对于特朗普和美国而言，明确的选举裁决留下了模糊的未来随着美国人消化这一令人震惊的新政治现实，他们面临着一个时间差：从他们实际上已决定不再接受这位总统，到他真正卸任，中间还有一段时期。自败选以来的几天里，他听起来像一个处于否认状态的人。
For Trump and America, a Clear Election Verdict Leaves a Murky Future As Americans absorb a stunning new political reality, they face a gap between the time they effectively decided to be done with the president and the time he is actually done. In the days since his defeat, he has sounded like a man in denial.
随着他的政党仍在拾掇这场政治地震留下的废墟，一位看似浑然不觉的特朗普总统，为新的白宫舞厅在一根钢梁上签名，并飞往佛罗里达州就太空计划发表演讲。他近来显得平淡，也许还有点发愣。
With his party still picking through the wreckage of a political earthquake, a seemingly oblivious President Trump signed a steel beam for his new White House ballroom and flew to Florida to give a speech on the space program. He seems flat these days, maybe a little dazed.
如果唐纳德·特朗普仍在消化上周那场让他的政党在国会失去权力的选举，那么唐纳德·特朗普的美国也是如此。双方都在吸收这一令人震惊的现实：民主党在得克萨斯、堪萨斯和南卡罗来纳等长期作为共和党大本营的州——甚至可能包括密西西比州——取得了压倒性胜利。
If Donald Trump is still processing the election that swept his party from power in Congress last week, so too is Donald Trump’s America. Both parties are still absorbing the stunning reality of sweeping Democratic victories in states like Texas, Kansas and South Carolina that were long G.O.P. strongholds — and possibly even Mississippi.
但正如中期选举的裁决清晰明了，未来却更加模糊。在特朗普先生主导国家政治长达十年之后，国家现在面临着一个深度不确定的时期，一个空位期：介于美国人实际上已决定对特朗普先生“说再见”，到他真正“说再见”之间。
But as clear as the midterm verdict was, the future is cloudier. After a decade in which Mr. Trump has dominated national politics, the country now faces a period of profound uncertainty, an interregnum between the time that Americans effectively decided that they were done with Mr. Trump and the time when he is actually done.
一位不受欢迎、被选民抛弃的跛脚鸭总统，将如何在其任期最后两年施政？一个破碎的共和党将如何在后特朗普时代重建自己，而特朗普本人仍在身边，且不愿退出舞台？新近掌权的民主党将如何利用他们在国会的新多数地位，并确立超越单纯“反特朗普党派”的自我定位？
How does an unpopular, lame-duck president spurned by the electorate govern in his final two years in office? How does a shattered Republican Party rebuild itself for a post-Trump era while Mr. Trump himself is still around and unwilling to cede the stage? How do newly empowered Democrats use their new majorities in Congress and define themselves beyond simply being the anti-Trump party?
对于那些猜测特朗普先生会在其政党失利后选择和解还是对抗的人来说，他在周五决定任命其首席意识形态斗士斯蒂芬·米勒为下一任白幕僚长，给出了答案——答案不是和解。以防信息未被接收，他在周六在社交媒体上发帖，提议让终极格斗冠军赛首席执行官达纳·怀特担任新闻秘书。特朗普先生或许受了伤，但受伤的野兽也能大力挣扎。
To those who wondered whether Mr. Trump would choose conciliation or confrontation in response to his party’s defeat, his decision on Friday to install Stephen Miller, his top ideological warrior, as the next White House chief of staff provided an answer — and it was not conciliation. In case the message was not received, on Saturday he posted an offer on social media for Dana White, the Ultimate Fighting Championship chief executive, to be his press secretary. Mr. Trump may be wounded, but a wounded animal can thrash around powerfully.
然而，他身边的人毫不迟疑地开始展望他之后的局面。他的团队两名高级成员、副总统万斯和国防部长赫格塞斯迅速公开表达了对伊朗战争及其明智性的截然不同看法。实际上，他们开始为将在未来一年吞噬其政党的辩论设定参数。
Yet those in his circle wasted no time looking past him. Two senior members of his team, Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, quickly went public with sharply divergent views of the Iran war and the wisdom of prosecuting it. In effect, they began to set the parameters for a debate that will consume their party for the next year.
