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民主党胜选引燃中间派与进步派围绕2028年路线的争斗Democratic wins ignite centrist-progressive fight over path to 2028

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民主党人在周二的选举中取得了压倒性胜利,获得了国会控制权,并且还获得了一件自特朗普总统重返白宫以来他们一直缺失的东西:一个有力的论据,证明他们知道如何赢得选举。

Democrats emerged from Tuesday’s elections with sweeping victories that gave them control of Congress as well as something they’ve missed since President Trump’s return to the White House: a solid argument that they know what it takes to win.

从得克萨斯州到宾夕法尼亚州,那些吸引中间派选民的候选人的胜利,为那些认为民主党需要吸引其基本盘以外的选民才能在2028年重夺白宫的人提供了新的弹药。

From Texas to Pennsylvania, victories by candidates who appealed to the political middle gave new ammunition to those who think Democrats need to appeal to those outside their base to reclaim the White House in 2028.

与此同时,进步派人士阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在密歇根州的当选则提供了一个反向的教训:选民也可能愿意支持那些以自由派意识形态参选的候选人。

At the same time, the election of progressive Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan offered a counter-lesson: that voters could also be willing to get behind candidates running with a liberal ideology.

选举结果为关于该党未来方向的辩论奠定了基础,这场辩论很可能在众议院和参议院党团会议以及最快于2027年的总统初选辩论舞台上展开。

The results have set the table for a debate over the party’s direction, on that is likely to be waged within the House and Senate caucuses and on the presidential primary debate stage as soon as 2027.

一些民主党人在周三表示,这是一场受欢迎的辩论,该党应该认识到需要中间派和自由派共同努力才能赢得全国性选举。一些内部人士建议,要限制内斗,学会合作。

Some Democrats on Wednesday said it’s a welcome debate, and that the party should realize it needs both centrists and liberals to win across the country. Limit the infighting, suggest some of these insiders, and learn to work together.

民主党策略师埃迪·维尔说:“要在很多地方获胜,你需要一个大帐篷,而大帐篷需要多根支柱来支撑。“赢得选举没有万能的办法,我们需要在不同的选区和州有不同类型的候选人来获胜。

“To win in a lot of places you need a big tent and a big tent needs multiple poles to stand,” said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale. “There is no one magic trick to win elections and we need different types of candidates in different districts and states to win.

维尔补充说:“我们需要在未来继续这样做,而不是争论是谁的群体或意识形态是获胜的关键。”然而,关于如何强硬反击特朗普的斗争很可能迅速主导对话。

“We need to continue that moving forward instead of fighting over whose group or ideology was the one thing that won it,” Vale added. But battles over how forcefully to push back on Trump are likely to quickly dominate the conversation.

特别是,民主党人在中期选举之前就已经在准备关于特朗普的调查的辩论,以及这是否可能导致弹劾。预计将成为众议院议长的哈基姆·杰弗里斯也将不得不应对这些压力。

In particular, Democrats even before the midterms were preparing for debates over investigations into Trump, and whether it might lead to impeachment. Hakeem Jeffries, who is expected to be the Speaker of the House, will also have to deal with these pressures.

“听着,我们赢了。但真正的挑战现在才开始。我们可以继续近几年的政治胡闹,也可以利用这段时间改进我们的信息传递,”一位民主党策略师坦率地说。

“Look, we won. But now the challenge really begins. We can continue the political nonsense of recent years or we can use this time to improve upon our message,” one Democratic strategist said candidly.

“在很多方面,人们周二晚上投票不是为了支持我们,而是因为他们对现状感到愤怒,”这位策略师说。“他们对建制派感到愤怒。但他们对我们仍存有巨大的、巨大的疑虑。而我们接下来做什么将至关重要。如果我们开始玩政治手段,我们在2028年将付出代价。”

“In many ways, people weren’t voting for us Tuesday night, they were voting because they’re pissed off at the status quo,” the strategist said. “They’re pissed off at the establishment. But they still have huge, huge doubts about us. And what we do next is going to matter. If we start pulling the political moves, we’re going to pay in 2028.”

民主党策略师巴希尔·斯米克尔表示赞同,称民主党需要“关注选民而非特朗普”,立法者需要“推动改善负担能力、通过社区机构凝聚社区的政策”。斯米克尔说,包括参议员乔恩·奥索夫(民主党-佐治亚州)、州长加文·纽森(民主党-加利福尼亚州)和安迪·贝希尔在内的民主党人,在未来几个月内很可能继续获得关注。

Democratic strategist Basil Smikle agreed, saying Democrats need to “focus on the voter and not Trump” and that lawmakers need to “push policies that improve affordability and stick communities together through their institutions.”Smikle said Democrats including Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), and Govs. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) and Andy Beshear are likely to continue to gain interest in the coming months.

