美国在船只于霍尔木兹海峡遭袭后轰炸伊朗，与此同时调解人仍在努力防止两国爆发大规模战斗。
– The United States has bombed Iran after vessels were targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, as mediators continue to try to prevent large-scale fighting between the two countries.
周五晚间，两枚弹丸击中伊朗的格什姆岛，这是近几周来针对伊朗防空系统和发射装置、对该南部岛屿实施的一系列空袭中的最新一次。特朗普总统称这些为“小规模打击”，此前外界对两国战争可能升级的担忧日益加剧。
Two projectiles hit Iran’s Qeshm on Friday night, the latest in a series of air strikes on the southern island over recent weeks targeting Iranian air defences and launchers. President Donald Trump called them “minor strikes” amid increasing concerns of a potential escalation in the war between the countries.
伊朗军方在周六早些时候表示，使用一款未具名的新系统摧毁了一架美制MQ-9无人机。伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）则单独声称，其防空系统在周五拦截了一架MQ-1，据报这是战争爆发以来被击落的第16架此型号飞机。
Iran’s army said in the early hours of Saturday that it destroyed a US-made MQ-9 drone using an unnamed new system. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) separately claimed on Friday that its air defences intercepted an MQ-1, reportedly the 16th aircraft of this model to be destroyed since the start of the war.
据英国海上贸易行动办公室（UKMTO）称，截至11月6日当周，在霍尔木兹海峡及周边水域共有至少11艘船只遭袭，其中3艘沉没。西方军事情报机构记录显示，自7月初敌对行动重燃以来，共发生88起弹丸袭击事件，但该机构警告称，大多数袭击未被上报。UKMTO的周报还指出，霍尔木兹海峡共记录到170个出港和155个进港过境，较冲突前水平下降约65%。
At least 11 ships were attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz over the week ending on November 6, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which said three of them sank. The Western military intelligence agency has recorded 88 projectile strikes since hostilities resumed in early July, although it has cautioned that most attacks are going unreported UKMTO’s weekly report also identified 170 outbound and 155 inbound transits in the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 65 percent below pre-conflict levels.
大多数开启应答机的船只正走伊朗北侧航线。但许多船只仍关闭追踪系统，试图走阿曼附近的南侧航线，从该水道运出石油。伊朗武装部队还声称，除了面临导弹和无人机袭击，走“未经授权”航线的油轮和商船还面临触雷风险。
Most of the vessels that travel with their transponders switched on are using the Iranian route to the north. But many ships are still attempting the southern route near Oman with their tracking systems offline to shuttle oil out of the waterway Iranian armed forces also claim that, in addition to being hit with missiles and drones, tankers and commercial vessels using “unauthorised” routes also run the risk of being hit by naval mines.
伊朗军方海军部队周六表示，一艘关闭应答机的油轮在霍尔木兹海峡东部区域触雷起火。华盛顿称这些水雷已被清除。
The Iranian military’s naval force said on Saturday that a tanker with its transponder turned off caught fire in the eastern area of the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a mine. Washington says the mines have been cleared.
导弹射程不再设限 多年来，伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）坚持将其弹道导弹射程限制在约2000公里（1240英里）左右，以向欧洲国家保证它们不会成为攻击目标。
No range limit on missiles For years, the IRGC maintained that it was limiting the range of its ballistic missiles to about 2,000 kilometres (1,240 miles) to reassure European countries that they would not be targeted.
但随着特朗普威胁恢复对伊朗民用基础设施的大规模空袭，指挥官们表示现在没有任何限制。
But with Trump threatening to resume extensive air strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, commanders say nothing is off limits now.
伊斯兰革命卫队发言人侯赛因·莫赫比周六在一次活动中对记者说，谈及导弹射程限制时表示：“这一限制对我们已被解除。”
“This limitation has been lifted for us,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi told reporters during an event on Saturday, in reference to missile range constraints.
此前，最高领袖穆贾塔巴·哈梅内伊下令对以色列和美国的任何未来威胁进行不受限制的军事回应。莫赫比补充说，伊斯兰革命卫队航空航天部队已准备好“令人惊讶的防御成果”，如果再次爆发大规模攻击，这些成果将投入实战部署。
His comments came after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered an unrestrained military response to any future threats from Israel and the US. Iran’s aerospace division of the IRGC has prepared “surprising defence achievements” that will be deployed in action if another wave of major attacks starts, he added.
莫赫比说：“万一发生新冲突，这些[先进]成果的实战亮相不仅会让敌人沮丧和着迷，还将进一步巩固伊朗在全球舞台上的军事权威，让抵抗阵线高兴，并彻底化解侵略者的算计。”
“The operational unveiling of these [advanced] achievements in case of new conflict will not only frustrate and fascinate enemies, but will further solidify Iran’s military authority on the global stage, make the resistance front happy, and fully neutralise aggressors’ calculations,” Mohebbi said.
该发言人表示，伊斯兰革命卫队计划很快揭幕另一个地下“导弹城市”，并将一些作战系统部署到公共场所，让民众能够亲自参观检查。
The spokesman said the IRGC plans to unveil another underground “missile city” soon, and will deploy some combat systems to public spaces so the people can personally inspect them.
