美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在中期选举中惨败后，一个迫在眉睫的问题是，他是否会在重返白宫以来的三大核心举措——关税、与伊朗的战争以及移民执法——上有所转向。过去一周，特朗普在公开露面时显得有些低调。
After his party's calamitous loss in the midterms, a looming question is whether U.S. President Donald Trump will shift course on any of his three biggest initiatives since returning to the White House: tariffs, the war with Iran and immigration enforcement. Trump has come across as somewhat subdued in his public appearances over the past week.
然而，无论是在言辞还是行动上，特朗普面对选举结果都表现出了挑衅姿态。此次选举中，共和党众议院候选人的得票率跌幅为20世纪70年代初“水门事件”以来任何选举中最大。
Yet in both his words and actions, Trump has shown defiance in the face of the results, which saw the biggest drop in Republican House candidates' share of the vote in any election since the Watergate scandal of the early 1970s. He named Stephen Miller — the chief architect of Trump's hard-line immigration policy and the driving force behind much of his unprecedented use of executive orders — as his new chief of staff, the most powerful adviser to the president.
他任命斯蒂芬·米勒为新任白宫幕僚长——米勒是特朗普强硬移民政策的主要设计师，也是其前所未有地大量使用行政令背后的核心推手。幕僚长是总统权力最大的顾问。
Many observers see the move to elevate Miller as a signal that Trump intends to double down on immigration enforcement rather than ease off. Then, during an unscheduled briefing Monday afternoon in the White House, Trump mostly brushed aside the issues that drove the vote swing against the Republicans, declaring the war in Iran "effectively over" and describing the U.S. as "doing better than it's ever done before."
许多观察人士认为，提拔米勒释放了一个信号：特朗普意图在移民执法上变本加厉，而非收敛。
With the firm caveat that Trump is often highly unpredictable, here's what analysts expect from the president on his three key initiatives in the wake of the midterms.
随后，在周一下午白宫一个临时安排的简报会上，特朗普基本无视了导致选民倒向共和党的那些议题，宣称与伊朗的战争“实际上已经结束”，并称美国“比以往任何时候都过得好”。在特朗普往往极难预测这一坚定前提下，以下是分析人士对总统在中期选举后，在其三大关键举措上动向的预期。
Tariffs Trump's long-standing love affair with tariffs is no secret. Even though tariff-driven price increases played a significant role in the Republicans' midterm drubbing, the president appears highly unlikely to toss out the policy entirely.
关税 特朗普对关税的长期痴迷并非秘密。尽管关税推高物价在共和党中期选举惨败中扮演了重要角色，但总统似乎极不可能完全抛弃这一政策。
But some observers do see room for Trump to back down on select tariffs, particularly ones that are politically unpopular, as tariffs on Canadian goods proved to be in border states like Michigan and Maine during the election campaign. Republicans took big hits in the U.S. midterms.
但一些观察人士确实看到，特朗普有回调个别关税的空间，特别是那些在政治上不受欢迎的关税。竞选期间，对加拿大商品加征关税在密歇根州和缅因州等边境州被证明就是这种情况。
Does that mean Trump's political era is over? Analysis Republicans ran away from Trump's Canadian tariffs, but not far enough Barbara Weisel, an international trade and investment policy adviser, says there's potential for Trump's team to fine-tune its tariffs, using them in a more strategic and targeted way.
共和党在美国中期选举中遭受重创。这是否意味着特朗普的政治时代结束了？
"The scale of the Democratic wave and public anger may prompt the administration to rethink its approach, and it can do so without completely abandoning Trump’s beloved tariffs," Weisel wrote in a post-midterm article published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Drew Fagan, professor at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, says much will depend on whether Trump and his top advisers "actually want to solve the problems that they've created."
分析 共和党人试图与特朗普的加拿大关税划清界限，但力度不够 国际贸易和投资政策顾问芭芭拉·魏塞尔表示，特朗普团队有可能对其关税进行微调，以更具战略性和针对性的方式使用关税。
"He's in denial with regard to the degree to which voters saw the economy, inflation, the weakness of their paycheques versus cost as the fundamental issue, and tariffs were part of this," Fagan told CBC News Network on Monday.
“民主党浪潮的规模和公众的愤怒可能会促使政府重新思考其做法，而且它可以在不完全放弃特朗普钟爱的关税的情况下做到这一点，”魏塞尔在卡内基国际和平基金会发表的中期选举后文章中写道。
One data point that could signal whether Trump intends to shift his trade agenda will be whether any of the top advocates for tariffs in his administration either leave or get pushed out, chiefly Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick or U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
多伦多大学蒙克全球事务与公共政策学院教授德鲁·法根表示，很多事情将取决于特朗普及其高级顾问“实际上是否想要解决他们自己制造的问题”。“他对选民将经济、通胀、薪资疲软与生活成本对比视为根本问题的程度持否认态度，而关税是其中的一部分，”法根周一在接受加拿大广播公司新闻网采访时表示。
War with Iran Senior members of the Trump administration, including to some extent the president himself, are acknowledging the war's impact on gas prices hurt Republicans in the midterms. While Trump and his team continue to defend the decision to go to war with Iran, they are signaling they want it to end.
一个可能预示特朗普是否打算调整其贸易议程的数据点，将是其政府中主要的关税倡导者是否离职或被推出，主要是商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克或美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔。
However their path to doing so remains anything but clear.