“我认为,为2028年谁脱颖而出提供助力的新民主党联盟的基础已经奠定,”斯米克尔说。“事实上,民主党还在威斯康星、密歇根和俄亥俄等关键摇摆州大获全胜——甚至在南部的北卡罗来纳和佐治亚州也获胜——这表明民主党的版图已较2024年大幅扩展。”在民主党剖析周二的结果时,周三民主党内部关于谁最适合成为2028年提名人选以及他们的主张可能包含什么的讨论甚嚣尘上。

“I think the groundwork has been laid for a new Democratic coalition that only helps whomever emerges in 2028,” Smikle said. “The fact that Democrats also won big in important swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio — even in the south with North Carolina and Georgia — suggests that the map for Democrats has expanded greatly from 2024.”As Democrats dissected Tuesday’s results, the chatter among Democrats was rampant on Wednesday about who might be the best fit to be the nominee in 2028 and what their message might entail.

一些人继续主张只有温和派才能在全国范围内获胜。但党内也有声音称,周二的结果证明并非如此。

Some continued to make the case that a moderate could only win nationally. But there were voices in the party who said Tuesday proved otherwise.

他们指出埃尔-赛义德在密歇根州的胜利,称这为像众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(民主党-纽约州)这样的一位民主社会主义者候选人创造了巨大机会。

Pointing to El-Sayed’s win in Michigan, they said, it created a big opening for a candidate like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) who is a democratic socialist.

“除了在关键摇摆州赢得参议员和州长选举的民主党人之外,AOC 是昨晚最大的赢家,”民主党实力派人物、瑞银美洲前首席执行官罗伯特·沃尔夫说。“民粹主义在各地都赢得了选民共鸣,拉美裔选民回流民主党的趋势帮助扩大了版图,延伸至得克萨斯州甚至佛罗里达州等地。

“Aside from the Democrats who won Senate and gubernatorial races in battleground states, AOC was last night’s biggest winner,” said Robert Wolf, the Democratic powerbroker and former CEO of UBS Americas. “Populism is landing with voters everywhere, and the trends back to Democrats amongst Latino voters helped expand the map to places like Texas and even Florida.

“这让她处于竞选总统的有利位置,”沃尔夫说。他曾在纽约为贝拉克·奥巴马举办首场筹款活动之一,并于 2007 年迅速支持后者的参选。

“This puts her in a great seat to run for the presidency,” said Wolf, who held one of Barack Obama’s first fundraisers in New York and quickly got behind the former president’s candidacy in 2007.

长期担任民主党大额捐赠人的约翰·摩根补充说,如果奥卡西奥-科尔特斯独占进步派赛道,“其他人会互相吞噬……而她将成为提名人。”

John Morgan, the longtime Democratic mega donor, added that if Ocasio-Cortez had the progressive lane to herself, “the others would cannibalize each other…and she is the nominee.”

“美国民众绝望且痛苦,”摩根说,“那就是革命发生的时候。”但温和派周四继续强调,在紫色州和红色州,最大赢家是那些吸引中间派和独立选民的候选人。

“America is desperate and hurting,” Morgan said “That’s when revolutions occur.”But moderates continued to pound the drum on Thursday that the biggest winners in purple and red states were candidates who appealed to the middle and independents.

“如果有人认为我们能靠一个 DSA 或进步派候选人在 2028 年获胜,我今天就能把桥卖给他们,”第二位民主党策略师说。“逐场来看。除密歇根州外,在全州范围内获胜的民主党人都吸引了广大选民群体,毫无例外。”该策略师还表示,中期选举传递出的信息必须完全聚焦经济。

“If anyone thinks we’re going to win with a DSA or progressive candidate in 2028, I’ve got a bridge to sell them today,” a second Democratic strategist said. “Look at the races one by one. With the exception of Michigan, the Democrats who won statewide appealed to a broad swath of their electorate, full stop. The strategist also said the message coming out of the midterms has to be focused exclusively on the economy.

“而且我们必须迅速行动。我们需要利用这两年时间向选民表明,我们听到了他们的声音,并且有一份计划,”该策略师说。“如果我们在未来 18 个月内无法证明这一点,2024 年的局面将重演。”但韦尔说,中期选举最大的教训是,民主党需要“大剂量的耐心和谦逊,不要自以为‘知道’谁会是最佳候选人。

“And we’ve got to do it quickly. We need these two years to show the electorate that we heard what they had to say and we have a plan,” the strategist said. “If we don’t prove that in the next 18 months, it’ll be 2024 all over again.”But Vale said the biggest lesson of the midterms is that the Democrats need a “big dose of patience and humility about ‘knowing’ who the best candidate will be.

“候选人素质在本周期至关重要,我们需要让初选的熔炉发挥作用,看看谁能脱颖而出成为最佳人选,”他说。

“Candidate quality mattered a lot this cycle and we need to let the crucible of the primary play out to see who is going to be the best to emerge,” he said.

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