二月中旬，特朗普总统的一位经济顾问来到椭圆形办公室，带来了图表，显示该政府的政策可能正在让美国再次伟大。
In mid-February, one of President Trump’s economic advisers arrived at the Oval Office with charts showing how the administration’s policies might be making America great again.
家庭收入有所上升，尤其是低收入美国人的收入。退休账户一路飙升。而美国的经济增长甚至超出了预期。
Household income was up, particularly among low-income Americans. Retirement accounts were soaring. And the nation’s economic growth was even better than projected.
“这是很棒的东西，”特朗普说。他已完成重返白宫后的第一年，权力似乎无所不能。总统完全控制着国会，美国企业领袖们都在追随他的引领，而民主党则一片混乱。几天之内，特朗普做出了一个将改变一切的决定。
“This is great stuff,” said Trump. He had completed his first year back in office, and his power seemed limitless. The president had complete control of Congress, U.S. business leaders were following his lead and the Democratic Party was in disarray. Within days, Trump made a decision that would change everything.
特朗普在竞选中承诺结束海外战争，却赌上了他自己的战争，引发了一场无限期的冲突，这场冲突已导致超过20名美军人员丧生，让美国纳税人花费超过470亿美元，并推高了从货运到化肥等各种商品的成本。
After campaigning on ending foreign wars, Trump wagered on one of his own, triggering an open-ended conflict that has seen the deaths of more than 20 U.S. servicemembers, cost U.S. taxpayers more than $47 billion, and pushed up the cost of everything from freight to fertilizer.
周二，共和党遭受的损失堪称现代史上对一位总统最为决定性的否决之一。这很可能是特朗普决定对伊朗开战的直接后果，导致汽油价格上涨40%，让他许多最忠实的支持者感到幻灭，并实际上为特朗普时代画上了句号。
On Tuesday, Republicans suffered losses that amounted to one of the most decisive repudiations of a president in modern history. It was likely a direct result of Trump’s decision to go to war in Iran, sending gas prices up 40%, leaving many of his most loyal supporters disillusioned and effectively drawing a curtain on the Trump age.
一位支持者在艾希莉·欣森（Ashley Hinson）位于艾奥瓦州锡达拉皮兹的选举夜观看派对上观看选举结果。（Tim Gruber 摄，华尔街日报）保守派评论员马特·沃尔什（Matt Walsh）将这场战争描述为“过去二十年来最大的政治失误”，并称其背叛了特朗普的“美国优先”运动。“我们将不得不寻找一位新领袖，因为特朗普抛弃了它，”他在一次采访中表示。
A supporter watching returns at Ashley Hinson's election night watch party in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. (Tim Gruber for WSJ) Conservative commentator Matt Walsh described the war as “the greatest political blunder in the last two decades,” and a betrayal of Trump’s America First movement. “We’re going to have to find a new leader because Trump abandoned it,” he said in an interview.
据知情人士透露，在春天，当顾问们告诉特朗普，对伊朗的战争可能会损害共和党在中期选举中的前景时，特朗普告诉他们，还有充足的时间来解决这个问题。
In the spring, when advisers told Trump that the Iran war could hurt Republicans in the midterm elections, Trump told them there was plenty of time to figure it out, according to people familiar with the remarks.
尽管特朗普公开为这场战争辩护，但私下里他却询问身边的人自己是否应该改变路线，甚至包括那些聚在一起拍照的初级职员。一名白宫官员表示，特朗普并非优柔寡断，而是一直在征求反馈意见。
While Trump publicly defended the war, privately he asked people around him whether he should change course, including junior staffers who gathered for a photo. A White House official said Trump wasn’t indecisive but always solicited feedback.
这场战争并非导致共和党在周二惨败的唯一问题。特朗普在移民问题上也失去了优势。一场强硬的执法行动使非法越境人数降至数十年来的最低水平，但却在美国多个城市引发冲突，导致去年冬天明尼苏达州两名美国人遭枪击身亡。周二，拉美裔人口占比达到80%或以上的县以40个百分点的优势支持民主党。
The war wasn’t the only issue contributing to Tuesday’s crushing defeat for Republicans. Trump also lost his advantage on immigration. An aggressive enforcement operation brought illegal border crossings to the lowest level in decades, but it led to conflicts in U.S. cities that resulted in the shooting deaths of two Americans in Minnesota last winter. On Tuesday, counties that were 80% or more Hispanic favored Democrats by 40 percentage points.
