达拉斯，11月8日——随着共和党人在周二的中期选举中遭遇全国性的惨败，支持者们纷纷涌出达拉斯的一间宴会厅，他们原本希望在那里举杯庆祝美国参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）的胜选，此人是总统唐纳德·特朗普的宠儿。
DALLAS, Nov 8 - As Republicans faced a nationwide drubbing in Tuesday’s midterm elections, supporters streamed out of a Dallas ballroom where they’d hoped to toast a win for US Senate candidate Ken Paxton, a favorite of President Donald Trump.
在酒店酒吧里，59岁的商人、三次投票支持特朗普的迈克尔·利特尔（Michael Little）盯着电视屏幕上总统的形象。“人们对特朗普很生气。特朗普让我们付出了代价，”他说道，这番话捕捉到了在共和党遭遇数十年来最惨痛的选举失利后，在总统的“让美国再次伟大”运动中激荡的一种情绪。
In the hotel bar, Michael Little, a 59-year-old businessman and three-time Trump voter, stared at the president’s image on a television screen. “People are pissed off at Trump. Trump has cost us,” he said, capturing a sentiment rippling through the president’s Make America Great Again movement after the Republican Party’s worst electoral defeat in decades.
在这个政治联盟的各个群体中，一些曾将特朗普视为MAGA（让美国再次伟大）最大资产的支持者，开始怀疑他是否已成为其最大的负债。
Across the coalition, some supporters who once viewed Trump as MAGA’s greatest asset are beginning to question whether he’s become its biggest liability.
尽管如此，这次中期选举的失利不仅仅是对特朗普的唾弃，也是对她所构建的政治和文化运动的一场全民公决。这一美国政治中的决定性力量始于特朗普2016年竞选总统期间的一个竞选口号，如今却面临着一场潜在的生死攸关的清算，此前，对飙升的燃油价格、伊朗战争以及华盛顿腐败感到幻灭的选民赋予了民主党决定性的国会多数席位。
Still, the midterm losses amounted to more than a repudiation of Trump. They were a referendum on the political and cultural movement he built. A defining force in American politics that began as a campaign slogan during Trump’s 2016 presidential run now faces a potentially existential reckoning after voters disillusioned with soaring fuel prices, the Iran war and Washington corruption delivered Democrats decisive congressional majorities.
特朗普对中期选举的首次重大回应于周五作出。他没有改变方针，反而加倍推行该运动的核心路线。他提拔了政府强硬派移民镇压行动的主要操盘手斯蒂芬·米勒担任办公厅主任，接替了苏西·怀尔斯。怀尔斯曾被视为经常陷入混乱的白宫内部的一股稳定力量。
Trump’s first major response to the midterms came on Friday. Instead of changing course, he doubled down on the movement’s core. He promoted Stephen Miller, the main architect of the administration’s hardline immigration crackdown, to chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles. Wiles was seen as a stabilizing force inside an often chaotic White House.
这一举动受到了“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动中一些最狂热的网络意见领袖的庆祝，他们将其视为向该运动根源的反移民议程的回归。“正是我们需要的那股干劲，”右翼意见领袖本尼·约翰逊在X平台上向其410万粉丝发帖称。“扎实的举措。现在是米勒时间了。”白宫没有直接回答路透社关于共和党人为何会失利、拥护特朗普2020年虚假选举说法的候选人为何落败，或者MAGA接下来将走向何方的提问。
The move was celebrated by some of MAGA’s most ardent influencers, who saw it as a return to the anti-immigration agenda at the movement’s roots. “Exactly the energy we need,” right-wing influencer Benny Johnson posted on X to his 4.1 million followers. “Solid move. It’s Miller Time.”The White House did not directly answer Reuters' questions about why Republicans lost, the defeat of candidates who embraced Trump's false 2020 election claims, or where MAGA goes from here.
相反，白宫指向了特朗普周三的言论，当时他说：“如果我在选票上，我们就会赢。”他还表示，伊朗战争让共和党人付出了代价，因为“它推高了汽油价格”，这“在很大程度上是真实的”，但他还会再这样做一次。
Instead, it pointed to Trump's remarks on Wednesday, when he said, "If I were on the ballot, we would have won." He also said it was "largely true" that the Iran war had cost Republicans because "it drove the gasoline up," but that he’d do it again.
