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共和党中期选举惨败后,特朗普总统正……After huge losses for Republicans in the midterm elections, President Trump is p

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特朗普面对新现实:任期还剩两年的“跛脚鸭”仍在抗争 在美国政坛处于核心地位长达十年之后,特朗普总统在政治上受创,权力大幅削弱。了解他的人表示,未来两年将充满变数。

Trump Wrestles With New Reality: A Lame Duck With Two Years Left to Fight After a decade at the center of American politics, President Trump is politically wounded, with diminished power. Those who know him say the next two years will be unpredictable.

毕其一生,唐纳德·J·特朗普欣然接受过许多身份:酒店开发商、真人秀明星、总统、激进派。

Over the course of his life, Donald J. Trump has readily embraced many identities: A hotel developer. A reality television star.

如今,80岁高龄的他正面对一个他宁愿不愿面对的身份:跛脚鸭总统。

A president. A firebrand. Now, at 80 years old, he is confronting one he would rather not: a lame duck.

在选民对他在第二任期中行使的广泛权力进行制衡、让民主党同时夺得众参两院控制权的几个小时里,特朗普似乎正经历悲伤的各个阶段。他否认全国范围内的“蓝色浪潮”是他的过错,也否认这是他决定与伊朗开战的直接结果。(副总统明确表示并非如此。)他接受了选举结果。而在体会到自己在任期最后两年将拥有的日渐衰退的权力时,他试图讨价还价,表示将与民主党合作,同时紧握他的否决马克笔不放。

In the hours after voters put a check on the expansive power he has flexed in his second term, giving Democrats control of both the House and the Senate, Mr. Trump seemed to be cycling through the stages of grief. He denied that a blue wave across the country had been his fault, or a direct result of his decision to go to war with Iran. (The vice president explicitly said otherwise.) He accepted the election results. And, as he absorbed the waning power he will have in his final two years in office, he bargained, saying he’d work with Democrats while clinging to his veto Sharpie.

“我大概会和民主党相处得很好,除非他们想搞破坏,”特朗普周三在记者面前说道,身后正在安装一根钢梁,这是他珍视的白宫舞厅翻新项目的一部分。

“I’ll get along probably with the Democrats, unless they want to be destructive,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Wednesday, standing in front of a steel beam that was being put into place as part of his cherished White House ballroom project.

他提到自己拥有“否决权”,随后转向一个他似乎更乐意讨论的话题:他的翻新工程。

He noted that he had “the power to veto,” before turning to a topic he seemed much more eager to discuss: his renovation projects.

特朗普是否会采取务实的交易姿态仍有待观察——一位盟友在周二惨败后形容总统“茫然若失”。

Whether Mr. Trump adopts a pragmatic deal-making posture remains to be seen — one ally described the president as “dazed” after the rout on Tuesday.

在2020年总统大选失利后,那是特朗普面临的上一次重大政治挫折,他退守海湖庄园,在那里舔舐愤怒的伤口,随后筹划卷土重来。重返白宫后,特朗普根本无视妥协。

After his loss in the 2020 presidential race, the last major political setback Mr. Trump confronted, he retreated to Mar-a-Lago, where he nursed his anger and then planned a defiant return. Once back in the White House, Mr. Trump had no use for compromise.

在经历了一段作为政治弃儿和刑事被告的时期后,特朗普先生常说自己已从被猎者变成了猎人。在他的第二个任期里,他的政府追踪打击政治敌人,发动暴力移民打压,并开启了一场让美国人生活成本上升的战争。他无需国会参与即可完成这一切。

After a period spent as a political pariah and criminal defendant, Mr. Trump liked to say that he had gone from hunted to hunter. In his second term, his administration has tracked down his political enemies, unleashed a violent immigration crackdown and started a war that has made life more expensive for Americans. He didn’t need Congress to do any of it.

但周二,这种局面再次逆转。民主党人誓言将调查政府滥职、总统亲信涉嫌腐败以及移民与海关执法局(ICE)的强硬手段。据知情人士透露,众议院议员计划审查参与政府移民议程的高级官员,包括白宫副幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒(Stephen Miller)、特朗普的边境沙皇汤姆·霍曼(Tom Homan)以及国土安全部部长马克韦恩·马林(Markwayne Mullin)。

But on Tuesday, that dynamic flipped again. Democrats are vowing to investigate government abuses, alleged corruption by the president’s associates and the heavy-handed tactics of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. House lawmakers plan to scrutinize top officials involved in the administration’s immigration agenda, including the White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller; Tom Homan, Mr. Trump’s border czar; and the homeland security secretary, Markwayne Mullin, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions.