特朗普全年在移民问题上摇摆不定，有时告诉助手他希望加大打击力度。在第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普抱怨她认识的人被驱逐出境后，总统会告诉助手，他强硬移民政策的设计者斯蒂芬·米勒做得太过分了。得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州的共和党人私下向白宫表达了不满。白宫副幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒。（艾莉森·罗伯茨/美联社）新泽西州纽瓦克的一处移民和海关执法局拘留中心。
Trump vacillated on immigration throughout the year, sometimes telling aides he wanted a bigger crackdown. After first lady Melania Trump complained about people she knew getting deported, the president would tell aides that the architect of his aggressive immigration campaign, Stephen Miller, had gone too far. Republicans in Texas and Florida privately complained to the White House. White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller. (Allison Robbert/AP) An Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention center in Newark, N.J. (Ryan Murphy/Reuters)
（瑞安·墨菲/路透社）一名与特朗普交谈过的政府高级官员表示，特朗普有时告诉助手他根本不在乎中期选举。这名官员说，总统厌倦了操心国内政治问题，他认为这些问题不如外交政策和他自己的政治遗产重要。
At times, Trump told aides he didn’t care about the midterms at all, said a senior administration official who talked to him. The president was tired of worrying about domestic political issues that he didn’t think mattered as much as foreign policy and his legacy, the official said.
这名政府高级官员说，当特朗普的助手在春季和夏季告诉他民调显示选民对他处理生活负担能力问题的方式感到担忧时，他说民调是假的。这名官员说，特朗普在一次会议上表示，他在2016年没有委托进行任何民调，但照样赢了。
When Trump’s aides told him in the spring and summer that polls showed voters concerned about his handling of affordability, he said the polling was fake, the senior administration official said. He said in one meeting that he didn’t commission any polls in 2016 but still won, the official said.
特朗普还将一些本可在参议院选举中获胜机会更大的共和党候选人排挤出局，包括佐治亚州、南卡罗来纳州、北卡罗来纳州和德克萨斯州。他改而拥立他认为会对他忠诚的候选人。民主党在这四个州全部获胜。特朗普的顾问们淡化了他在这场失利中的作用，称他参加了30场竞选集会，而他未选中的其他候选人也会输掉。
Trump also pushed out of Senate races Republican candidates who would have faced better odds, including in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Texas. He instead anointed candidates he believed would be loyal to him. Democrats won in all four of these states. Trump advisers played down his role in the loss, saying he attended 30 rallies and that other candidates he didn’t pick would have lost too.
“这本不该是这样，”南卡罗来纳州众议员拉尔夫·诺曼说，他是在特朗普突然介入后，在南卡罗来纳州共和党初选中败给参议员达琳·格雷厄姆的共和党人。“骄傲使人跌倒。这将是对共和党的一次警钟。”
“It really didn’t have to be this way,” said Rep. Ralph Norman, the Republican who lost the South Carolina Republican nomination to Sen. Darline Graham after Trump swooped in. “Pride goeth before the fall. It’s going to be a wake-up call for the Republican Party.”
到8月，民调显示共和党在经济问题上已失去对选民的优势。8月，特朗普的助手们深感担忧，因为内部民调显示选民绝大多数将通货膨胀归咎于特朗普而非民主党。他们还看到，当汽油价格上涨时，他的民调支持率下降。
By August, polls showed Republicans had lost their edge with voters on the economy. Trump aides grew deeply concerned in August when internal polling showed voters overwhelmingly blamed Trump for inflation over Democrats. They also saw his poll numbers fall when gas prices rose.
包括纽特·金里奇和肖恩·汉尼蒂在内的顾问们温和地敦促特朗普更多关注可负担性问题。金里奇周三表示，该党已在可负担性之争中落败。
Advisers including Newt Gingrich and Sean Hannity gently urged Trump to give more attention to affordability. Gingrich said Wednesday the party had lost the affordability fight.