在国会山，议长迈克·约翰逊随即表示将辞职，为战败的共和党人开启领导层竞争。而民主党人则开始规划前进道路，在调查并追究特朗普团队责任的愿望与通过解决选民生活成本担忧立法的当务之急之间寻求平衡。
On Capitol Hill, Speaker Mike Johnson promptly indicated that he would step down, opening a leadership contest for the vanquished Republicans. And Democrats began mapping a path forward balancing the desire to investigate and hold Mr. Trump’s team accountable with the imperative of passing legislation addressing voter concerns about the cost of living.
“人们传达的信息是：‘是的，我们感到喜悦，感到宽慰，’”密歇根州民主党众议员希拉里·肖尔滕说。“但同时也是：‘去工作吧，国会。我们不想要政治表演，不想要戏剧，不想要内斗。’”有一点似乎可以确定——事实上的一人统治时代已经结束。自特朗普先生再次就职近22个月以来，他一直试图不仅将其意志强加于行政部门，还强加于大企业、科技行业、主要大学、律师事务所、央行、私营银行、娱乐业、体育界、博物馆、新闻媒体、国家公园、金融部门、能源部门、军队和非营利基金会。
“People are conveying: ‘Yes, we feel joy, we feel relief,’” said Representative Hillary Scholten, Democrat of Michigan. “But also: ‘Get to work, Congress. We do not want political theater, we don’t want drama, we don’t want infighting.’”One thing seems certain — the days of virtual one-man rule are over. In the nearly 22 months since Mr. Trump took office again, he has sought to impose his will not just over the executive branch but also over big business, the tech industry, major universities, law firms, the central bank, private banks, entertainment, sports, museums, the news media, national parks, the financial sector, the energy sector, the military and nonprofit foundations.
他已将联邦调查局和司法部的起诉权力用于打击政敌，尽管有时被法官和大陪审团阻拦，但最高法院已认可了他许多关于权力的主张。他已将国民警卫队派往华盛顿和其他城市的街头，同时将移民与海关执法局（ICE）变成一支准军事力量，不仅抓捕罪犯，还将那些在社区有深厚根基、原本守法的无证移民强行带走。
He has turned the prosecutorial power of the F.B.I. and Justice Department against his adversaries and, while he has been blocked at times by judges and grand juries, the Supreme Court has validated many of his assertions of authority. He has sent the National Guard into the streets of Washington and other cities, while turning ICE into a paramilitary force to haul away not just criminals but also otherwise law-abiding undocumented immigrants with deep roots in their communities.
他甚至试图重塑华盛顿的面貌，拆除白宫东翼以腾出空间建设他的新舞厅兼无人机发射台，在南草坪建直升机停机坪，提议新建一座凯旋门，翻新倒影池，彻底改造拉法耶特广场，并替换东波托马克高尔夫球场。据他前几天自己统计，他在该市创建或修复了83座雕像、喷泉和纪念碑。
He has even sought to remake the face of Washington, tearing down the East Wing of the White House to make room for his new ballroom-qua-drone-launcher, building a helipad on the South Lawn, proposing a new triumphal arch, renovating the Reflecting Pool, overhauling Lafayette Square and replacing the East Potomac golf course. By his own count the other day, he has created or restored 83 statues, fountains and monuments in the city.
在这最后两年里，他仍可预期会以前总统未曾有的方式行使权力，但现在他将面临来自反对党控制的国会的抵制，后者手握传票权和财政大权。此外，在他第二任期初期那种吞噬私营机构、迫使它们在资金、政策变更和人事决定等要求面前屈服的恐惧，肯定已经缓解。如果有什么变化的话，其中一些机构现在反而会担心，因对特朗普先生表现得过于顺从而冒犯崛起中的民主党人。
He can still be expected in these final two years to exert power in ways that previous presidents did not, but he will now face pushback from an opposition Congress armed with subpoenas and the power of the purse. Moreover, the fear that consumed private institutions in the early part of his second term and prompted them to buckle under to demands for money, policy changes and personnel decisions has certainly eased. If anything, some of them will now worry about offending the ascendant Democrats by appearing too deferential to Mr. Trump.
“魔咒已破，无敌的面纱已被刺破，”小布什总统时期的前国际经济顾问丹尼尔·M·普赖斯说。“谄媚很可能会停止，那些进贡的人——无论是为了舞厅、迷因币，还是为了平息无聊的诉讼、制作‘纪录片’，或是谋取监管便利和政府合同——很可能会被追责。”
“The spell is broken, and the veil of invincibility pierced,” said Daniel M. Price, a former international economic adviser to President George W. Bush. “The genuflection is likely to cease, and those who paid tribute — whether for ballrooms or meme coins or to settle frivolous lawsuits or to make ‘documentaries’ or to secure regulatory favors or government contracts — may well be called to account.”