“请律师吧,”加利福尼亚州民主党籍众议员罗伯特·加西亚(Robert Garcia)在社交媒体上写道,他有望领导众议院监督委员会。

“LAWYER UP,” Representative Robert Garcia, the California Democrat poised to lead the House Oversight Committee, wrote on social media.

据亲眼目睹特朗普反复无常的性格及其拒不认错态度的人士称,这种政治压力可能让特朗普先生和国家面临难以预测的两年。

The political pressure could make for an unpredictable two years for both Mr. Trump and the country, according to people who have observed firsthand his volatile personality and his refusal to acknowledge mistakes.

“当你看到他发布行政命令、行使赦免权以及所有这些事情的能力时,他仍将造成巨大破坏,”前白宫副新闻秘书莎拉·马修斯(Sarah Matthews)说,她在2021年1月6日国会山遭袭击后辞职。“而在未来两年里,局势只会变得更加混乱和危险。”政治对手认为,特朗普在过去近十年里确立了对共和党的主导地位,也将竭尽全力维持对这个他已有效地按自己的形象重塑了的政党的控制权。

“When you look at things like his ability to do executive orders and grant pardons and all of these things, he’s going to still be doing enormous damage,” said Sarah Matthews, a former White House deputy press secretary who resigned after the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. “And it’s just going to get even more chaotic and dangerous in these next two years.”Political rivals believe that Mr. Trump, who has asserted his dominance over the Republican Party for the better part of the last decade, will also do everything to maintain his grip on a party that he effectively reshaped in his image.

“唐纳德·特朗普需要关注,就像大多数人需要氧气一样,”新泽西州前州长克里斯·克里斯蒂说,他是一名共和党人,正在考虑在2028年再次竞选总统。“他离不开关注,现在他将在其政治生涯中首次经历‘跛脚鸭’的处境。因此,他将不得不比平时更加出格地表演,以转移你们对2028年大选的注意力。”

“Donald Trump needs attention like most people need oxygen,” said former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, a Republican who is considering another presidential run in 2028. “He can’t do without it, and he’s now going to experience for the first time in his political career being a lame duck. So what he’ll need to do is to act out even more than he normally does in order to divert you from the 2028 race.”

特朗普先生目前对如何度过未来两年语焉不详,他在周二接受播客主持人、前联邦调查局高级官员丹·邦吉诺采访时表示,他手头有“许多、许多事情在酝酿之中”。他没有详细说明,而是转入了他竞选演讲中的惯用套话:“你知道,现在我们在美国建设的工厂和厂房比历史上任何时候都多,这意味着咆哮的二十年代,这意味着每——从来没有过这样的事情。”

Mr. Trump has so far been vague about how he wants to spend the next two years, telling the podcaster and former top F.B.I. official Dan Bongino in an interview on Tuesday that he has “many, many things in the hopper.”He did not elaborate and instead pivoted into a standard part of his stump speech: “You know, right now we have more factories and plants being built in the United States than at any time ever before, and that means the Roaring Twenties, that means every — there’s never been anything like it.” (Manufacturing has actually slowed since 2024, according to the National Association of Manufacturers.)

(根据全国制造商协会的数据,制造业实际上自2024年以来已放缓。)他在采访中暗示,他可能寻求与政治对手在债务上限和移民执法这两个困扰历届政府的棘手政策问题上联手合作。

He suggested in interviews that he might seek to join forces with his political opponents on the debt ceiling and immigration enforcement — two thorny policy issues that have bedeviled past administrations.

他反复援引自己的否决立法权,隐含地强调了他在任期最后两年将处于多大程度的守势。

And he repeatedly invoked his ability to veto legislation, implicitly underscoring how much he will be on defense in his last two years in office.

在大选日后的首次公开露面中,特朗普先生周三站在白宫记者面前,谈的不是吸取的任何教训,也不是共和党的前进道路。相反,他沉吟于自己的舞厅项目和个人未来,特别是弹劾这一话题。

In his first public appearance after Election Day, Mr. Trump stood before reporters at the White House on Wednesday and talked not about any lessons learned, or the path forward for the Republican Party. Instead, he mused about his ballroom project and his own future, particularly the subject of impeachment.

