据报道，伊拉克总理阿里·扎伊迪已告知政治盟友，他看过一份提交给美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的泄露战争计划，该计划设想美军通过伊拉克进入伊朗南部。这一披露发生之际，巴格达正努力在持续的美伊战争中保持中立。
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has reportedly told political allies that he saw a leaked war plan presented to US President Donald Trump, envisaging American troops entering southern Iran through Iraq. The revelations come as Baghdad struggles to maintain neutrality amid the ongoing US-Iran War. Iraq's Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, has reportedly told political allies that a leaked US war plan presented to American President Donald Trump envisages American forces entering Southern Iran through Iraqi territory. Another scenario also presented by Zaidi is reported to involve Tehran pressuring Baghdad to launch an invasion of Kuwait from Iraq.
据伊拉克报纸《新未来报》报道，身兼伊拉克武装部队总司令的总理阿里·扎伊迪，在协调框架——该国什叶派政党联盟——的一次会议上作出上述表态。
According to a report by Iraqi newspaper Al-Mada, Zaidi, who also serves as the Commander-in-Chief of Iraq's Armed Forces, made the claims during a meeting of the Coordination Framework, an alliance of the country's Shia political parties.
《新未来报》援引扎伊迪的话称，他已看过部分泄露的战争计划，该计划勾勒出美伊战争的三种可能情景，涉及双方在伊拉克或伊朗领土上进行地面战斗。
Al-Mada reported Zaidi as telling attendees that he had seen part of the leaked war plan, which outlines three possible scenarios for a war between the US and Iran, involving ground combat between both sides on Iraqi or Iranian territory.
扎伊迪的披露正值人们对美伊重新爆发对抗的担忧日益加剧之际，也引发了巴格达可能被卷入战争的担忧。尽管伊拉克一再宣布其中立立场，但其地理位置（位于伊朗与美国海湾盟友之间）意味着，它难以阻止本国领土成为战争一部分。伊拉克总理看过的美军战争计划是什么？
Zaidi's revelations come amid growing fears of a renewed US-Iran confrontation, and also concerns that Baghdad could be dragged into the war. Even though Iraq has repeatedly declared its neutrality, its geographic position (between Iran and the US' Gulf state allies), means that it is struggling to prevent its territory from becoming a part of the war. WHAT ARE THE US WAR PLANS SEEN BY IRAQ'S PM?
据《新未来报》报道，伊拉克总理阿里·扎伊迪展示了美军规划者设想的、已提交给美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的至少三种可能情景。
According to the Al-Mada report, Iraq's PM, Ali al-Zaidi, presented all least three possible scenarios envisioned by American war planners that had been presented to US President Donald Trump.
第一种情景涉及美军地面部队利用伊拉克领土发动对伊朗南部的入侵。
The first scenario involved American ground troops using Iraqi territory to launch an invasion of Southern Iran.
伊朗南部是该国一个特别重要的部分，因为它包括胡齐斯坦省，这是一个与伊拉克巴士拉省接壤的产油大省。该地区拥有伊朗一些主要油田和炼油基础设施，并位于阿拉伯河沿岸，该水道将两国与波斯湾相连。因此，美国在该地区的潜在地面行动将对德黑兰产生重大的经济和战略影响。
Southern Iran is a particularly important part of the country because it includes Khuzestan, an oil-rich province bordering Iraq's Bara governorate. The region houses some of Iran's major oilfields and refining infrastructure, and lies along the Shatt al-Arab waterway, which connects both countries to the Persian Gulf. A potential US ground operation in the region would therefore carry significant economic and strategic implications for Tehran.
具有讽刺意味的是，伊拉克独裁者萨达姆·侯赛因在与伊朗长达近十年的战争中采取了类似的战略。1980年至1988年两伊战争的初期阶段，巴格达军队发动大规模攻势试图占领胡齐斯坦省，但在面对伊朗的顽强抵抗时陷入僵局。
Ironically, a similar strategy has been adopted by Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein during his nearly decade-long war with Iran. The initial stages of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war saw Baghdad's military forces launching a massive offensive to take Khuzestan, which was bogged down in the face of heavy Iranian resistance.
扎伊迪勾勒的第二种情景设想德黑兰施压巴格达，允许利用伊拉克领土对科威特发动武装入侵。这个小型、产油丰富的海湾国家长期以来一直是美国的盟友，在美伊战争期间本身也遭受了反复的导弹和无人机袭击，其中包括归咎于德黑兰的袭击。
The second scenario outlined by Zaidi envisaged Tehran pressuring Baghdad to allow the use of Iraqi territory for an armed incursion into Kuwait. The small, oil-rich Gulf state has long been a US ally and has itself been subjected to repeated missile and drone attacks during the US-Iran war, including strikes attributed to Tehran.
上一次科威特领土主权因全面入侵而遭到侵犯是在1990年8月，当时萨达姆·侯赛因的部队入侵并占领了该国。随后的海湾战争中，美国领导的国际联盟对伊拉克军队发动大规模军事行动，于1991年2月将其赶出科威特，并重创巴格达军队。该行动还涉及大规模空中轰炸和伊拉克军事基础设施大部分的毁坏。
The last time Kuwait's territorial sovereignty was violated through a full-scale invasion was in August 1990, when Saddam Hussein's forces invaded and occupied the country. The subsequent Gulf War saw a US-led international coalition launch a massive military campaign against Iraqi forces, driving them out of Kuwait in February 1991, and smashing Baghdad's military to pieces. The campaign also involved extensive aerial bombardment and the destruction of large parts of Iraq's military infrastructure.
