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特朗普权衡对伊朗实施新打击,面临党内分裂与时间紧迫Trump, weighing new Iran strikes, faces a divided party and a ticking clock

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国防部长皮特·海格塞斯(左二)于10月30日在椭圆形办公室,身旁两侧分别为参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军(左)和副国家安全顾问迈克尔·尼德姆。Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, second from left, is flanked by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, left, and Deputy National Security Advisor Michael Needham in the Oval Office on Oct. 30.

两名美国官员对《泰晤士报》表示,就在几天前,无论中期选举结果如何,与伊朗重燃战火似乎已不可避免。美国外交官敦促其阿拉伯盟友为一段激烈的战斗期做好准备。中东各地的非必要外交服务和情报人员被下令回国,而五角大楼的高级官员则在讨论恢复敌对行动能切实实现的战略目标。

Just days ago, a resumption of war with Iran appeared inevitable, regardless of the outcome of the midterm elections. U.S. diplomats urged their Arab counterparts to prepare for an intense period of fighting. Nonessential foreign service and intelligence personnel across the Middle East were ordered home, while senior officials at the Pentagon debated the strategic objectives renewed hostilities could realistically achieve, two U.S. officials told The Times.

官员们表示,如今,半个世纪以来最严厉的选举回击迫使总统特朗普进行反思,他在投票后的第二天坚称,他对德黑兰的战争付出的政治代价是值得的。对伊朗实施新的打击仍然是一个绝对有可能的选项。

Now, the sharpest electoral rebuke in half a century is forcing a reckoning for President Trump, who insisted the day after the vote that his war against Tehran was worth the political cost. Renewed strikes on Iran remain a distinct possibility, the officials said.

但两党突然推动罢免国防部长皮特·海格塞斯(Pete Hegseth),因其对冲突的处理方式不当,再加上其自己的副总统万斯(JD Vance)发表了反对战争的大胆挑衅声明,可能会限制特朗普在明年民主党控制国会之前恢复战斗的能力。来自肯塔基州的共和党众议员托马斯·马西(Thomas Massie)计划在下周就海格塞斯在监督战争努力中所扮演的角色提出弹劾条款,预计该措施将获得足够来自共和党的支持并通过。

But a sudden bipartisan push to oust Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over his handling of the conflict, coupled with a statement of brazen defiance from his own vice president, JD Vance, opposing the war, could constrain Trump’s ability to resume the fight before Democrats take control of Congress next year. A Republican lawmaker from Kentucky, Thomas Massie, plans to present impeachment articles against Hegseth next week over his role overseeing the war effort — a measure expected to gain enough support from Republicans to pass.

据多篇报道称,在保持对国防部长公开支持的同时,特朗普已开始就海格塞斯的表现征求顾问和亲信的意见,这是该总统在着手解职前常用的策略。海格塞斯因涉嫌就战争风险(特别是霍尔木兹海峡商业航运的安全问题)误导特朗普而面临严厉审查。而且,他在战斗最激烈时精心策划了一场极具争议的战时大清洗,清洗对象包括陆军部长和参谋长等高级将领。

While maintaining public support for the Defense secretary, Trump has begun surveying advisors and confidants over Hegseth's performance, according to multiple reports, a frequent tactic of the president before he proceeds with a firing. Hegseth faces intense scrutiny for allegedly misleading Trump about the war's risks, specifically regarding the safety of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. And he orchestrated a highly controversial wartime purge of top military brass, including the Army secretary and chief of staff, when combat was at its fiercest.

经过八个月的冲突,美国关键弹药的库存仍然是五角大楼的首要担忧,重新燃起的战斗将进一步紧张库存。国防官员告诉《泰晤士报》,该行动每个目标已经消耗了多枚弹药以确保打击成功,这引发了内部对海格塞斯领导下战争进行的质疑。

U.S. supplies of critical munitions also remain a top Pentagon concern after eight months of conflict, and renewed fighting would further strain stockpiles. Defense officials told The Times that the campaign has already consumed multiple munitions per target to ensure successful strikes, raising internal questions over the conduct of the war under Hegseth's leadership.

万斯在选举后的第二天在社交媒体上写道:“我们失败的原因是这场战争。总统本人昨晚也这么说了。如果你想争辩说这是值得的,失去未来6年的参议院多数地位是值得的,那就去争辩吧。争辩说这是一笔值得付出的代价。无论同意与否,这至少是诚实的。”

他补充道:“但每个人都知道我们为什么会失败,任何关于我们接下来何去何从的诚实对话都必须从那里开始。”

“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vance wrote on social media the day after the election. “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. “But everyone knows why we lost," he added, "and any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”

副总统詹姆斯·戴维·万斯于2026年11月2日在马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地走近“空军二号”外部的媒体成员。Vice President JD Vance approaches members of the media outside Air Force Two on Nov. 2, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews, Md.

针对副总统的言论,特朗普表示他在实质内容上同意副总统的观点,但他坚持自己发动战争的最初决定——并且如有必要将继续这场战斗。

Responding to the vice president's remarks, Trump said he agreed with him on the merits but stood by his initial decision to go to war — and would continue the fight if necessary.

特朗普说:“我认为这在很大程度上是真实的,因为它在短期内推高了一点油价。但与此同时,如果让我重来一次,我还是不得不这么做。因为从长远来看,这是唯一的答案。你不能让伊朗拥有核武器。”

"I think it's largely true," Trump said, "because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term. But at the same time, if I had it to do again, I'd have to do it again. Because long term, it's the only answer.