尽管如此，总统仍让自己置身于乐观的观点之中。在德克萨斯州的一场夏季筹款活动中，他的私人助理纳塔莉·哈普告诉捐款人，一项民调显示他是有史以来最受欢迎的共和党总统，一位与会者说。
Still, the president continued to surround himself with upbeat views. At a summer fundraiser in Texas, his personal aide Natalie Harp told donors about a poll that showed he was the most popular Republican president ever, an attendee said.
特朗普总统与白宫助理纳塔莉·哈普在总统座驾中。（克里夫·欧文/美联社）9月，美国汽油价格在一周内飙升16美分。不久之后，柴油价格创下历史新高。当民主党众议院竞选策略师开会决定在最后几周如何按选区分配资源时，他们将目光投向了原本视为稳固的共和党席位。这包括佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州的空缺席位，特朗普在2024年于这两个州的胜选票数超过10个百分点，知会议情况的人士透露。
President Trump with White House aide Natalie Harp in the presidential limousine. (Cliff Owen/AP) In September, gasoline prices in the U.S. shot up 16 cents in a single week. Not long after, diesel prices hit a record high. When Democratic House campaign strategists met to decide where, district by district, to invest resources in the final weeks, they zeroed in on what they had viewed as safe Republican seats. That included open seats in Florida and Texas that Trump had won by more than 10 percentage points in 2024, according to people familiar with the meeting.
与此同时，全国共和党策略人士对内部民调感到不安，民调显示，在深红州和国会选区，共和党席位面临威胁。在一次共和党电话会议上，一位民调人士说：“人们将把九月的最后一周标记为‘底掉’的一周。”
Meanwhile, national Republican strategists were unnerved by internal polling that showed GOP seats under threat in deep-red states and congressional districts. On one Republican call, a pollster said, “People will mark the last week of September as the week the bottom fell out.”
顾问们表示，特朗普大多拒绝了建议他调和立场的意见，有时会提醒他的团队，他曾是总统。
Trump largely rebuffed suggestions that he moderate his positions, advisers said, sometimes reminding his team that he was the president.
知情人士称，参议院多数党领袖约翰·桑恩多次试图在特朗普致电讨论废除阻挠议事或“拯救美国法案”（他所希望的选民法案）时提起可负担性问题。
Senate Majority Leader John Thune repeatedly tried to bring up the affordability issue when Trump would call to talk about killing the filibuster or the Save America Act, the voter legislation he wanted, people familiar with the sometimes tense calls said.
参议院多数党领袖约翰·桑恩。（Graeme Sloan/彭博新闻）当特朗普想要否决一项受欢迎的两党住房法案时，白宫高级官员詹姆斯·布雷德给其他工作人员发了一张便条，请求他们帮助说服总统签署该法案。特朗普打消了支持该法案的立法者和顾问的念头，取消了一场新闻发布会，取消得太晚，以至于一些立法者还是赶到了现场。他对一位顾问说，没人在乎这个。助手们最终说服他，让住房法案在没有他签名的情况下成为法律。
Senate Majority Leader John Thune. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg News) When Trump wanted to veto a popular bipartisan housing bill, senior White House official James Braid sent a note to other staffers asking them to help persuade the president to sign it. Trump shut down the lawmakers and advisers favoring the bill, scuttling a news conference so late that some lawmakers arrived anyway. Nobody cares about this, he told one adviser. Aides eventually persuaded him to let the housing bill become law without his signature.
在竞选的最后几周，特朗普淡化了高汽油价格，并且经常偏离稿，将注意力引向他对所支持男性候选人身材的评论。他告诉顾问，谈论俄亥俄州参议员约翰·赫斯特的臀部，让他对选民来说更“有趣”了。赫斯特周二落选。特朗普顾问表示，总统在30场集会上为一些候选人造势，比这些候选人为自己造势还要多。
In the final weeks of the campaign, Trump played down high gasoline prices and often veered off script, drawing attention to his remarks about the physiques of male candidates he was supporting. He told advisers that talking about Ohio Sen. Jon Husted’s backside was making him more “interesting” to voters. Husted was defeated on Tuesday. Trump advisers said the president did more in 30 rallies to promote some of the candidates than the candidates did to promote themselves.