近十年来，MAGA重塑了共和党，并彻底改变了关于贸易、移民、种族和性别等议题的国家辩论。该运动在联邦各机构中安插了忠实支持者，大举打击移民，并向企业和公共机构施压，迫使其放弃多元化、公平和包容性倡议。MAGA挺过了2021年1月6日美国国会大厦袭击事件的余波，并将特朗普重新送回了白宫。如今，民主党的压倒性胜利迫使该运动不得不面对一个意想不到的问题：MAGA结束了吗？
For nearly a decade, MAGA has reshaped the Republican Party and transformed national debates on issues such as trade, immigration, race and gender. The movement installed loyalists throughout federal agencies, cracked down on immigration and pressured corporations and public institutions to retreat from diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives. MAGA survived the fallout from the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol and propelled Trump back to the White House. Now, the Democrats’ sweeping victory has forced the movement to grapple with an unexpected question: Is MAGA over?
路透社对十多位MAGA活动人士、意见领袖、党内战略家、基督教民族主义领袖以及追踪右翼政治的研究人员进行了采访，并查阅了MAGA支持者自周二以来的发帖和播客，结果显示，这是一个正将怒火转向自身的运动。
Reuters interviews with more than a dozen MAGA activists, influencers, party strategists, Christian nationalist leaders and researchers who track right-wing politics, along with a review of MAGA supporters' posts and podcasts since Tuesday, show a movement turning its anger on itself.
自民主党人乔·拜登在2020年总统大选中击败特朗普以来，一直推动“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的“选举被窃取”的说法已大多归于沉寂。取而代之的是，支持者们正将生活成本、对伊朗战争方面的空洞承诺，以及政府决定对已故性犯罪者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的调查档案进行大面积删节或保密的决定，归咎于共和党领袖、特朗普的顾问，在某些情况下甚至包括总统本人。
The stolen-election claims that have driven MAGA since Democrat Joe Biden beat Trump in the 2020 presidential election have mostly gone quiet. Instead, supporters are blaming Republican leaders and Trump's advisers, and in some cases the president himself, for broken promises on living costs, the Iran war and the government’s decision to redact or withhold major portions of its investigative files on late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
MAGA的各派系对于接下来该走向何方也存在分歧。一些人希望回归民粹主义和民族主义的基本盘；一些人希望建立一个与单一个人绑定较弱的运动；还有直言不讳的少数派则表示，MAGA已经消亡。
MAGA’s factions also disagree about what comes next. Some want a return to populist and nationalist basics. Some want a movement less tied to one man. And a vocal minority say MAGA is already dead.
“我们必须重建，”知名的MAGA支持者、播客主持人兼特朗普白宫前顾问史蒂夫·班农对路透社表示。他敦促党内加倍推进激进的民粹主义和民族主义议程，并赞扬特朗普提升了米勒的地位。“米勒被任命为办公厅主任印证了我的观点，”他说，“没有比斯蒂芬更坚定的MAGA支持者了。”根据数据情报公司PeakMetrics为路透社进行的社交媒体流量分析，在亲特朗普的网络论坛消化选举结果之际，相当一部分自称是MAGA忠实支持者的人——超过20%——对该运动的领导层和方向产生了怀疑。
“We have to rebuild,” Steve Bannon, a prominent MAGA proponent, podcaster and former Trump White House adviser, told Reuters. He urged the party to double down on an aggressive populist and nationalist agenda and praised Trump for elevating Miller. “Miller's appointment as chief of staff underpins my point,” he said. “There is no more hardcore MAGA proponent than Stephen.”As pro-Trump internet forums digested the election results, a notable slice of self-described MAGA loyalists – more than 20% – raised doubts about the movement’s leadership and direction, according to an analysis of social media traffic done for Reuters by PeakMetrics, a data intelligence firm.
在大约一半的这类群体中，他们继续支持MAGA运动，但不再支持特朗普作为其领袖。另一半则对总统本人保持忠诚，但同时也提出了批评。
About half of that cohort remained supportive of the MAGA movement but no longer backed Trump as its leader. The other half remained loyal to, though critical of, the president himself.
该分析基于从X和Reddit平台上460万条特朗普相关评论中抽样的12,850条帖子，时间跨度从选举日晚上9点到次日晚上8点。结果发现，随着选举结果明朗，MAGA支持者普遍感到担忧。在将这场惨败归咎于特定原因的帖子中，近三分之一表示，对伊朗战争以及以色列对美国政策影响的担忧，掩盖了特朗普的信息。四分之一的帖子称，未能彻底奉行MAGA议程的共和党人破坏了这场运动。
The analysis was based on 12,850 posts sampled from a universe of 4.6 million Trump-related comments on X and Reddit from 9 p.m. on Election Day to 8 p.m. the next evening. It found broad concern among MAGA supporters as the results became clear. Of the posts that assigned blame for the rout, nearly a third said concerns about the Iran war and Israel’s influence over US policy had overshadowed Trump’s message. A quarter said Republicans not fully committed to the MAGA agenda had undermined the movement.
