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特朗普顾问意见相左,敦促其就伊朗战争作出决定Trump’s Clashing Advisers Press Him to Make Iran War Decision

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华盛顿——中期选举结束后,特朗普总统的顾问和外国盟友一直在争分夺秒地影响他关于结束伊朗战争还是重燃战火的决定。选民在投票箱中明确否决了这场战争,随后副总统万斯在社交媒体上质疑这场战争是否值得。美国官员透露,在发那条帖子之前,万斯曾告诉总统,他打算将败选归咎于这场战争。

WASHINGTON—With the midterms over, President Trump’s advisers and foreign allies have been racing to shape his decision on whether to end the Iran war or reignite it. Voters soundly repudiated the war at the ballot box, then Vice President JD Vance questioned whether it was worthwhile on social media. Before that post, Vance told the president that he intended to blame the defeat on the war, U.S. officials said.

美国官员表示,另一派阵营——包括国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯和美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将——在最近关于军事选项的简报中,支持恢复大规模战斗行动。美国官员和另一位知情人士透露,几位鹰派外部顾问在大选日后致电特朗普,主张他的历史遗产取决于迫使伊朗放弃核计划,这将让总统能够吹嘘这种政治牺牲值得付出的代价。

Another camp, which includes Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper, have supported a return to major combat operations during recent briefings on military options, U.S. officials said. Several hawkish outside advisers have called Trump since Election Day to make the case that his legacy depends on forcing Iran to surrender its nuclear program, which would allow the president to boast the political sacrifice was worth the cost, U.S. officials and another source familiar said.

国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥和财政部长斯科特·贝森特主张收紧制裁并继续封锁伊朗贸易。官员称,特使史蒂夫·威特科夫与万斯一样,一直在寻求特朗普继续支持通过外交努力达成协议以结束战争并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。其他外部顾问也致电特朗普,传达现在是结束战争的时候了。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have advocated for tightening sanctions and continuing the blockade on Iranian trade. Special envoy Steve Witkoff, like Vance, has sought Trump’s continued backing for diplomatic efforts for a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, officials said. And other outside advisers have also called Trump with the message that it is time to end the war.

与此同时,以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡仍在推动重新发动打击。海湾盟友则更加怀疑。卡塔尔官员周五表示,他们已发起最后关头的尝试,以阻止新的美国军事行动,并弥合交战双方的分歧,以开放霍尔木兹海峡并解除美国封锁。

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, is still pushing for renewed strikes. Gulf allies are more skeptical. Qatari officials said Friday they had launched an 11th-hour attempt to stave off a new American operation and bridge the gaps between the two warring parties to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the U.S. blockade.

“我们的调解人正在全力斡旋,以避免该地区出现新一轮升级,”卡塔尔首相谢赫·穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿勒萨尼在英国牛津的一次活动上表示。卡塔尔统治者谢赫·塔米姆·本·哈马德·阿勒萨尼周五与特朗普总统通了电话,海湾官员称,有迹象表明双方都在寻找缓和局势的出口。海湾官员表示,伊朗官员将在未来几天返回卡塔尔多哈,最早可能于周六抵达,以讨论拟议中的协议。

“Our mediators are working as we speak to avoid another wave of escalation in the region,” said Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani at an event in Oxford, England. Qatari ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani spoke with President Trump on Friday, and Gulf officials said there were signs that both sides were looking for an off-ramp. Iranian officials are set to return to Doha, Qatar, in the coming days, possibly as early as Saturday, to discuss the prospective deal, the officials said.

知情人士透露,海湾国家外长一直在尝试安排与特朗普通话,或在华盛顿举行高层会晤,为达成协议陈述理由。据知情人士称,正在讨论的协议将把前期磋商的时间表从60天——即6月谅解备忘录规定的期限——压缩至两天,以便近乎立即进入核谈判。其中一名知情人士表示,这可能给特朗普提供一个保全面子的方式,开始着手结束战争。

Gulf foreign ministers have been attempting to arrange either a call with Trump or a high-level meeting in Washington to make the case for a deal, people familiar with the discussions said. According to the people, the deal under discussion would shrink the timetable for preliminary talks from 60 days—the term of the June memorandum of understanding—to two days, to move almost immediately into nuclear negotiations. One of the people said that could give Trump a face-saving way to begin to wind down the war.