涉及政府和特朗普家族腐败的指控成为选民最关心的问题之一。然而，特朗普继续专注于他的心头好项目，包括一个新的白宫舞厅和一座拟建的250英尺凯旋门。在飞机上，他与助手们密谈肯尼迪中心该如何处理。他打断椭圆形办公室的会议，展示他最新的计划，有一次还带一位客人到外面，看他如何安装写着“玫瑰园”的金色字母。
Allegations of corruption involving the administration and the Trump family became a top concern for voters. Yet Trump continued to focus on pet projects, including a new White House ballroom and a proposed 250-foot triumphal arch. On flights, he huddled with aides about what should be done about the Kennedy Center. He interrupted Oval Office meetings to show off his latest plans, at one point leading a guest outside to see how he attached gold letters reading “The Rose Garden.”
助手们说，劝他不要再谈论舞厅是浪费时间，因为他每周就此话题召开多次长时间会议，并且乐于带人参观。
Aides said it was a waste of time to tell him to stop talking about the ballroom because he held several long meetings a week on the topic and enjoyed giving tours.
周一，即中期选举前一天，特朗普在林肯纪念堂反射池边发表了近一小时的演讲，助手们将其宣传为向选民发表的最后陈词。特朗普大多谈论他对首都的翻新，包括清理涂鸦、重新铺设国家广场草坪和更换生锈的水管。他说，该项目最大的反对者之一是藻类。
On Monday, the day before the midterm election, Trump gave a nearly hourlong speech at the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool that aides had billed as a final argument to voters. Trump mostly talked about his renovations of the capital, including cleaning up graffiti, resodding the mall and replacing rusty pipes. One of the project’s biggest foes, he said, had been algae.
“我们为华盛顿计划了很多伟大的事情，”他说，但拒绝详细阐述。他说，没有足够的时间讨论他对国家的计划。
“We have a lot of great things planned for Washington,” he said, but declined to elaborate. There wasn’t enough time, he said, to discuss his plans for the nation.
周一，特朗普总统在林肯纪念堂反射池边发表中期选举前的最后一次演讲。
President Trump at the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool Monday for his last speech before the midterm election.
反射池活动结束后，与特朗普交谈过的一位人士说，他兴高采烈。他说，选举将会进行得很好，因为共和党人士士气高涨。他说，如果不是这样，那也不该由他承担责任。他已经尽了他所能。“最大的问题是，我不在选票上，”他对《华尔街日报》说。然而，特朗普一再表示，选民应该想象他就在选票上。两连击特朗普政府出现的首批重大裂痕，发生在今年明尼阿波利斯一条结冰的街道上，远在伊朗战争之前。
After the reflecting pool event, Trump was ebullient, a person who spoke to him said. The election was going to go well, he said, because there was great spirit among Republicans. If not, he said, he didn’t deserve the blame. He had done all he could do. “The biggest issue is that I wasn’t on the ballot,” he told The Wall Street Journal. Yet, Trump had said repeatedly that voters should imagine that he was on the ballot. Two strikes The first big cracks in Trump’s administration appeared this year on an icy Minneapolis street, well before the war in Iran.
1月，在亚历克斯·普雷蒂被边境巡逻队警官从背后开枪击中后，包括米勒在内的特朗普顾问和国土安全部部长克里斯蒂·诺姆为警官辩护，并将这名37岁的重症监护护士称为“国内恐怖分子”。
In January, after Alex Pretti was shot in the back by a Border Patrol officer, Trump advisers including Miller and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem defended the officers and labeled the 37-year-old intensive-care nurse a “domestic terrorist.”
几位顾问表示，特朗普告诉助手，他担心那些显示杀戮的视频。他指示新闻秘书卡罗琳·利维特让自己与团队发表的言论保持距离。他告诉他的移民事务专员汤姆·霍曼前往明尼阿波利斯，并“解决问题”。
Trump, several advisers said, told aides he worried about videos that showed the killing. He instructed press secretary Karoline Leavitt to distance him from comments made by his team. He told Tom Homan, his immigration czar, to go to Minneapolis and “fix it.”