莫赫比补充说，如果伊斯兰共和国决定改变其核教义并制造核弹，将做好必要准备。
Mohebbi added that if the Islamic republic decides to alter its nuclear doctrine and build a bomb, the necessary preparations will be made.
在国家电视台周末播出的以战争为主题的节目《在伊朗的时间》（Be Vaght-e Iran）中，主持人和分析人士表示，伊朗武装力量已手握扳机，特别密切关注以色列的任何动向。
On state television’s war-focused Be Vaght-e Iran (At Iran’s Time) programme over the weekend, presenters and analysts said Iranian armed forces had their fingers on the trigger and were especially eyeing any movement from Israel.
“我们掌握的关于以色列战略要冲的军事情报是完整的。如果我们的水、电和天然气被切断，他们也将陷入黑暗和缺水之中，”一位分析人士说。“这不是虚张声势，而是严肃的警告。”“在战争与谈判之间钟摆式摆动”近几周，调解人为避免可能损害整个地区的袭击而开展的外交努力有所加强，尽管收效有限。
“Our military information about the strategic chokepoints of Israel is complete. If our water, electricity and natural gas is cut off, they will also be plunged into darkness and lack of water,” one analyst said. “This is not a bluff, but a serious warning.”‘Pendulum swing between war and talks’Over recent weeks, diplomatic efforts by mediators to avoid attacks that could damage the entire region have picked up, although with limited gains.
伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐周六表示，他在过去48小时内与12国外长举行了会谈，其中包括阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和巴基斯坦的首席外交官。
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that he held talks with 12 foreign ministers over the past 48 hours, including top diplomats from Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
他说，他阐述了德黑兰的“基本立场”，包括重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的七项要求，并强调有必要在“超区域大国不干涉”的情况下形成“地区安全安排”。
He said he explained the “fundamental positions” of Tehran, including the seven demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and stressed the need to form “regional security arrangements without the interference of superregional powers”.
据报道，安全事务高级官员礼萨伊在周四访问莫斯科期间，向俄罗斯总统普京强调了相同条件，此行也旨在传达哈梅内伊的口信。
Security chief Mohsen Rezaei reportedly emphasised the same conditions to Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscow on Thursday, which was also aimed at delivering a message from Khamenei.
亲以色列鹰派人物斯蒂芬·米勒已获美国总统特朗普任命为白宫幕僚长 据称与伊朗安全事务高级官员关系密切的政治分析人士穆斯塔法·纳贾菲表示，伊朗与美国之间的事态发展类似于“在战争与谈判之间不断钟摆式摆动”，且越来越倾向于冲突。
Pro-Israel hawk Stephen Miller has been appointed as chief of staff by President Donald Trump Developments between Iran and the US resemble a “constant pendulum swing between war and negotiations” that is increasingly leaning towards conflict, according to political analyst Mostafa Najafi, who is said to be close to Iran’s security chief.
“目前清楚的是，这种钟摆式的摆动将持续下去；一场冲突，其结局比想象中复杂和耗时得多，”他在X平台上写道。他补充说，特朗普和共和党在本周美国中期选举中的历史性惨败可能会进一步使局势复杂化。
“What is clear for now is that the movement of this pendulum will continue; a conflict whose ending is much more complicated and time-consuming than imagined,” he wrote on X. The historic defeat for Trump and the Republicans in US midterm elections this week may further complicate the picture, he added.
昆西负责任国家工艺研究所执行副所长特里塔·帕尔西表示，除非谈判取得突破，否则有三个因素会在短期内增加战事风险。
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said three factors increase the risk of war in the short term after the elections, unless negotiations lead to a breakthrough.
“由于对伊朗的战争在很大程度上导致了高油价，其政治代价已经付出了，”他说，“在政治日程上，不久不会再有另一个节点让特朗普为此担忧。”“一方面，达成协议的压力将会消散，”他告诉半岛电视台。
The political cost of high fuel prices, brought about largely due to the war on Iran, has already been paid, he said, and there won’t be another point on the political calendar soon for Trump to worry about this issue. “On the one hand, the pressure to get a deal will dissipate,” he told Al Jazeera.
随着民主党在1月初控制国会，主战鹰派的压力也将显著升级，因为他们在升级冲突的努力上将受到制约。极右翼、亲以色列鹰派斯蒂芬·米勒被任命为幕僚长，也暗示特朗普可能尚未准备好结束这场战争。
Pressure from pro-war hawks will also escalate significantly because they will be constrained in their efforts to step up the conflict after the Democrats take control of Congress in early January. The appointment of far-right, pro-Israel hawk Stephen Miller as chief of staff also hints that Trump might not be ready to wind down the war.
“最后，在这种羞辱之后，特朗普的心态中出现了一个新的心理因素：特朗普的复仇欲望。由于愤怒于伊朗——在特朗普看来——毁了他的总统任期，过去几周他的考量中带有报复性因素，”帕尔西说。
“Finally, there is a new psychological element to Trump’s mindset following this humiliation: Trump’s desire for vengeance. There has been a vindictive element to his calculations in the past weeks because of his anger over how Iran – in Trump’s mind – has ruined his presidency,” Parsi said.