目前不清楚伊朗是否会接受这种协议。这些磋商显示,特朗普正处于一个决定命运的抉择前夕,这可能决定其剩余总统任期的走向,但这一次他没有团队团结一致或政治气候有利这两张安全网。“现在我们将做出决定,”特朗普周四对记者说。“如果可能,我宁愿不摧毁该国的其余部分,但也许我将不得不这么做。你们很快就会知道。”

It is unclear whether Iran would accept such a deal. The deliberations show Trump at the precipice of a fateful decision, one that could dictate the course of his remaining presidency, but this time without the safety nets of a united team or a favorable political climate.“Now we will make a decision,” Trump told reporters on Thursday. “I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I will have to. You’ll know soon enough.”

美国官员称,周五晚间,在霍尔木兹海峡的格什姆岛发生了小规模打击后,传出爆炸声。美国在最近几周进行了数次此类打击,同时告诫称这并不预示着重返全面战斗行动。“民主党在中期选举中取得成功,加剧了总统面临的困境,”布鲁金斯学会伊朗问题专家、外交政策副院长苏珊·马洛尼表示。

Explosions were reported on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday evening after what a U.S. official described as small-scale strikes. The U.S. has conducted several such strikes in recent weeks while cautioning that they didn’t signal a return to full-scale combat operations.“The Democratic success in the midterms exacerbates the predicament facing the president,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and foreign-policy vice president at the Brookings Institution.

特朗普可选的方案“很可能只会增加美国人已经付出的战略和经济代价”。官员们已告知特朗普,没有哪条路径是没有风险的。伊朗威胁称,如果遭到袭击,将把报复范围扩大到中东以外。但如果特朗普释放出想要撤离的信号,德黑兰可能在谈判中榨取更大让步,或推动封锁霍尔木兹海峡。

The options available to Trump “will likely only compound the strategic and economic price that Americans have already paid.”No course is without risk, officials have told Trump. Iran is threatening to expand its retaliation beyond the Middle East if attacked. But if Trump signals an intention to get out, Tehran could extract greater concessions in talks or push for a seizure of the Strait of Hormuz.

分歧和相互矛盾的建议,让本就艰难的决定对特朗普来说更加煎熬。官员称,自周二选举结果出炉以来,特朗普在无视选民的谴责与因选举挫败而感到受挫之间反复摇摆。特朗普尚未明确表示将采取何种行动,常常在同一口气中既表达对外交的渴望,又提及发动新袭击。

The disagreements and conflicting counsel have made a difficult decision all the more wrenching for Trump, whom officials said has toggled since Tuesday’s returns between dismissing the electoral rebuke and feeling chastened by it. Trump has yet to definitively signal what he will do, often expressing a desire for diplomacy and fresh attacks in the same breath.

本周在接受记者采访时,特朗普表示,他“别无选择”,只能承担政治代价以打击伊朗核计划。“如果让我重来一次,我还得这么做,因为从长远来看,这是唯一的答案。”

Speaking to reporters this week, Trump said he had “no choice” but to suffer the political cost to target Iran’s nuclear program. “If I had to do it again, I’d have to do it again, because, long term, it’s the only answer.”A White House official said Trump is in no hurry to make a decision as the Iranian economy sputters and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

一名白宫官员称,在伊朗经济举步维艰、石油仍通过霍尔木兹海峡流通的情况下,特朗普不急于做决定。该官员说,特朗普最终将为美国做出最佳决定。一名五角大楼官员表示,该部门的职责是为总统制定并执行军事选项。

Trump will ultimately make the best decision for the U.S., the official said. A Pentagon official said the department’s job is to develop and execute military options for the president.

美国官员称,若特朗普听从那些建议他“彻底解决问题”的顾问,五角大楼已准备好迅速执行其命令。不过,官员们表示,恢复行动的理想时间窗口将在本月晚些时候开启,届时更多装备将抵达中东。

Should Trump listen to those advising him to “finish the job,” the Pentagon stands ready to execute his orders swiftly, U.S. officials say. However, the ideal time frame to resume operations begins later this month when additional equipment arrives in the Middle East, the officials said.

“西奥多·罗斯福”号航母打击群搭载数十架战机,正从太平洋驶向该地区。但根据一名美国官员透露,它将从周五起在新加坡停靠数日,预计至少还需两周才能抵达中东。

The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, armed with dozens of jet fighters, is steaming toward the region from the Pacific. But it will spend a few days in Singapore starting on Friday for a port call and isn’t expected to arrive in the Middle East for at least another two weeks, according to a U.S. official.

一名官员表示。与此同时,官员们称,预计本月晚些时候,还有一支海军陆战队远征部队将加入该地区已有的约20艘其他舰船组成的舰队。美国已将爱国者防空系统部署到以色列,将人员从被认为易受伊朗报复威胁的基地撤离,并向该地区部署了更多舰船、弹药和部队。

Meanwhile, an additional Marine expeditionary unit is also expected to join the armada of roughly 20 other ships already operating in the region later this month, officials said. The U.S. has moved a Patriot air-defense system to Israel, relocated personnel away from bases considered vulnerable to Iranian retaliation, and deployed additional ships, munitions and troops to the region.

