调解人正推动美国和伊朗达成协议，以结束中东战争，与此同时，特朗普总统正考虑最早于本周实施军事打击。特朗普预测，战争将在周二的中期选举后迅速走向结束，尽管他对于这将如何发生含糊其辞。伊朗官员辩称，由华盛顿决定该地区接下来的局势。“球在美方场内，因为我们的诉求已非常清晰透明地陈述出来，伊朗的诉求是合理且合乎逻辑的，”伊朗外交部发言人埃斯梅尔·巴盖伊周一在伊朗对记者表示。
Mediators are pushing the U.S. and Iran to reach a deal to end the war in the Middle East as President Trump mulls military strikes as early as this week. Trump has predicted the war will quickly draw to a conclusion after the midterms on Tuesday, though he’s been ambiguous about how that will happen. Iranian officials argued it is up to Washington to determine what comes next in the region. “The ball is in the U.S. court, because our demands have been stated very clearly and transparently, and Iran's demands are reasonable and logical," Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei told reporters on Monday in Iran.
卡塔尔正主导推动双方重返谈判桌，并获得埃及、沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦和土耳其的支持。《华尔街日报》报道，副总统万斯上周也致信伊朗安全事务高级官员穆赫辛·礼萨伊，试图重启和谈。然而，地区专家表示，特朗普在短期内似乎倾向于军事升级。“这似乎是特朗普的走向，”核威胁倡议组织（NTI）核材料安全项目副主任埃里克·布鲁尔周一在接受《国会山报》采访时表示。
Qatar is leading the push for both sides to return to the negotiating table, with the backing of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. Vice President Vance also sent a letter to Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei last wee in an effort to revive peace talks, The Wall Street Journal reported. However, regional experts say Trump appears to be leaning toward military escalation in the short term. “That seems to be where Trump is headed,” Eric Brewer, deputy vice president for the Nuclear Materials Security Program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) said in an interview with The Hill on Monday.
“我确实认为他也意识到，归根结底，你将需要某种形式的协议来结束战争，”布鲁尔说。犹太美国国家安全研究所（JINSA）美国战略研究员乔纳森·鲁赫表示，所有迹象都指向冲突重燃，且总统似乎认为存在一种“短期战争”选项，可实现“决定性”结果。“特朗普对付伊朗人最有效的策略，是这种更长期、更耐心但也更痛苦的经济战争策略，即封锁和激进制裁，”鲁赫在采访中表示。
“I do think he also realizes that at the end of the day, you're going to need some type of an agreement to end the war,” Brewer said. Jonathan Ruhe, a fellow for American Strategy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), said all signs are pointing to the resumption of the conflict and that the president seems to think there is a “short war” option to achieve a “decisive” result. “Trump's most effective strategy against the Iranians is this longer-term and more patient but painful economic warfare strategy with the blockade and the aggressive sanctions,” Ruhe said in an interview.
过去八个月里，特朗普对伊朗的强硬与外交交替循环，未能从德黑兰榨取出任何重大让步。美国美国中央司令部（Centcom）负责监管美军在中东的部署，此前据《国会山报》报道，该司令部已拟定多项打击伊朗的方案——包括以伊朗基础设施和军事设施为目标——一旦获得白宫授权即可实施。部分参议员于9月下旬获悉美军若战争重启的打击计划。
Trump’s cycle of aggression and diplomacy toward Iran over the past eight months has not extracted any significant concessions from Tehran. The U.S. Central Command (Centcom), which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East, has drawn up multiple Iran strike options — including targeting Iranian infrastructure and military sites — that could be employed if there is authorization from the White House, The Hill previously reported. Some senators were briefed in late September on the U.S. military strike plans if the war restarted.
参议院外交关系委员会成员克里斯·墨菲参议员（民主党-康涅狄格州）严厉抨击中央司令部的计划“疯狂”，并称这将导致“毁灭性升级”。墨菲上周在中东研究所的活动中表示：“依我之见，他们制定的计划将导致这场战争延长和升级，这将对我们的安全利益造成毁灭性打击。”一位知情人士透露，中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀海军上将于9月29日向参议院拨款委员会国防小组委员会就伊朗问题进行了机密简报。
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, slammed Centcom’s plan as “insane” and said it would lead to “devastating escalation.”“The plan that they have developed will lead, in my view, to a prolongment and an escalation of this war that will be devastating for our security interests,” Murphy said last week during his appearance at the Middle East Institute. Centcom Commander Adm. Brad Cooper provided the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense with a classified briefing about Iran on Sept. 29, a source familiar with the briefing told The Hill.
伊朗已公开且私下警告，若美军重启打击，其报复将不局限于该地区，令欧洲的美方关联目标处于警戒状态。美国在中东和欧洲的盟友急于避免再次遭遇德黑兰单程攻击无人机和导弹的齐射。伊朗提出在若干条件下开放霍尔木兹海峡——全球每日约20%的石油运输经由此通过——条件包括解除令伊朗瘫痪的美国制裁和释放数十亿美元被冻结的伊朗资产。
Iran has warned publicly and privately that its retaliation in case of renewed U.S. strikes would not be constrained to the region, putting America-linked targets across Europe on notice. America’s allies in the Middle East and Europe are anxious to avoid another barrage of Tehran’s one-way attack drones and missiles. Iran offered to open the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil transit daily, on several conditions, including lifting of crippling U.S. sanctions and releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets.