特朗普上任时，将移民执法视为选民授权。但随着政府在城市地区的激进行动，包括针对家得宝商店、鸡肉加工厂、建筑工地及其他场所的突袭，非暴力违法者被大规模逮捕，舆论开始转变。
When Trump took office, he saw immigration enforcement as a voter mandate. But views soured over the government’s aggressive urban operations, including raids targeting Home Depot stores, chicken processing factories, construction sites and other venues where nonviolent offenders were rounded up.
国土安全部部长克里斯蒂·诺姆在白宫向记者发表讲话。（塞缪尔·科鲁姆/新闻汇供图）联邦特工在明尼阿波利斯向人群发射催泪瓦斯。（本·霍夫兰/明尼苏达公共广播电台/美联社）普雷蒂被枪击后几周，特朗普更换了诺姆，并告诉她的继任者让移民执法远离新闻头条。随着该机构采取低调做法，强硬保守派变得不安，诺姆任期内还出现了腐败指控。曾帮助特朗普当选的移民打击行动已成为他的累赘。
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem speaking to reporters at the White House in January. (Samuel Corum/Press Pool) Federal agents setting off tear gas at a crowd in Minneapolis. (Ben Hovland/Minnesota Public Radio/AP) Within weeks of the Pretti shooting, Trump had replaced Noem and told her replacement to keep immigration enforcement out of the headlines. As the agency took a lower-key approach, hard-line conservatives grew agitated, and corruption allegations emerged under Noem’s tenure. The immigration crackdown that had helped get Trump elected had become an albatross.
特朗普很快向伊朗发射导弹。他驳斥了其他政府官员的担忧，并依赖国防部长皮特·赫格塞思的评估。他反复改变自己的信息和策略。利维特请求他停止接听记者电话，因为他关于战争的言论被解读为自相矛盾。一名政府官员表示，特朗普并未改变自己的信息和策略，而是对事件做出反应。
Trump soon launched missiles into Iran. He dismissed concerns from other administration officials and relied on assessments from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. He repeatedly changed his message and tactics. Leavitt asked him to stop taking calls from reporters because his comments on the war were being interpreted as contradictory. An administration official said Trump didn’t change his message and tactics but reacted to events.
总统时而威胁要摧毁伊朗文明，时而宣布尚未准备好的交易。他还不时向新闻媒体发表高级助手毫不知情的声明，让他们措手不及。当他宣布与伊朗达成一项后来破裂的协议时，他的内部民调数据仅短暂好转。
The president veered from threatening the destruction of Iranian civilization to announcing deals that weren’t yet ready. He surprised senior aides at other times with proclamations made to the news media that they didn’t know were coming. His internal polling data improved only briefly when he announced a deal with Iran that later imploded.
顾问们表示，特朗普始终比政府内一些其他官员更有兴趣打击伊朗。他对顾问们说，这将是一场短暂的交锋。1月抓获委内瑞拉强人尼古拉斯·马杜罗的快速突袭让他更加大胆，那项任务要简单得多。
Trump was always more interested in striking Iran than some of his other administration officials, advisers said. It was going to be a short engagement, he told advisers. He was emboldened by the quick January raid that captured Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, a far simpler task.
3月，德黑兰一处石油储存设施被击中，火焰和浓烟升腾。（Alireza Sotakbar/ISNA/AP）3月，当他的内阁高级官员与石油高管会面时，他们说伊朗战争将在4月结束，与会者表示。到5月，特朗普在白宫会议上对其他人说，他想赢得战争并转移注意力。政治顾问们希望战争能在夏天结束，以便有足够时间重新吸引选民注意。
Flames and smoke rising from an oil-storage facility struck in Tehran in March. (Alireza Sotakbar/ISNA/AP) When his top cabinet officials met with oil executives in March, they said the Iran war would be over by April, people at the meeting said. By May, Trump told others in White House meetings that he wanted to win and move on. Political advisers hoped that it would be over by the summer, giving enough time to refocus voter attention.
幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯等人敦促特朗普向美国公众兜售这场战争。特朗普最终在白宫发表了一次20分钟的讲话，但并未改变公众舆论。之后，总统质疑这次讲话是不是个好主意。
Chief of staff Susie Wiles and others urged Trump to sell the American public on the war. Trump eventually gave a 20-minute address from the White House, which didn’t sway public opinion. Afterward, the president questioned whether the speech had been a good idea.