特朗普接着说:“伊朗的事情,我们不得不做,而且我们将继续做下去。”

You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon. "The Iran thing, we had to do," Trump continued, "and we continue to do it."

如果特朗普选择推进新的打击,他将在1月3日新国会宣誓就职前有大约两个月的时间来完成。一旦民主党人掌握了众议院和参议院的锤子,新的多数党将能够扣留国防资金,除非特朗普政府结束冲突。而一个分裂的共和党将为他们提供大量的选票支持,以要求战争努力出现新的方向。

If Trump chooses to proceed with renewed strikes, he will have roughly two months to do so before the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3. Once Democrats take the gavels of the House and Senate, the new majority will be able to withhold defense funding unless the Trump administration ends the conflict. And a split Republican Party will give them a substantial boost in votes to demand a new direction in the war effort.

密歇根州民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在底特律的一场中期选举之夜观战派对上向支持者致意。埃尔-赛义德最终赢得了他的竞选。Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed greets supporters during a midterm election night watch party in Detroit. El-Sayed ended up winning his race.

民主党政治战略家、前纽约市长迈克尔·布隆伯格(Michael Bloomberg)的顾问霍华德·沃尔夫森(Howard Wolfson)说:“当然,战争的资金将是一个巨大的问题。我想民主党人宁愿让政府因此关门,也不会把钱交给总统用来继续这场战争。”

"Certainly, the funding of the war is going to be a huge issue," said Howard Wolfson, a Democratic political strategist and advisor to former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. "I imagine the Democrats will be willing to shut the government down over it, rather than hand the president money for the continuation of the war."

最近几个月,与伊朗的冲突已陷入消耗战。双方继续零星地互袭,而美国则维持对伊朗港口的海岸封锁,德黑兰则限制了对霍尔木兹海峡的通行。目前尚未达成停火或和平协议,谈判依然陷入僵局。

In recent months, the conflict with Iran has settled into a war of attrition. The two sides continue to exchange sporadic strikes, while the United States maintains its naval blockade of Iranian ports and Tehran restricts access to the Strait of Hormuz. No ceasefire or peace agreement is in place, and negotiations remain stalled.

有望成为众议院司法委员会主席的马里兰州民主党众议员杰米·拉斯金(Jamie Raskin)周四对记者表示,他预计在新国会就座时将围绕战争资金展开激烈的辩论。

Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Democrat from Maryland poised to become chair of the House Judiciary Committee, told reporters Thursday that he expected a robust debate over war funding when the new Congress is seated.

拉斯金说:“当我们重新聚在一起时,我们将能够准确讨论这个问题。但我可以告诉你,在多数派党团内部有巨大的共识,就像在这个国家有巨大的共识一样,这场战争绝对是一场愚蠢的灾难,我们必须尽我们所能尝试扭转唐纳德·特朗普的错误。”

"When we get back together, we are going to be able to discuss precisely that question," Raskin said. "But I can tell you that there is tremendous sentiment within the majority caucus, just like there’s tremendous sentiment in the country, that this war has been an absolute folly and a disaster, and we have to try to reverse Donald Trump’s mistake the best we can."

国防部长皮特·海格塞斯于2026年9月30日在弗吉尼亚州海军陆战队匡蒂科基地发表部队状况演讲。Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gives a State of the Force address at Marine Corps Base Quantico on Sept. 30, 2026, in Virginia.

海格塞斯将即将到来的弹劾努力回击为一场“骗局”,并将自己比作特朗普,后者在第一任期内曾被众议院两次弹劾。

Hegseth has pushed back against the coming impeachment effort as a "sham," likening himself to Trump, who was impeached twice by the House in his first term.

海格塞斯在国防部台阶上的一段视频中说:“他们对政治表演的痴迷,伪装成权力,驱使他们试图摧毁对手。这全都是关于人身毁灭的政治。”他和特朗普一直试图将国防部更名为战争部。

"Their obsession with political theater, disguised as power, drives them to try to destroy their opponent. It's all about the politics of personal destruction," Hegseth said in a video on the steps of the Defense Department, which he and Trump have attempted to rebrand as the Department of War.

*“这对特朗普总统不起作用,对我也不起作用。你可以放心这一点。”

"It didn't work against President Trump, and it won't work with me. You can rest assured of that."

皮特·海格塞斯于2026年9月18日在弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿五角大楼河滨露台阅兵场举行的全国战俘/失踪军人表彰日仪式上发表讲话。Pete Hegseth speaks during a National POW/MIA Recognition Day Ceremony on the Pentagon River Terrace Parade Field on Sept. 18, 2026, in Arlington, Va.

中期选举的结果也在德黑兰受到密切关注,伊朗首席谈判代表兼议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫(Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf)周三发出警告。

The midterm elections results were also watched closely in Tehran, where Iran's chief negotiator and parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, issued a warning Wednesday.

卡利巴夫在社交媒体上写道:“美国人对战争说不,我们赞同这一信息。”他补充说,如果美国政府“背叛他们的公众意志去服务国际金主和敲诈者,它将了解到我们的‘不’伴随着一场噩梦。”

"Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message," Qalibaf wrote on social media. If the U.S. government "betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers," he added, "it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare.

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