然而，细节仍然很少。《麦达报》未披露扎伊迪提出的第三种情景，也未提供关于已披露的两种情景的进一步作战细节。目前也不清楚这些情景是否已获华盛顿正式批准，抑或仅为应急预案。伊拉克陷入美伊夹缝总理阿里·扎伊迪的披露正值外界日益担忧伊拉克可能被卷入美伊冲突更深层之际。尽管巴格达已宣布保持中立，但其地处伊朗与美国盟友海湾国家之间，加上强大的伊朗支持武装团体存在，使该国难以置身事外。
Details, however, remain scarce. Al-Mada did not disclose the third scenario presented by Zaidi, nor did it provide further operational details about the two that were revealed. It is also unclear whether these scenarios have been formally approved by Washington or are merely contingency plans. IRAQ CAUGHT BETWEEN THE US AND IRAN Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's revelations come amid growing fears that Iraq could be dragged deeper into the US-Iran conflict. Though Baghdad has declared neutrality, its location between Iran and US-allied Gulf states, coupled with the presence of powerful Iran-backed armed groups, has made it difficult to keep the country out of the fighting.
二十多年来，伊拉克一直在华盛顿与德黑兰之间寻求平衡。2003年美国领导的入侵及萨达姆·侯赛因被推翻，让美国获得重要立足点，而伊朗则通过政治盟友和武装团体扩大影响力。其中若干派别在2014年至2017年抗击“伊斯兰国”的战斗中崭露头角。
Iraq has spent more than two decades balancing relations with Washington and Tehran. The US-led invasion in 2003 and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein gave Washington a significant foothold, while Iran expanded its influence through political allies and armed groups. Several of these factions gained prominence during the fight against the Islamic State between 2014 and 2017.
自近期持续冲突于2月28日爆发以来，挑战进一步加剧。据总部位于比利时的智库国际危机组织报告，伊朗结盟的伊拉克派别声称对伊拉克境内及整个地区的美国目标发动了750多次袭击。以色列也打击了这些团体的武器库和发射阵地，而伊朗则袭击了哈里尔和埃尔比勒机场的美军阵地。危机组织称，战争首月美国对伊朗支持派别的打击造成约80名武装人员丧生。
The challenge has intensified since the recent ongoing conflict began on February 28. According to a report by the Belgium-based think tank, the International Crisis Group, Iran-aligned Iraqi factions claimed more than 750 attacks on US targets in Iraq and across the region. Israel also struck weapons depots and launch sites belonging to these groups, while Iran targeted US positions at Harir and Erbil airport. US strikes on Iran-backed factions killed around 80 fighters in the war's first month, the Crisis Group said.
巴格达多次表示不愿被卷入冲突。据《阿拉伯新闻》报道，扎伊迪在11月5日与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普通电话后重申，伊拉克领土不得被用于向邻国发动袭击。
Baghdad has repeatedly said it does not want to be drawn into the conflict. After a phone call with US President Donald Trump on November 5, al-Zaidi reiterated that Iraqi territory must not be used to launch attacks against neighbouring countries, according to Arab News.
外交部长福阿德·侯赛因也警告武装团体不要参与伊朗的任何报复行动。他在接受底格里斯电视台采访时表示，伊拉克没有准备好迎接另一场战争。“我们不属于任何轴心，也不希望让伊拉克竞技场变成战场。”话虽如此，巴格达依然面临压力。路透社报道，华盛顿一直在施压伊拉克，要求其解除许多德黑兰支持的武装团体的武装，并于11月6日要求巴格达关闭除两个以外的所有与伊朗的边境口岸。
Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has also warned armed groups against joining any Iranian retaliation. Speaking to Dijlah TV, he said Iraq was not prepared for another war. "We are not part of any axis, and we do not want to let the Iraqi arena be turned into a battlefield." All this being said, Baghdad remains under pressure. Reuters reported that Washington has been pressurising Iraq to disarm many of the Tehran-backed armed groups and on November 6, asked Baghdad to close all but two of its border crossings with Iran.
另一方面，路透社9月报道，五个亲伊朗武装团体拒绝了巴格达设定的最后期限，拒绝交出武器、解散组织并融入国家安全部队。他们还要求保证美军不会重返伊拉克，且华盛顿将停止干预该国的政治和经济决策。
On the other hand, Reuters reported back in September that five Iran-aligned armed groups had rejected Baghdad's deadline to surrender their weapons, dissolve their organisations and integrate into state security forces. They also demanded guarantees that American forces would not return to Iraq and that Washington would stop influencing the country's political and economic decisions.
这使巴格达面临来自双方的压力：华盛顿希望巴格达遏制伊拉克境内的伊朗支持武装团体，而德黑兰则有兴趣保持对这些团体的影响力。政府宣布中立，几乎无法阻止武装团体利用伊拉克领土攻击美国利益。
This leaves Baghdad facing pressure from both sides: Washington wants Baghdad to curb Iran-backed groups on Iraqi soil, while Tehran has an interest in preserving its influence over them. The government's declaration of neutrality has done little to prevent armed groups from using Iraqi territory to attack US interests.
据报道的情景涉及美军穿越伊拉克进入伊朗，以及德黑兰可能利用伊拉克领土对科威特采取行动，这凸显了巴格达的困境。扎伊迪希望让国家置身于战争之外，但发现维持中立变得越来越难以持续。
The reported scenarios involving US forces crossing Iraq to enter Iran and Tehran potentially using Iraqi territory to move against Kuwait underline Baghdad's predicament. Zaidi wants to keep his country out of the war but is finding maintaining neutrality is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.