他在不同时间，对不同的顾问说，要让他们参与与伊朗的谈判。在8月的一场筹款活动上，他问一位石油高管，轰炸哈尔克岛有多难。
He told different advisers, at different times, to get involved in the negotiations with Iran. At the August fundraiser, he asked an oil executive how difficult it would be to bomb Kharg Island.
知情人士表示，国会议员们对这场战争以及来自五角大楼的信息感到沮丧。许多人向白宫抱怨，询问在中期选举前摆脱冲突的计划是什么。他们说，这正在严重削减当地的选民支持。
Members of Congress grew frustrated with the war and the information from the Pentagon, people familiar with the matter said. Many complained to the White House, asking what the plan was to escape the conflict before the midterms. It was crushing voter support back home, they said.
当特朗普得知军方在弹药方面遇到困难时，他感到震惊，并且急于降低燃油价格，以至于他与俄罗斯达成了一项协议。白宫幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯每一次与伊朗达成协议的尝试都告吹，总统感到沮丧。他对顾问抱怨道，怎么跟这些人谈判？
Trump was shocked when he learned the military was struggling with ammunition, and he was so desperate to get fuel prices down that he made a deal with Russia. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles Every attempt at a deal with Iran blew up, and the president was frustrated. How do you even negotiate with these people? he complained to advisers.
特朗普的MAGA基本盘也日益不安。一些人仍对其政府处理杰弗里·爱泼斯坦档案的方式感到愤慨。另一些人抱怨说，他没有做足够的事情来推进“让美国再次健康”议程。特朗普继续赞扬数据中心，而他自己的民调显示，数据中心极不受欢迎，共和党人敦促他收敛言辞。
Trump’s MAGA base also grew increasingly restless. Some still seethed over his administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Others complained that he hadn’t done enough to pass the Make America Healthy Again agenda. Trump continued to praise data centers, which his own polls showed were overwhelmingly unpopular, and Republicans encouraged him to temper his rhetoric.
重新划定国会选区以有利于共和党的努力参差不齐，一些州在地方官员表示感到被霸凌后，违抗了白宫。新兵参议员克斯滕·吉利布兰德与纽约州同乡、参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默一起领导了民主党夺回参议院的竞选。她告诉团队成员，特朗普面临的政治逆风让她想起了2006年，当时选民因高油价和不受欢迎的伊拉克战争而谴责时任总统乔治·W·布什及其政党，使民主党在两院都取得了多数席位。
Efforts to redraw congressional maps to benefit Republicans had mixed results, and some states defied the White House after local officials said they felt bullied. New recruits Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who led the Democrats’ bid to recapture the Senate alongside fellow New Yorker, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, told members of her team that the political headwinds facing Trump reminded her of 2006, when voters rebuked then-President George W. Bush and his party over high fuel prices and the unpopular Iraq war, sweeping Democrats into majorities in both chambers.
吉利布兰德团队成员对她的乐观翻白眼，知情人士回忆道。事实是，参议院民主党面临残酷的选举地图，需要在特朗普以微弱优势获胜的州捍卫席位，同时还要在他以两位数优势获胜的州翻转席位。
Members of Gillibrand’s team rolled their eyes at her optimism, people familiar with the exchanges recalled. The truth was, Senate Democrats faced a brutal election map, defending seats in states Trump won narrowly, as well as needing to flip seats in states he won by double digits.
关于医疗保健和移民的两次政府停摆帮助团结了民主党议员和党的基本盘。舒默最终招募到了受欢迎的候选人，包括俄亥俄州前参议员谢罗德·布朗。
Two government shutdowns over healthcare and immigration helped rally Democratic lawmakers and the party base. Schumer eventually landed popular recruits, including former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
在北卡罗来纳州，广受欢迎的两届民主党州长罗伊·库珀去年刚卸任，舒默就打电话请他考虑参选参议员。库珀告诉他，自己正在启动一个奖学金项目，等几个月后结束再谈。舒默在日历里设了个提醒。还没等他打电话，就收到了回音：周二获胜的库珀，已经准备好了。
In North Carolina, popular two-term Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper had just left office last year when Schumer called and asked him to consider a Senate run. Cooper told him he was starting a fellowship and they should talk when it was over months later. Schumer put a reminder in his calendar. Before he could call, he heard back: Cooper, who won on Tuesday, was ready.