选举结果使得特朗普在国会参众两院均面临庞大的民主党多数派。在参议院中，民主党人可能掌控该院100个席位中的多达56席，这足以阻止特朗普未来对司法人员的提名。佛罗里达州共和党籍州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯在选举后的次日早晨表示，共和党人可能要到2032年才能夺回参议院。
The results left Trump facing large Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress. In the Senate, Democrats could control as many as 56 of the chamber’s 100 seats, more than enough to block Trump’s future judicial picks. Republicans might not be able to recapture the Senate until 2032, Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said the morning after the election.
德桑蒂斯在选举后的简报会上说：“这相当于政治上的一颗流星撞击了全美各地。”
“It’s the political equivalent of a meteor strike that went all around the United States,” DeSantis said at a post-election briefing.
民主党目前将控制特朗普在2024年赢下的7个摇摆州的州长职位，而且引人注目的是，他们在得克萨斯州赢得了所有全州范围内的竞选，该州自1976年以来就再未支持过民主党总统候选人。“MAGA已经过时”自周二以来，右翼意见领袖中关于选举欺诈的言论几乎消失了。
Democrats will now control governorships in seven battleground states Trump won in 2024 and, strikingly, they won every statewide race in Texas, which hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976. ‘MAGA IS STALE’Since Tuesday, talk of election fraud has virtually vanished among right-wing influencers.
以“DC_Draino”为网名发帖的MAGA意见领袖罗根·奥汉德利在X上向其230万粉丝写道：“自2020年以来，我一直在敲响选举被操纵和偷走的战鼓，但这并不是我们输掉中期选举的原因。我们输是因为我们未能解决选民派我们去解决的问题。”他没有回应置评请求。
“I have been banging the drum of rigged and stolen elections since 2020, but that is not why we lost the midterms,” Rogan O’Handley, a MAGA influencer who posts under the name DC_Draino, wrote on X to his 2.3 million followers. “We lost because we failed to fix the things voters sent us to do.”He didn’t respond to a request for comment.
2020年大选后，特朗普支持者伊莎贝拉·德卢卡成为2021年1月6日冲击美国国会大厦的数千人之一。她被控五项罪名，包括盗窃国会大厦内的一张桌子，并对指控做出了无罪抗辩。在特朗普重返白宫并将其特赦后，她的案件被撤销。
After the 2020 election, Trump supporter Isabella DeLuca was among thousands who stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. She was charged with five crimes, including theft of a table from inside the Capitol, and pleaded not guilty. Her case was dismissed after Trump returned to office and pardoned her.
这位26岁的保守派网红此次将矛头指向了她所谓的脱离群众的共和党领袖，指责他们未能在物价负担能力、避免外战及其他关键议题上吸引Z世代选民。
This time, the 26-year-old conservative influencer directed her anger toward what she described as out-of-touch Republican leaders who failed to appeal to Gen Z voters on affordability, avoiding foreign wars and other key issues.
“共和党人就是懒惰。他们觉得理应获得选民的选票，认为无论做什么人们都会投给他们，”德卢卡对路透社表示。“这说明你确实必须赢得选民的选票，即便在得克萨斯州这样一个超级红州，你也不是不可触动的。”她说，今年的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动显得“疲惫不堪”。
“Republicans were just lazy. They felt like that they were entitled to people's votes and that people would vote for them no matter what,” DeLuca told Reuters. “It goes to show you that you do have to earn people's votes, and that even in a super red state like Texas, you're not untouchable.”The MAGA movement this year appeared "tired," she said.
马里兰大学教授珍妮弗·戈尔贝克表示，这种情绪在右翼网络论坛中也有回响。自2016年以来，她一直在分析与MAGA相关的帖子。她说，自1月以来，特朗普最忠诚支持者的参与度稳步下降，包括在一个名为Patriots.Win的热门MAGA论坛上，帖子和评论量下降了27%。
That sentiment was echoed in online right-wing forums, said Jennifer Golbeck, a University of Maryland professor who has analyzed MAGA-related posts since 2016. She said engagement by Trump’s most loyal backers has steadily declined since January, including a 27% drop in posts and comments on Patriots. Win, a popular MAGA forum.