德黑兰本周派代表团前往多哈，与卡塔尔调解人会晤。伊朗外交部发言人埃斯梅尔·巴盖伊在伊朗对记者表示：“如果伊朗的合理诉求得到接受并落实，有可能在两天内启动整个计划，恢复霍尔木兹海峡安全并启动谈判进程。”巴盖伊说：“这完全取决于华盛顿的意愿和决定。”
Tehran sent a delegation to Doha to meet with Qatari mediators this week. “If Iran’s legitimate demands are accepted and implemented, it would be possible to put the entire plan into operation within two days, restore security to the Strait of Hormuz and initiate the negotiation process,” Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei told reporters in Iran. “The realization of this depends entirely on Washington’s will and decision,” Baqaei said.
阿联酋总统顾问安瓦尔·加尔加什周日在巴林举行的“麦纳麦对话”外交会议上表示，阿布扎比和海湾国家希望实现外交突破。他说：“从阿联酋的角度来看，我想也可以说是海湾国家的角度，我们确实不想看到该地区再出现一轮对抗。我们希望看到这场长期危机的外交和政治解决。”
United Arab Emirates presidential adviser Anwar Gargash told a diplomatic conference in Bahrain on Sunday that Abu Dhabi and Gulf countries are hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough. “From the perspective of the UAE and I would also say Gulf countries, we don't really want to see another round of confrontation in the region. We want to see a diplomatic and political resolution of this protracted crisis,” he said at the Manama dialogue on Sunday.
特朗普周一表示，他不急于决定美国是否应恢复打击伊朗。“不管怎样，我们都会采取行动，但不着急。我们在财政上使其瘫痪。他们没钱、没汽油，他们的民众对此非常厌倦，”总统在接受Axios采访时说。
Trump said on Monday that he is no hurry to decide if the U.S. should return to striking Iran. "One way or the other, we will do something, but there is no rush. We crippled them financially. They have no money, no gasoline and their people are getting very tired of it," the president said in an interview with Axios.
伊朗的条件不太可能被特朗普政府接受，后者要求伊朗在核计划上做出让步，作为提供任何经济援助的条件。地区专家表示，美军潜在的短期打击行动不太可能改变谈判动态。他们表示，尽管美以军事打击造成了损害——可追溯至“午夜锤行动”——伊朗并未改变立场，“再次重击他们”这一次也不会达成不同的结果。
Iran’s conditions are unlikely to be accepted by the Trump administration, which has demanded concessions on Iran’s nuclear program as a condition for any economic relief. Regional experts said the U.S. military’s potential short-term strike campaign is unlikely to shift the negotiating dynamics. They said despite the U.S. and Israeli military damage, which dates back to Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran has not changed its position and “ hitting them hard again” is not going to reach a different outcome this time around.
“伊朗认为，他们从这场战争中获得了更多筹码，而非更少，因为他们有能力威胁霍尔木兹海峡，因为他们仍拥有大量导弹和无人机能力，而且从根本上说，他们仍拥有寻求制造核武器的终极选项，尽管他们的大量基础设施已遭降级，”JINSA的鲁赫说。
“Iran thinks that they've come out of this war with with more leverage, not less, because of their ability to threaten Hormuz, because they still have a lot of missile and drone capabilities, and because fundamentally they're you know they still have the ultimate option of of trying to go for a nuclear weapon, even though a lot of their infrastructure has been degraded,” said Ruhe of JINSA.
NTI的布鲁尔表示，美军可以打击“镐山”，封锁部分入口，但空袭无法摧毁该设施。“从反扩散的军事角度来看，获益不大，”布鲁尔说。
Brewer, of NTI, said the U.S. military could strike Pickaxe Mountain, shutting down some entrances, but air strikes can’t destroy the facility. “There's not a lot to be gained from a counterproliferation standpoint militarily,” Brewer said.
“试图让自己相信，你可以打击伊朗境内的一些能源和其他民用目标，随后伊朗就会向美国条件投降，放弃核计划，重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，并且基本上不再试图对该水道主张任何控制权，”他补充道。“我认为这极不可能。”但据Axios报道，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡正在敦促特朗普在中期选举后立即打击伊朗。内塔尼亚胡的主要政治对手加迪·艾森科特已警告，在未来几周内，当政党正在谈判以色列下一届政府组建之际，总理不应采取任何进攻性军事行动。
“Trying to convince yourself that you can strike some energy and other civilian targets within Iran, and then that Iran is going to capitulate to U.S. terms and abandon the nuclear program, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and basically not try to assert any control over that waterway,” he added. “I think is pretty unlikely.”But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing Trump to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections, Axios reported. Netanyahu’s main political challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, has warned against the prime minister taking any offensive military action during the next few weeks, as political parties negotiate Israel’s next government.
“在政府组建完成之前，只有当存在直接且迫在眉睫、无法等到政府宣誓就职的对以色列的威胁时，我才会支持军事行动，”艾森科特周六在社交媒体网站X上的一份声明中写道。艾森科特早些时候曾警告安全部门和公务员体系，要抵制任何施压其采取不符合国家及公民利益行动的政治压力。“坚决抵制任何施压企图。你们有我的全力支持，”他在选举之夜的讲话中说。“还有内塔尼亚胡——别胆敢利用以色列的安全为你自己的政治目的服务，”他补充道。
“Until the government is formed, I will back military moves only if there are direct and immediate threats against Israel that cannot wait until the government's swearing-in,” Eisenkot wrote in a statement on the social media site X on Saturday. Eisenkot earlier warned the security establishment and civil service to resist any political pressure to take action that is not in the interests of the country and its citizens. “Stand firm against any attempt to pressure you. You have my full backing,” he said in remarks on election night. “And Netanyahu — do not dare use Israel’s security for your own political ends,” he added.