与此同时，共和党人举步维艰。去年4月，图恩等人前往佐治亚州，试图说服共和党州长布莱恩·坎普参选。他们在州长官邸与坎普会面了三个小时，坎普对中期选举的前景持谨慎态度。他说，他想按自己的方式竞选，而届时不得不与特朗普意见相左——而特朗普当时要求效忠。更糟糕的是，特朗普不久前在佐治亚州的一次集会上攻击坎普，称其“不忠”且“是个坏人”。坎普拒绝了他们。参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默今年与同僚立法者开会。
Republicans, meanwhile, struggled. In April of last year, Thune and others traveled to Georgia to try to persuade Republican Gov. Brian Kemp to run. They spent three hours in the governor’s mansion with Kemp, who was wary about the outlook for the midterms. He said he wanted to run his own race and would have to disagree with Trump at a time when Trump demanded fealty. It didn’t help that Trump had recently attacked Kemp at a Georgia rally for being “disloyal” and “a bad guy.”Kemp turned them down. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in a meeting with fellow lawmakers this year.
特朗普还做出了一系列共和党人后来后悔的提名，包括在德克萨斯州，肯·帕克斯顿和现任参议员约翰·科宁都未在该州共和党初选中获得50%的选票，导致进入决选。
Trump made a series of other picks that Republicans came to regret, including in Texas, where neither Ken Paxton nor incumbent Sen. John Cornyn reached 50% in the state’s Republican primary, prompting a runoff.
初选次日，特朗普致电图恩，询问是否应该支持其中一人。总统将众议员韦斯利·亨特接入电话，亨特是排名第三、迫使进入决选的候选人。亨特告诉他们，科宁赢不了。亨特说得有道理，特朗普告诉图恩。
The day after that primary, Trump called Thune to ask if he should endorse either man. The president patched in Rep. Wesley Hunt, the candidate who had come in third and forced the runoff. Hunt told them that Cornyn couldn’t win. Hunt makes a good case, Trump told Thune.
让帕克斯顿过关，需要花费2亿到3亿美元，图恩反驳道，这笔钱会耗尽竞争激烈州份的资金。基本盘支持帕克斯顿，特朗普说。
It’s going to cost $200 million to $300 million to get Paxton over the finish line, Thune countered, a sum that would drain money from competitive states. The base is behind Paxton, Trump said.
图恩告诉同事，他至少六次挂断与特朗普的电话时，都以为自己已经说服总统不要插手德克萨斯州的竞选。一份支持科宁的声明草案已经拟好。当特朗普向盟友们征询意见，包括在椭圆形办公室的一群人时，有人告诉他，如果他支持科宁，这位参议员就会获胜。
Thune told associates he had gotten off the phone with Trump at least six times believing he had persuaded the president to stay out of the Texas race. A draft endorsement was crafted for Cornyn. As Trump polled allies, including a group in the Oval Office, some told him that if he endorsed Cornyn, the senator would win.
到五月，特朗普因参议院共和党人不推进他的选民立法而愤怒，转而支持更符合MAGA立场的帕克斯顿，帕克斯顿周二落选。顾问称，特朗普后来后悔支持帕克斯顿，抱怨他的候选人身份，并询问是否坚持支持科宁会更容易。
By May, angry that Senate Republicans weren’t passing his voter legislation, Trump instead endorsed the more MAGA-aligned Paxton, who lost on Tuesday. He came to regret backing Paxton, advisers said, complaining about his candidacy and asking if it would have been easier to stick with Cornyn.
民主党正面临党内极左势力崛起，包括那些主张废除警察、削减国防部经费的人，这些观点损害了该党。
Democrats were contending with the rise of the far-left in the party, including those who called for abolishing police and defunding the Defense Department, views that hurt the party.