总统历史学家迈克尔·贝施洛斯表示，过去80年里，没有其他总统触及过如此多的社会领域，让许多人对接下来会发生什么感到不安。“在任何其他二战后的政府中，都很难找到这种全面且不可预测变革的先例，”他说。“因此，你可以看到这座首都里不少人脸上都流露出忧虑。”这可能是这个由剧烈摇摆定义的时代中，最令人眩晕的时刻：特朗普2016年横空出世，震惊世界赢得总统宝座；四年后惨败，散布谎言试图推翻选举结果以留任；被起诉、受审、定罪，随后又上演大胆逆袭重夺白宫，如今又遭遇了半个多世纪以来、按某些衡量标准来看最惨痛的中期选举否定。
Michael Beschloss, a presidential historian, said that no other commander in chief in the past 80 years had touched so many sectors of society, leaving many nervous about what would come next. “It’s hard to find any precedent for that kind of sweeping, unpredictable change in any other post-World War II administration,” he said. “As a result, you could see apprehension on more than a few faces in this capital.”This might be the most overwhelming moment of whiplash in an era that has been defined by sharp swings: Mr. Trump came out of nowhere in 2016 and shocked the world by winning the presidency, then crashed in defeat four years later and spread lies in an effort to overturn the election and hold onto power. He was indicted, put on trial and convicted, then staged an audacious comeback to reclaim the White House and now has endured what by some measures is the most devastating midterm repudiation of a president in half a century or more.
期间，国家经历了无数磨难——百年最严重疫情、数代人以来最大经济动荡、数十年来最广泛种族骚乱、自19世纪初英军入侵以来国会大厦首次被冲击、一场海外战争的惨淡收场与另一场的鲁莽开启。所有这些，其对社会的冲击或许仍不及未来几年人工智能的影响。这无疑是一出旷古奇观，不久前还难以想象。
Through it all the country has been through a plethora of ordeals — the worst pandemic in a century, the biggest economic upheaval in generations, the most widespread racial unrest in decades, the first sacking of the Capitol since the British invasion of the early 19th century, the disastrous end of one overseas war and the rash start of another. All of which might still not eclipse the impact on society of artificial intelligence in the next few years. This has certainly been a drama for the ages, one that would have been hard to imagine not long ago.
“我们刚刚经历了一场镜中奇遇，仙境却不是仙境，”旨在提高政府效能的非营利组织“公共服务伙伴关系”总裁马克斯·斯蒂尔说，“那是疯狂和毁灭。”
“We’ve just been through the looking glass, and Wonderland wasn’t Wonderland,” said Max Stier, president of the Partnership for Public Service, a nonprofit group that aims to make government work more effectively. “It was craziness and destruction.”
曾为小布什工作的总统历史学家特维·特洛伊表示，所有的混乱最终触动了公众。“现在我们看到的是动荡，”他说，“人们不高兴。我认为他们想要常态，但无论哪个党都给不了他们常态。”自富兰克林·罗斯福以来，没有哪位总统像特朗普这样长期主导全国话语权。即使在约瑟夫·R·拜登二世入主白宫期间，特朗普仍然是关注的核心焦点。他主导了餐桌谈话，也在家人、朋友和邻里之间制造了隔阂。但上周的选举表明，公众已经厌倦了，甚至在他过去在南部和阳光地带轻松获胜的地方也是如此。
Tevi Troy, a presidential historian who previously worked for Mr. Bush, said all the disorder finally got to the public. “Now we’re looking at the tumult,” he said. “People aren’t happy. I think they wanted normal, and they’re not getting normal from either party.”No president since Franklin D. Roosevelt has dominated the national conversation for as long as Mr. Trump has. Even while President Joseph R. Biden Jr. occupied the White House, Mr. Trump was still a central focus of attention. He drove dinner-table conversations and drove wedges among families, friends and neighbors. But last week’s election suggested that the public has grown weary, even in places he won handily in the past in the South and Sunbelt.
与遭遇中期选举失利的其他总统不同，特朗普基本没有承认这一挫折。2006年小布什领导的共和党失去参众两院控制权后，他承认那是一次“重创”。2010年奥巴马领导的民主党失去众议院控制权后，他承认那是一次“惨败”。相比之下，特朗普没有表达任何谦逊之意，也没有多少承认公众对他的不满。
Unlike other presidents who suffered midterm defeats, Mr. Trump has largely not acknowledged the setback. After Mr. Bush’s Republicans lost both houses in 2006, he admitted it was a “thumping.”After President Barack Obama’s Democrats lost the House in 2010, he admitted it was a “shellacking.”Mr. Trump, by contrast, has offered no expression of humility or much recognition of public discontent with him.
