本周的中期选举对共和党来说是一代人时间里全方位遭遇的惨败：国家在几代人的时间里都没有见过如此规模的失利，共和党在所有世代中都失去了选民的支持，而共和党可能需要几代人的时间才能恢复元气。
This week’s midterm elections were a generational loss for the Republican party in more ways than one: the country has not seen a loss of this magnitude in generations, Republicans lost voters across all generations and it may take the GOP generations to recover.
周二的结果对共和党来说很糟糕，对总统唐纳德·特朗普来说更糟糕，而对副总统万斯来说则是绝对的最糟糕，外界普遍预计他将在2028年竞选总统。他在共和党初选中要脆弱得多，无论谁赢得那场初选，其面对的全国大选对整个共和党来说都会变得更加艰难。
Tuesday’s results were bad for the GOP, worse for President Donald Trump and the absolute worst for Vice President JD Vance, who is widely expected to run for the presidency in 2028. He is far more vulnerable in the Republican primary, and whoever wins that contest faces a general election made even more difficult for the GOP at large.
随着万斯的政治生涯向前推进，他会发现脚上绑着水泥块竞选总统是非常困难的。作为一名候选人，他基本上未经受过考验，肯定不受欢迎，并且与一位历史上极不受欢迎的总统紧密相连。他将背负过去两年的政治包袱，被视为特朗普在国内外造成的破坏的共谋和帮凶。特朗普任命斯蒂芬·米勒为白宫办公厅主任，意味着在未来两年里，这个包袱只会变得更加沉重、更加可怕。
As Vance progresses, he will find that it is very hard to run for president with your feet in cement. He is largely untested as a candidate, certainly unpopular and tightly tied to a historically unpopular president. He will carry forward the baggage of the past two years, viewed as a co-conspirator and accomplice to the destruction that Trump has wrought here and abroad. And Trump’s appointment of Stephen Miller as White House chief of staff means that the baggage will only get heavier and more horrific over the next two years.
万斯没有在采访或记者会上谈论这次选举，而是决定在社交平台上发表一篇选举后的帖子。他写道：“我们输掉的真正原因对几乎所有人来说都是显而易见的。”选民希望“1）结束（伊朗）战争；2）关注生活成本/通货膨胀；3）奉行美国优先；4）改变我们与以色列的关系”。这篇帖子夹杂着轶事、部分认错以及对未能实现的承诺的肯定，对于一位现任副总统来说，这是一条非常晦涩难懂的信息。他是要与特朗普决裂吗？他是要辞职吗？他是要回归他“绝不支持特朗普”的根基吗？
Instead of addressing the elections in an interview or press conference, Vance decided to publish a post-election post on“The real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone,” he wrote. Voters wanted to “1) End the [Iran] war; 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation; 3) Put America First; 4) Change our relationship to Israel.”Part anecdotes, part mea culpa, and part affirmation of unrealized promises, it was a remarkably cryptic message from a sitting vice president. Was he breaking with Trump? Was he resigning? Was he reverting to his “Never Trump” roots?
此前从未有候选人在暗示竞选总统时，却完全承认他们的议程和政绩未能兑现对国家的承诺。承诺已经做出，却什么都没有兑现。
Never before has a candidate alluded to a presidential run with a full admission that their agenda and record have failed the nation. Promises made, nothing delivered.
显然，这位副总统正试图与他那位悲剧性犯下错误的直属上司保持距离。虽然据报道万斯在发表该帖子之前曾告知白宫，但大多数人认为特朗普给他的松手空间顶多就像对待一只哈巴狗一样。
Apparently the vice president is trying to distance himself from his own tragically flawed boss. And while Vance reportedly told the White House about the post before publishing it, most think he will have as much leash from Trump as you give a lap dog.
这位副总统没有任何政绩，也没有任何难忘的时刻。当蕾妮·古德被杀时，他冲上讲台谴责她。当维韦克·拉马斯瓦米针对阿米·阿克顿（现为俄亥俄州当选州长）散布恶毒攻击广告时，万斯跳出来替自己沾满污泥，告诉共和党人不要对这则广告发牢骚。
The vice president has had had no achievement nor any memorable moments. When Renée Good was killed, he rushed to the podium to denounce her. When Vivek Ramaswamy ran a vile attack ad against Amy Acton (now Ohio’s governor-elect) Vance jumped into cover himself in the slime, telling Republicans to quit whining about the ad.