“即使在这群最铁杆的支持者中，热情和激情也并未真正显现，”戈尔贝克说。“他们在说‘MAGA陈旧乏味了。’它不再像曾经那样新奇和令人兴奋。”作为长期以来MAGA声音关键平台的有线电视网福克斯新闻，在中期选举前收视率大幅下滑，据收视率测量公司尼尔森的数据，其10月全天候总收视人数较去年同期下降了27%。福克斯在给路透社的声明中称，该台在选举之夜吸引的观众多于其有线新闻竞争对手。“福克斯新闻已连续25个季度成为有线新闻领域的第一网络，”发言人凯利·克罗宁表示。
”The enthusiasm and the passion even among this hardest core group of supporters hasn't really been there," Golbeck said. "They are saying that ‘MAGA is stale.’It’s not new and exciting like it once was.”Fox News, a cable network that has long been a key platform for MAGA voices, saw a sharp decline in viewership ahead of the midterms, with its total daytime audience down 27% in October from a year earlier, according to Nielsen, the audience measurement firm. In a statement to Reuters, Fox said it drew more viewers than its cable-news rivals on election night. “FOX News has been the number one network in cable news for a quarter century,” spokesperson Caley Cronin said.
一些知名右翼网红将责任归咎于总统的顾问或共和党议员——但很少指责特朗普本人——称他们无视选民的核心关切。在帖子、网络直播和接受路透社采访中，许多人归咎于对经济的不满，尽管他们对周二选举结果的其他原因看法不一。
Some prominent right-wing influencers blamed the president’s advisers or Republican lawmakers – but rarely Trump himself – for ignoring key voter concerns. In posts, online broadcasts and interviews with Reuters, many blamed dissatisfaction with the economy, though they differed on other reasons for Tuesday's results.
保守派网站《每日电讯》联合创始人本·夏皮罗（Ben Shapiro）周三在他的网络节目中表示，导致共和党人“惨败”的并不仅仅是对生活成本高昂问题应对不力。“如果你在谈论一场选举灾难——就像我们昨晚看到的这种全盘溃败——你需要更多的因素。以下是其他因素：混乱和腐败。”特朗普身边的网红劳拉·卢默（Laura Loomer）在X平台上写道：“美国已经完蛋了，美国梦已经死了。”
It wasn't just failure to address affordability that "crushed" Republicans, said Ben Shapiro, co-founder of the conservative site Daily Wire, on his online show on Wednesday. “If you’re talking about an electoral catastrophe – a wipeout like we saw last night – you need more ingredients. Here are the other ingredients: chaos and corruption.”Laura Loomer, an influencer close to Trump, wrote on X: “America is over and the American Dream is dead.”
然而她对路透社表示，这些失利并不标志着“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的终结，并辩称任何寻求2028年共和党总统提名的人都需要特朗普的坚定支持者基础。
Yet she told Reuters the losses did not signal the end of MAGA, arguing that anyone seeking the 2028 Republican presidential nomination would need Trump’s base.
“共和党属于特朗普总统，”卢默说。“MAGA运动仍然是共和党基础选民中的多数，任何想在2028年代表共和党竞选总统的人，如果对特朗普总统不屑一顾，那将是不明智的。”周四，卢默宣布暂停她的播客节目，称自己“透支太久”，需要专注于个人生活和即将到来的婚礼。她补充说，她将于1月回归。
“The Republican Party belongs to President Trump,” Loomer said. “The MAGA movement is still the majority of the GOP base, and whoever wants to run for president in 2028 on the GOP ticket, they would be unwise to be dismissive of President Trump.”On Thursday, Loomer put her podcast on hiatus, saying she had been "running on empty for too long" and needed to focus on her personal life and upcoming wedding. She’ll return in January, she added.
破裂的承诺 中期选举也对凝聚MAGA运动的信念构成了考验，其中一些信念正在瓦解。
BROKEN PROMISES The midterms also tested the beliefs that have held MAGA together, and some of them are giving way.
民主党的全面胜利对选举是否认主义运动造成了沉重打击，该运动自特朗普在2020年大选落败以来一直是MAGA政治的核心支柱。拥护特朗普关于广泛存在选民欺诈的虚假说法的候选人大败，其中包括几位曾致力于推翻2020年选举结果的人。追踪此类候选人的非营利组织“联合美国行动”（States United Action）的数据显示，明年选举是否认主义者持有的国会和全州公职将至少减少41个，在已决出的全州选举官员职位竞选中，他们输掉了70%。特朗普没有做出任何质疑选举结果的努力，反而将失败归咎于共和党人。
The Democratic sweep dealt a significant setback to the election denial movement, a central pillar of MAGA politics since Trump's 2020 defeat. Candidates who embraced his false claims of widespread voter fraud lost heavily, including several who had worked to overturn the 2020 result. Election deniers will hold at least 41 fewer congressional and statewide offices next year, and they have lost 70% of the called races for statewide posts that oversee elections, according to States United Action, a nonprofit that tracks such candidates. Trump made no effort to contest the results and instead blamed Republicans for the defeat.
