同样搭载轻量化电池，并获得大量预订——尽管公平地说，Cybertruck 当初预订量也很大，结果我们也看到了。
Startup Slate is also launching a tiny electric pickup that can be converted to an SUV, with a bare-bones base model starting below $25,000. It also features a svelte battery and has seen a massive surge in preorders—though, to be fair, so did the Cybertruck, and we saw that turned out.
还有 Rivian R2，它于今年发布。虽然这款 SUV 并不像福特和 Slate 的车型那样微型或便宜——其电池容量为 88 千瓦时，重量约为 1200 磅（约 544 公斤）——但它仍比该公司旗舰车型 R1S 更小。Rivian 还预告了 R3，这是一款在未来几年将推出的、尺寸更加紧凑的 SUV。
Then there’s the Rivian R2, which launched this year. While the SUV isn’t as tiny or cheap as Ford and Slate’s vehicles—its battery has 88 kilowatt-hours of capacity and weighs in at around 1,200 pounds—it’s still smaller than the company’s flagship R1S. Rivian has also teased the R3, an even more-slimmed down SUV, in the coming years.
这并不意味着大型电动汽车已成过去。例如，起亚 EV9 位列美国电动汽车销量前十，R1S 也是如此。福特 F-150 Lightning 在二手车市场也十分火爆。但其余进入新车销量前十的电动车，全是跨界车、轿车或中型 SUV，电池容量适中；而且多款新发布的电动车正朝着小型化方向发展，或作为增程式车型运作。
That’s not to say big EVs are dead. The Kia EV9, for example, is among the top 10 EVs by sales in the US, as is the R1S. There’s also a torrid resale market for the F-150 Lightning. But the rest of the top 10 new EV sales are all crossovers, sedans, or mid-sized SUVs with moderately sized batteries, and a number of newly announced EVs are trending on the smaller side or function as extended range vehicles.
制造更小的车型，当然是降低电动汽车成本的一种途径。由于需要推动的重量减轻，可以依赖更小的电池。鉴于电池包是电动汽车成本最高的部件，这反过来又能帮助车企在众多消费品价格飙升的当下，推出更实惠的车型。这其中也包括当前的电动车：根据 Cox Automotive 的数据，新款电动车的平均成交价现已达 55800 美元。
Building smaller vehicles is, of course, one way to make EVs cheaper. With less weight to propel, you can rely on a smaller battery. And given that the battery pack is the most costly component of an EV, that can in turn help automakers offer more affordable vehicles at a time when the price of so many other consumer goods is skyrocketing. That includes the current crop of EVs: The average transaction price for a new model is now $55,800, according to Cox Automotive.
走“小型化”路线——或者至少是“更小”一点——还意味着充分利用有限的电池供应链。绝大多数 Cybertruck 车主用车场景，与现代 Ioniq 5 车主如出一辙：买菜、通勤、接送孩子去踢足球。但标准续航版 Ioniq 5 车主完成这些任务，所用电池容量仅约为前者的一半。
Going small—or smaller, anyway—also means making the most of a limited battery supply chain. The vast majority of Cybertruck drivers are doing the same thing with their vehicles as Hyundai Ioniq 5 drivers: getting groceries, commuting, and driving kids to soccer games. But a standard range Ioniq 5 driver is doing it with a battery about half the size.
在唐纳德·特朗普总统的政府去年取消电动汽车激励措施后，销量暴跌。伊朗战争和油价上涨引发了人们对电动汽车的兴趣回升，尽管销量仍落后于全球平均水平。（二手混合动力车销量也有所回升，反映出人们在加油时感受到的痛苦。）即使由民主党控制国会，特朗普政府恢复电动汽车激励措施的可能性，大约相当于国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯在他的电子邮件签名中加入代词的可能性。但如果民主党在2028年夺回白宫，标志着“觉醒2.0”的顶峰，对潜在电动汽车买家的支持就更有可能出现。
After President Donald Trump’s administration killed EV incentives last year, sales plummeted. The Iran War and rising gas prices have led to an uptick in interest, though sales still lag behind the global average. (Used hybrid sales have also picked up, reflecting the pain people have been feeling at the pump.) Even with a Democratic-controlled Congress, EV incentives coming back under Trump are about as likely as defense secretary Pete Hegseth putting pronouns in his email signature. But should Democrats take the White House in 2028, marking the culmination of Woke 2.0, support for would-be EV buyers becomes much more likely.
如果发生这种情况，正在转向生产小型车的汽车制造商将处于更有利的位置，以满足被压抑的需求，同时也能降低交付延迟的风险。
Automakers pivoting to smaller cars could be much better-positioned to meet pent-up demand if that happens, while also lowering the risks of delivery delays.
即使是埃隆·马斯克宣布停产Cybertruck（赛博皮卡），也指明了市场的走向：他声称特斯拉停产是为了腾出产能，全力生产更多Cybercabs（赛博出租车）。那些车辆的电池容量？仅为48千瓦时。
Even Elon’s announcement killing the Cybertruck points to where the market is heading: He claims Tesla is ending production to make room for cranking out more Cybercabs. The battery size in those vehicles? Just 48 kilowatt-hours.