赫格塞思和库珀已花费数周时间为重大作战行动做准备。美国官员称,他们已向特朗普建议,恢复攻击——此次瞄准伊朗能源基础设施、核设施以及导弹和无人机武器库——是迫使伊朗交出核材料的唯一方式。但一些专家表示,尚不清楚额外打击是否会迫使伊朗达成协议,尤其是该政权已经度过了八个月的战争。民主防卫基金会智库高级研究员贝纳姆·本·塔莱布鲁表示,他认为特朗普应该“守住底线”,给制裁和封锁留出时间发挥作用。

Hegseth and Cooper have spent weeks making preparations for major combat operations. They have advised Trump that resuming attacks—this time targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile and drone arsenals—is the only way to make Iran surrender its nuclear material, U.S. officials said. But some experts say it isn’t clear that additional strikes will force Iran into a deal, especially after the regime has survived eight months of war. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, said he thinks Trump should “hold the line,” allowing time for sanctions and the blockade to work.“I think the president at this moment in time does have a winning hand, and that winning hand will put the onus of escalation or engagement on the Islamic Republic,” he said.

“我认为,总统此刻确实拥有一手好牌,而这手好牌将把升级或接触的责任推给伊斯兰共和国,”他说。“与伊朗重建能力有限相比,冲突带来的好处相形见绌,而一场在经济和政治上都将付出代价的冲突则不容小觑。”

“The benefits of a conflict relative to how little Iran has been able to rebuild pale in comparison to the costs of a conflict that would be felt economically and politically.”

关于赫格塞思将在五角大楼E区和情报室待多久,仍有持续疑问。《华尔街日报》报道称,白宫官员和共和党议员已开始指责赫格塞思,认为是他让特朗普相信伊朗战争将在几周内结束。

There are lingering questions about how long Hegseth will be in the Pentagon’s E-Ring and the Situation Room. White House officials and Republican lawmakers have begun pointing fingers at Hegseth, The Wall Street Journal reported, blaming him for convincing Trump that the Iran war would be over in a few weeks.

特朗普表示,他对赫格塞斯仍保持完全信任,而五角大楼发言人称,这位部长预计将在政府剩余任期内继续留任。如果特朗普推动达成结束战争的和平协议,他很可能会发现伊朗对手不太愿意做出他想要的让步。“他们的要价相当高,”欧亚集团咨询公司的伊朗问题专家格雷戈里·布鲁说。德黑兰旨在回归今夏的“谅解备忘录”,该备忘录允许该政权再次在公开市场出售石油,并在就其核计划进行任何讨论之前完全重新开放海峡,他说。

Trump says he maintains full faith in Hegseth, while Pentagon spokespeople say the secretary expects to be in his position through the remainder of the administration. If Trump pushes for a peace deal to end the war, he will likely find Iranian counterparts less willing to make the concessions he wants. “Their price tag is considerable,” said Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group consulting firm. Tehran aims for a return to this summer’s “memorandum of understanding,” which allowed the regime to sell oil on the open market again, and fully reopen the strait before any discussions about its nuclear program, he said.

维持现状——制裁和封锁——可能对总统具有吸引力,且是阻力最小的路径,布鲁补充道,“但这也意味着特朗普承诺在可预见的未来继续战争,油价居高不下,伊朗在海峡的袭击成为新常态。”尽管总统释放出自信的信号,但三条路径中的任何一条所呈现的困境以及持续的辩论,都没有给特朗普带来明确的上行空间。“你会选择哪个最不坏的选项?”

Maintaining the status quo—sanctions and the blockade—could prove attractive and the path of least resistance for the president, Brew added, “but it also means that Trump commits to continuing the war for the foreseeable future, with oil prices remaining high and Iranian attacks in the strait the new normal.”While the president signals confidence, the conundrums presented by any of the three pathways and the continuing debate provide Trump with no clear upside.“What do you choose that is the least bad option?” asked Seth Jones, president of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

战略与国际研究中心智库国防与安全部主任塞思·琼斯问道。请致信亚历山大·沃德,邮箱 alex.ward@wsj.com;拉拉·塞利格曼,邮箱 lara.seligman@wsj.com;伯努瓦·福孔,邮箱 benoit.faucon@wsj.com;娜塔莉·安德鲁斯,邮箱 natalie.andrews@wsj.com。

Write to Alexander Ward at alex.ward@wsj.com, Lara Seligman at lara.seligman@wsj.com, Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com and Natalie Andrews at natalie.andrews@wsj.com

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