与伊朗的战争 特朗普政府高级成员，包括总统本人在一定程度上，正在承认战争对汽油价格的影响损害了共和党在中期选举中的表现。
Hegseth defends record as Pentagon chief, slams 'sham' push for his impeachment U.S. House Republican moves to force vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth "We're seeing momentum toward the end of this conflict.
尽管特朗普及其团队继续为开战伊朗的决定辩护，但他们正在发出希望结束战争的信号。然而，他们实现这一目标的路径依然远不明朗。
I think it's going to be ending fairly soon," Trump said during the Monday briefing. Trump has said for months that the war would end soon.
赫格塞斯为国防部长履历辩护，抨击推动弹劾他的“骗局” 美国众议院共和党人推动就弹劾皮特·赫格塞斯进行表决 “我们看到这场冲突正走向结束的势头。我认为它将在相当短的时间内结束，”特朗普在周一的简报会上表示。特朗普几个月来一直声称战争很快就会结束。问题是，结局究竟是通过和平协议达成，还是通过军事升级实现。
The question becomes whether the end will be found through a peace deal or military escalation. A diplomatic agreement could "reinforce perceptions that his war was an unmitigated disaster that damaged U.S. national security, the Republican Party’s electoral prospects and his personal legacy," said William F. Wechsler, a former Pentagon official responsible for special operations and combating terrorism. "The only way out, Trump may therefore conclude, is to win the war.
一项外交协议可能“会加剧人们的看法，即他的战争是一场彻头彻尾的灾难，损害了美国国家安全、共和党的选举前景以及他个人的遗产，”威廉·F·韦赫斯勒说，他是前五角大楼官员，负责特种作战和反恐工作。
That could lead to a decision to restart major combat operations, if not immediately, then in the months to come," Wechsler wrote in a piece for the Atlantic Council, a Washington, D.C.-based think-tank.
“因此，特朗普可能得出结论，唯一的出路就是赢得战争。这可能导致重启重大战斗行动的决定，如果不是立即，那么就在未来几个月内，”韦赫斯勒在为位于华盛顿特区的智库大西洋理事会撰写的一篇文章中写道。
Immigration enforcement In his interview with , recorded Friday, Trump said the administration may have been too tough in its deportation policy.
移民执法 在周五录制的一次采访中，特朗普表示，该政府在驱逐政策上可能过于严厉。
But when asked during Monday's briefing whether he has told Miller he wants changes to immigration enforcement, Trump's response suggests there won't be a substantial shift.
但在周一的简报会上，当被问及他是否告诉米勒希望改变移民执法时，特朗普的回答表明不会有实质性转变。
"We have a very strong deportation policy," Trump said.
“我们有一项非常严厉的驱逐政策，”特朗普说。“我的政策没有改变。”今年早些时候，在明尼阿波利斯联邦特工射杀两名美国公民后，该政府淡化了移民与海关执法局（ICE）策略的高调、激进性质。
"My policy hasn't changed." Earlier this year, after federal agents in Minneapolis shot and killed two American citizens, the administration toned down the high-profile, aggressive nature of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tactics. However, ICE actually stepped up its overall pace of detentions to hit record highs in the summer, according to analysis by the Deportation Data Project, based at the University of California Berkeley and UCLA.
然而，根据位于加州大学伯克利分校和加州大学洛杉矶分校的驱逐数据项目的分析，ICE实际上加快了整体拘留速度，在夏季创下历史新高。
Sarah Binder, a professor of political science at George Washington University, is skeptical that Trump will move in any significant way toward softening his immigration policy.
乔治·华盛顿大学政治学教授莎拉·宾德怀疑特朗普会在任何重大程度上软化其移民政策。
"It doesn't seem likely, not with this decision to have Stephen Miller running the show," Binder said Monday in a post-midterm briefing organized by the Brookings Institution, a think-tank in Washington.
“看起来不太可能，尤其是在让斯蒂芬·米勒主导大局的情况下，”宾德周一在布鲁金斯学会举办的中期选举后简报会上说，布鲁金斯学会是位于华盛顿的智库。
Yemisi Egbewole, who served as chief of staff in former president Joe Biden's press office, says it's hard to reconcile Trump's appointment of Miller as chief of staff with his claim to that he's willing to reach a compromise with the Democrats on immigration.
耶米西·埃格贝沃莱曾担任前总统乔·拜登新闻办公室的幕僚长，她表示，很难将特朗普任命米勒担任幕僚长，与他声称愿意就移民问题与民主党达成妥协这件事调和起来。
"That really speaks to the duality of the president.
“这真正体现了总统的双重性。他说一套，但他的行动却带来了完全不同的结果，”埃格贝洛周一在接受CBC新闻网采访时说。
He says one thing, but then his actions deliver another totally different result," Egbewole told CBC News Network on Monday.
“寻找共同点是有办法的，但总统必须推动对话走向那里，不能让斯蒂芬·米勒按照自己的议程行事，”她说。
"There are ways to find common ground, but the president has to drive the conversation there and not let Stephen Miller enact his own agenda," she said.
如果民主党兑现威胁，就总统家庭及其核心圈子的腐败指控发起国会调查，特朗普就移民问题——或任何其他重大政策——与民主党达成交易的意愿几乎肯定会减弱。
Trump's willingness to make deals with the Democrats on immigration — or any other major policies — is almost certain to dwindle if the party follows through on threats to launch Congressional investigations into allegations of corruption against the president's family and inner circle.