在上个月接受记者马克·哈尔珀林采访时，万斯说：“唐纳德·特朗普以某种方式通过公职发了财，这种想法对我来说简直荒谬。”他要么是在撒谎，要么是故意视而不见。在整个采访过程中，他一直摆出尴尬而勉强的笑，就像一个刚被告知自己的好感度有多么低的人。
During an interview with reporter Mark Halperin last month, Vance said, “It’s laughable to me the idea that Donald Trump has somehow been enriched by political office.”He was either lying or willfully blind. And throughout the interview he adapted an awkward forced laugh, like someone who was just informed how low their likability numbers are.
作为总统候选人，万斯必须回答来自一个要求结果和问责的公众的问题，而这些恰恰是他极度缺乏的。但不仅仅是副总统将在2028年遇到麻烦。整个共和党和党派品牌在全国范围内遭到了拒绝。到了1月，民主党州长将控制所有摇摆州。更让人不安的是，德克萨斯州似乎也被归入了这一范畴；如果该州再次倒向民主党，通往选举人团胜利的道路将被彻底堵死。
As a presidential candidate, Vance will have to answer questions from a public that demands results and accountability, things he is sorely lacking. But it is not just the vice president who will have trouble in 2028. The entire Republican party and brand were rejected across the country. Come January, Democratic governors will control all swing states. More troubling is that that category seemingly includes Texas; should it go Democratic again, the path to a win in the Electoral College would be walled off.
尽管宪法只允许总统担任两届，但事实是这一限制经常失效。在一个党派执政两届之后，国家的规律就是轮流执政。老布什是上个世纪唯一一位成功入主白宫的现任副总统，那也是在广受欢迎的里根执政多年之后。在特朗普担任或竞选总统10年之后，很明显这个国家已经准备好迎接改变。
Though the Constitution only allows two terms of a president, the truth is that the limit is frequently irrelevant. After two terms of one party, the pattern of the country is to switch parties. George H.W. Bush is the only sitting vice president to ever make it to the Oval Office in the last century and that was after the popular Reagan years. After 10 years of Trump in or running for the presidency, it is quite clear the country is ready for change.
特朗普本人曾大声琢磨万斯是否会参选，甚至进一步说道：“也许没有人会参选。”虽然他的这番话是开玩笑的，但他的这种即兴言论中确实透露出了一些真相。关于国务卿马可·鲁比奥将辞职以宣布参选的谣言、报道和期望很快就被鲁比奥本人亲自粉碎了。他同样将不得不面对关于特朗普、战争以及日益分裂的党派和基数的丑陋问题。
Trump himself mused aloud if Vance would even run, going further, saying, “Maybe nobody’s going to run.”While his statement was made in jest, there is some revealing truth to his stream of consciousness. Rumors, reports, and hopes that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will step down to announce a run were quickly shot down by Rubio himself. He, too, would have to face ugly questions about Trump, the war and an increasingly divided party and base.
作为潜在阵营中最聪明的候选人，他可能意味着放弃这场注定失败的2028年大选，或许是在等待2032年，或者甚至意识到在特朗普内阁任职标志着他政治生涯的结束。
Being the smartest candidate in the potential field may mean he passes on what may be a doomed 2028 run, perhaps waiting for 2032 or even realizing that serving in the Trump Cabinet is the end of his time in politics.
国防部长皮特·海格塞斯遭到弹劾的可能性要远远大于总统。佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯和得克萨斯州参议员特德·克鲁斯可能在关注这场竞选，但何必自讨没趣呢？对共和党来说，2028年的景象就像是一支在超级碗中落败的球队，赛后却说他们只是很高兴能参与其中。
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has a far better chance of being impeached than the president. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz may be looking at this race but why bother? For the GOP, 2028 is shaping up like a losing Super Bowl team who after the game say they were just happy to be there.
真正的注意力现在将转向民主党，因为他们要决定自己的提名人，而此人很可能是下一任总统。共和党人只能希望民主党人互相厮杀，直到初选中的每个人都被取消资格。就连这种押注的胜率也很低。
The real attention will now turn to the Democrats as they decide their nominee, who will likely be the next president. Republicans can only hope that the Democrats battle each other until everyone in the primary is disqualified. Even that bet has long odds.
对于展望2028年总统竞选的共和党人来说，他们会发现当汽车已经冲出悬崖时，刹车根本不起作用。虽然万斯现在坐在副驾驶座上，但他随时可能被挑战者推下车。对共和党来说真正的问题是：这一切还重要吗？
For the Republicans looking at the 2028 presidential campaign, they will find that brakes don’t work when the car is already off the cliff. And while Vance is riding shotgun right now, he can be pushed out of the car at any point by a challenger. The real question for the GOP is: Will any of it matter?