由于几乎没有势均力敌的选战，也没有可信的质疑依据，许多知名的亲特朗普选举怀疑论者放弃了舞弊指控，并敦促支持者继续组织起来。少数盟友仍然在没有证据的情况下声称选举遭到操纵。MyPillow创始人、曾散布2020年选票遭机器篡改虚假言论的推销者迈克·林德尔表示，他对特朗普接受选举结果的承诺并不担心。
With few close races and no credible basis for a challenge, many prominent pro-Trump election skeptics dropped fraud allegations and urged supporters to keep organizing. A handful of allies still alleged, without evidence, that the vote was rigged. Mike Lindell, the MyPillow founder and promoter of false claims that machines flipped votes in 2020, said he was not concerned by Trump's pledge to accept the results.
“那是他的观点。我有不同的观点，”林德尔对路透社表示。“我认为这一切都被偷走了。”但这类言论基本上仍停留在边缘地带，即使在共和党人当中也是如此。由于缺乏有争议的选战，MAGA（让美国再次伟大）选举否定运动面临失去为其提供支撑资金、关注度和动力的风险。“没有人会把钱投到这上面，”追踪仇恨言论和极端主义的非营利组织“反对仇恨与极端主义全球项目”联合创始人温迪·维亚表示。
“That's his opinion. I've got a different opinion,” Lindell told Reuters. “I think it's all been stolen.”But such claims stayed largely on the fringe, even among Republicans. Without contested races, the MAGA election denial movement risks losing the money, attention and momentum that sustained it. "Nobody's going to be putting money behind it," said Wendy Via, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, a nonprofit that tracks hate speech and extremism.
退役中将迈克·弗林曾虚假宣称2020年大选被窃取，他是MAGA运动基督教民族主义派别中的知名人物，但他接受了失利。他将选举结果称作“一场大屠杀”，并批评特朗普及其政府未能兑现从降低生活成本到公布政府关于爱泼斯坦调查档案等一系列承诺。
Retired Lieutenant General Mike Flynn, who falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen and is a popular figure in the Christian nationalist wing of the MAGA movement, accepted the defeat. He called the results “a massacre” and criticized Trump and his administration for failing to deliver on pledges ranging from lowering costs to releasing the government’s investigative files on Epstein.
针对副总统万斯在社交平台X上关于对伊朗战争是“我们失败的原因”的评估，弗林写道：“大量的空头支票才是蓝色浪潮发生的原因。”弗林还批评基督教选民未能投票。“作为一名天主教徒和基督徒，我感到万分尴尬和失望，”他写道。
Responding to Vice President JD Vance’s assessment on X that the Iran war was “the reason we lost,” Flynn wrote: “the sheer number of broken promises is why the blue tsunami happened.”Flynn also criticized Christian voters for failing to show up. “As a Catholic and a Christian, I’m sorely embarrassed and disappointed,” he wrote.
其他知名的基督教民族主义者对于MAGA能否在特朗普之后存续意见不一。
Other prominent Christian nationalists were divided over whether MAGA can outlast Trump.
道格拉斯·威尔逊（Douglas Wilson）是一位基督教民族主义牧师，他曾受美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）邀请，于2月在五角大楼发表布道。他在接受路透社采访时表示，MAGA（让美国再次伟大）“不会消失”，但必须减少对个人魅力的依赖，转而更多地关注边境管控、减税以及避免对外战争。
Douglas Wilson, a Christian nationalist pastor who was invited by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to deliver a sermon at the Pentagon in February, told Reuters that MAGA “is not going anywhere” but must become less personality-driven and more focused on border control, tax cuts and avoiding foreign wars.
来自得克萨斯州的极右翼基督教民族主义牧师乔尔·韦本（Joel Webbon）则远没有那么乐观。他在X平台上发布的一段视频中表示：“特朗普完全是自己把这一切搞砸了。”他认为，总统拥抱以色列、对伊朗发动战争，并且未能兑现公布爱泼斯坦（Epstein）档案和进行大规模驱逐的承诺，从而背叛了他的基本盘。
Joel Webbon, a far-right Christian nationalist pastor from Texas, was far less sanguine. “Trump lost this all by himself,” he said in a video on X, arguing that the president abandoned his base by embracing Israel, launching the war in Iran and failing to follow through on releasing the Epstein files and mass deportations.
韦本在随附的一篇贴文中写道：“MAGA已死。永远死了。”路透社
“MAGA is dead,” Webbon wrote in an accompanying post. “Forever.”REUTERS