与其他总统在中期选举失利后一样，特朗普现在面临着不可避免的影响力削弱。1994年，克林顿总统的民主党遭遇惨败，他只能无奈地辩称“宪法赋予了我影响力”。上周也出现了类似的回响，当时白宫只能在网上发布一条信息，称“特朗普仍然是你们的总统”。克林顿两年后成功连任，但根据宪法，特朗普没有这个机会。二战以来，五位当选两届并完成两个完整任期的总统——德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔、罗纳德·里根、布什、克林顿和奥巴马——在任期最后两年都面临着由反对党控制的国会。
Like other presidents after midterm defeats, Mr. Trump now faces an inevitable erosion of influence. After President Bill Clinton’s Democrats were swamped in 1994, he was left to argue plaintively that “the Constitution gives me relevance.”There were echoes of that last week when the White House was reduced to posting an online message saying, “TRUMP IS STILL YOUR PRESIDENT.”Mr. Clinton came back to win re-election two years later, but Mr. Trump does not have that opportunity under the Constitution. Each of the five presidents who were elected twice and served two full terms since World War II — Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, Mr. Bush, Mr. Clinton and Mr. Obama — had an opposition Congress in the final two years of his tenure.
即便如此，正如特洛伊指出的那样，总统在最后这段时间仍能发挥作用，尤其是在外交政策方面，即使没有国会配合。他的老板布什在2006年中期选举后向伊拉克增派更多部队并改变了那里的战略，帮助扭转了战争局势。克林顿在任期最后两年成功推进了科索沃战争。
Even so, presidents can still make a difference in that final stretch without Congress, especially in foreign policy, noted Mr. Troy. His old boss, Mr. Bush, after the 2006 midterm elections, surged more troops to Iraq and changed strategy there, helping to turn around the war. Mr. Clinton in his final two years successfully prosecuted the Kosovo war.
“他们并没有消失，”现为里根研究所高级研究员的特洛伊说。“他们没有巨大的立法成就——他们都没有控制国会。但他们都做了一些重要的事。最后两年是可以也确实会发生事情的。”事实上，即使在共和党同僚掌控国会时，特朗普在第二任期内也没有寻求通过国会施政，从这个意义上说，他损失较小。除了减税法案，他主要通过行政行动来推进自己的优先事项。
“They didn’t go away,” said Mr. Troy, who is now a senior fellow at the Ronald Reagan Institute. “They didn’t have huge legislative accomplishments — none of them had control of Congress. But they all did important things. Things can and do happen in the last two years.”Indeed, Mr. Trump in his second term has not sought to govern through Congress even when his fellow Republicans were in charge, so in that sense he has less to lose. Other than his tax cut bill, he has pursued his priorities largely through executive action.
尽管如此，时间紧迫，随着每一天的过去，关注点将毫不留情地转向下一届总统大选。首场预定的初选距今仅 441 天。这将是一场完全开放的角逐，也是自 1976 年以来首次没有布什、克林顿、奥巴马或特朗普出现在候选人名单上的竞选。如果万斯像共和党策略师所说的那样被削弱，这可以说将是一个世纪以来最开放的总统大选，也是自 1928 年以来，两党在起跑时都没有现任总统或明显领跑者的首次竞选。
Still, time is short and with each passing day, the focus will turn relentlessly to the next presidential election. The first scheduled primary is just 441 days away. And it will be wide open, the first contest since 1976 without a Bush, Clinton, Obama or Trump on the ticket. If Mr. Vance is as weakened as Republican strategists say, it could arguably be the most wide open presidential race in a century, the first since 1928 without an incumbent or clear front-runner in either party at the start.
“我已经收到 2028 年竞选人将途经密歇根州的联络，”这位女众议员肖尔滕感叹道，“太疯狂了。”彼得·贝克是《纽约时报》首席白宫记者。他正在报道第六位总统，有时撰写分析文章，将总统及其政府置于更宏大的背景和历史框架中。
“I’m already getting outreach from 2028 contenders who are going to pass through Michigan,” marveled Ms. Scholten, the congresswoman. “It’s wild.”Peter Baker is the chief White House correspondent for The Times. He is covering his sixth presidency and sometimes writes analytical pieces that place presidents and their administrations in a larger context and historical framework.