参议员约翰·桑恩与特朗普总统六月对记者讲话。（Allison Robbert 摄，华尔街日报）共和党计划将35岁的社会主义者佐赫兰·马姆达尼——他去年成为纽约市市长——塑造为该党的代表人物，并将该党描绘为与大多数美国人脱节。
Sen. John Thune and President Trump speaking to reporters in June. (Allison Robbert for WSJ) Republicans planned to make Zohran Mamdani, the 35-year-old socialist who became New York City’s mayor last year, the face of a party they would paint as out of touch with most Americans.
九月，特朗普在联合国大会前访问纽约时，马姆达尼突然宣布：他已邀请特朗普会面。
In September, when Trump was in New York ahead of the United Nations General Assembly, Mamdani had a surprise announcement: He had invited Trump to meet.
据知情人士透露，特朗普助手也不喜欢这个想法。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊向白宫官员表示，众议院共和党人对此极为愤怒。特朗普与马姆达尼友好相处的形象将损害纽约州以反马姆达尼信息竞选的共和党众议院候选人。
Republicans in the House were apoplectic, House Speaker Mike Johnson told White House officials. An image of Trump being friendly with Mamdani would hurt Republican House candidates in New York who were running on an anti-Mamdani message. Trump aides didn’t like the idea either, according to people familiar with the matter.
特朗普和马姆达尼在格雷西宅邸——市长官邸——会面，正如特朗普所愿。约翰逊后来对其他人说，这是一个在艰难选举年犯下的不必要失误。
Trump and Mamdani met at Gracie Mansion, the mayor’s residence, just as the president wanted. Johnson later told others it was an unforced error in a difficult election year.
特朗普后来为世界上最知名的共产党人、中国领导人习近平举办了一场奢华的国宴，违背了一些助手的建议。他们私下开玩笑说，也许可以利用大宴会厅的大规模施工来取消习近平的访问。
Trump later hosted a lavish state dinner for the world’s most recognizable communist, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, against the advice of some aides. They joked among themselves that maybe they could use the extensive ballroom construction to cancel Xi’s visit.
九月初，特朗普在达拉斯举办的中期选举党代会出现了牛仔帽和空座位，但并未为共和党带来助力。特朗普更多谈论他在华盛顿的大改造，一个全国性的共和党团体了解到，这一议题正在对该党产生负面影响。
In early September, Trump’s Dallas midterm convention featured cowboy hats and empty seats but provided no boost for Republicans. The president spoke more about his Washington makeover, an issue one national Republican group learned was working against the party.
春季和夏季的焦点小组讨论中，那些不常关注华盛顿新闻的选民会提起特朗普的个人项目，一位了解该小组工作的策略人士表示。该小组反复听到的评论包括：特朗普总统在格雷西宅与纽约市市长佐兰·马曼迪会面后，于9月离开联合新闻发布会。他并不真正关心我正在经历的事情。他似乎想把自己的名字印在每件事上。
In focus groups during the spring and summer, voters who didn’t typically tune in to Washington news would bring up Trump’s pet projects, said a strategist familiar with the group’s work. Among the comments the group repeatedly heard: President Trump departing a joint news conference with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani following a meeting at Gracie Mansion in September. He doesn’t really care about what I’m going through. It seems like he wants to put his name on everything.
到10月，一些共和党人认为，包括特朗普的MAGA Inc.在内的共和党超级政治行动委员会的支出高潮，将稳定选情。但这笔资金无法与汽油价格和其他钱包问题相抗衡。
By October, some Republicans felt that a spending blitz by Republican super PACs, including Trump’s MAGA Inc., would stabilize the map. The money couldn’t compete with gas prices and other pocketbook troubles.
“这关乎经济，”国会领导基金主席克里斯·温克尔曼说，该超级政治行动委员会由约翰逊的盟友运营。“它始终关乎经济。”
“It was about the economy,” said Chris Winkelman, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC run by Johnson allies. “It was always about the economy.”
特朗普总统在达拉斯举行的共和党中期党代表大会第二天晚上登台。（Jabin Botsford拍摄，供《华尔街日报》）
President Trump on stage during the second night of the Republican National Midterm Convention in Dallas. (Jabin Botsford for WSJ)
