Democrats notched historic victories in the midterm elections. That doesn’t mean winning back the White House in 2028 will be easy.

Party figures are quickly turning to what could be their most unpredictable and rancorous presidential primary in decades. While Democrats are riding high off the punishing blow they delivered to Republicans on Tuesday, the next election is likely to expose their divisions over the party’s direction and how best to win over voters.

No Democrat has yet emerged as the clear frontrunner in a field that might include a dozen contenders or more. The eventual standard bearer will have to contend with a different, and potentially tougher, political environment than today’s.

The midterms largely served as a referendum on Donald Trump’s unpopular presidency, and he is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term in 2028. Polls show voters also dislike the Democratic Party, which has long been riven by infighting between progressive and establishment factions.

“This was a repudiation of Donald Trump and the Republicans,” said Rahm Emanuel, the former congressman and Chicago mayor who is among those weighing a bid for president. He said Democrats must make progress on ethics reform, raising the minimum wage and overhauling Trump’s tariffs. “What people want is not more of the same, it’s change.”The midterm’s conclusion traditionally marks the unofficial start of the next presidential campaign. A number of Democratic groups are hosting gatherings in the coming weeks to kick off the debate about where the party is headed and what will work in 2028. A host of Democrats have already laid the groundwork for bids by hiring staff, traveling to early states and meeting with donors.

The size and scope of Democrats’ wins has intensified focus on the strength of individual contenders and internal policy debates over issues including taxes, Medicaid expansion immigration, transgender rights and the US-Israel relationship. Earlier: The 2028 Hopefuls Rising and Falling After Democrats’ Big Night The midterms gave both sides wins to point to, though the capture of the Senate was in large part due to the success of candidates who ran as centrists or prairie populists in traditional Republican strongholds, including Texas’ James Talarico, South Carolina’s Annie Andrews, Kansas’ Adam Hamilton and Iowa’s Josh Turek.

Matt Bennett, co-founder of the centrist group Third Way, argued that “the mass of the majority was made by the moderates,” he said. “The big question is do the 28ers look at the data and the math or do they look at their phones.”Those victories in red states showed Democrats are capable of assembling a broad coalition that’s needed in a presidential year. But they will be hard pressed to repeat that success and overcome the party’s broadly tarnished brand.

Polling ahead of Election Day suggested that while voters wanted change and were unhappy with Trump, views of the Democratic Party remained negative. A recent NBC News survey showed that 29% of voters saw the party positively, compared with 38% who held positive views of Republicans. About half of all voters said they had a negative impression of both parties.

More broadly, the year revealed a hunger for someone who could position themselves as a Washington outsider and a fighter. Democratic primary voters supported a number of progressive and anti-establishment candidates in states including Florida and New York, as well as in the Michigan Senate primary, in which Abdul El-Sayed defeated Representative Haley Stevens.

It remains to be seen whether a governor or a prominent lawmaker considered to be a presidential hopeful could harness that same energy.

“2026 proves that this is a moment for outsiders over political insiders and corporate accountability warriors over those do the bidding of giant corporations. That will be a challenge for any Democrat who is seen as a creature of the inside or has no reputation for challenging corporate power,” said Adam Green of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

Some possible candidates used the 2026 results to flex their political power or to gather clues on what the electorate wants.

In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro celebrated a a decisive re-election, as well as flipping four House seats and taking full control of the state legislature. Governors JB Pritzker of Illinois and Wes Moore of Maryland also easily won reelection, while Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear celebrated the election of new Democratic governors in his role as chair of the Democratic Governors Association.

Another big winner was Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, who has said he is not running but has grown his popularity with made-for-social media takedowns of Trump and corruption in politics. And California Governor Gavin Newsom gained attention for his efforts to redraw congressional districts in his state in response to the GOP’s redistricting push in Texas.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who put her substantial lefty political clout on the line to support El-Sayed, saw him easily win election to the Senate. Many progressives saw the Michigan race as a test of their reach outside of deep blue House districts. Others who traveled and campaigned for Democrats, including Emanuel, former Vice President Kamala Harris and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg took victory laps as well.

The midterms also delivered a brutal wake-up call for Republicans, with voters expressing deep frustration with Trump’s policies. They, too, will face tough questions about how to win over an electorate that’s grown weary of Trump.

Vice President JD Vance, widely seen as his party’s frontrunner if he runs, sought to distance himself from the unpopular war in Iran Wednesday as the GOP squabbled about who was to blame for the wipeout. But other Republicans and conservative commentators criticized Vance’s message for being disingenuous and opportunistic.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, another potential 2028 candidate, is also weighing whether to leave the administration as he considers his next moves, according to people familiar with the matter. The State Department denied he has discussed leaving his role.

Trump, who openly questioned whether Vance would run and has not backed a GOP successor, praised the Democratic bench on Fox News Wednesday. “They have some good people, but I don’t want to be the one to suggest them,” he said.