“我认为,如果他们那样做——无理由弹劾——将会摧毁民主党,”特朗普先生说。“为什么?因为国家成功了?我们的国家现在比历史上任何时候都更成功。”他停顿了一下,将话题转回舞厅建设上。

“I think it would destroy the Democrat Party if they did that — impeachment for no reason,” Mr. Trump said. “What, for having a successful country? Our country is more successful now than at any time in history.”He paused, turning his focus back on the ballroom construction.

“看光束升起,”他说。“现在想象到处都是吊灯。” 几位高级助手已经在筹划,如果共和党失去众议院、参议院或两院兼失,特朗普先生仅凭行政权力能完成什么。据一位白宫官员透露,参与者包括米勒先生、白宫预算局局长拉塞尔·T·沃特以及白宫立法事务工作人员,该官员因描述内部讨论而要求匿名。此人称,总统很快将收到一份“选项菜单”。

“Watch the beam go up,” he said. “Now envision chandeliers all over.”Several top aides had already been planning for what Mr. Trump could accomplish through executive power alone if Republicans lost one or both chambers of Congress. Those involved include Mr. Miller; Russell T. Vought, the White House budget director; and members of the White House legislative affairs staff, according to a White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal discussions. The president would receive a “menu of options” soon, the person said.

周二晚间,在白宫东厅,关于特朗普先生总统任期及其身边人接下来命运的低声交谈悄然展开,特朗普先生召集助手和内阁成员在此举行了一场变得沉闷压抑的观选派对。当总统注视着选情回报并接听电话时,周围一些人悄声议论特朗普先生是否会留任内阁成员或其幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯,两位出席者透露了这一情况。白宫未回应置评请求。

A hushed conversation of what comes next for Mr. Trump’s presidency and those around him played out on Tuesday night inside the White House, where Mr. Trump gathered aides and cabinet members in the East Room for what turned into a morose watch party. As the president watched the returns and fielded phone calls, some of the people around him quietly discussed whether Mr. Trump would keep in place members of his cabinet or his chief of staff, Susie Wiles, according to two people who attended. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

政府官员和特朗普先生的盟友表示,总统及其团队正在为国会调查和其余任期内的高人员流动率做好准备。

Administration officials and Mr. Trump’s allies said the president and his staff were girding themselves for both congressional investigations and high turnover for the remainder of his time in office.

一些人表示焦虑,因为除了今年早些时候一次关于如何总体应对国会监督的简报外,几乎没有关于如果工作人员被卷入调查该怎么做的指导。

Some expressed anxiety that there had been little guidance for staff about what to do if they got pulled into investigations, other than a briefing earlier this year advising them generally how to respond to congressional oversight.

随着政治话题转向下一个周期,特朗普表示,他尚未准备好指定政治继承人,或支持一名候选人在2028年接替他。周二晚间,福克斯新闻的玛莎·麦卡勒姆问他是否希望通过共和党初选来决定2028年总统提名人,这位总统说:“我认为最终会变成某种那样的情况。”到了周三上午,副总统万斯在社交媒体上发布了一条长文,将共和党失利归咎于决定与伊朗开战,这显然是试图与特朗普划清界限。

As the political conversation turns to the next cycle, Mr. Trump indicated that he was not ready to name a political heir or back a candidate to succeed him in 2028. Asked by Martha MacCallum of Fox News late Tuesday evening whether he wanted a Republican primary to determine the 2028 presidential nominee, the president said, “I think it’s going to end up being somewhat of that.”By Wednesday morning, Vice President JD Vance had posted a lengthy message on social media placing blame for Republican losses on the decision to go to war with Iran, an apparent effort to separate himself from Mr. Trump.

多位接近总统的人士表示,他们认为特朗普不太可能在短期内背书万斯——或任何其他人。他们说,特朗普首先是一位表演者,他将希望继续处于聚光灯下。佐兰·卡诺-扬斯在华盛顿参与了采访报道。

Several people close to the president say they believe that he is unlikely to endorse Mr. Vance — or anyone else — anytime soon. Mr. Trump is an entertainer above all, they say, and he will want to stay in the spotlight. Zolan Kanno-Youngs contributed reporting from Washington.

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