英国国家社会研究中心（NatCen）上周发布的一项新调查显示，大约五分之四的英国人认为以色列对世界和平构成严重威胁。
Around four in five Britons view Israel as a serious threat to world peace, according to a new survey by the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen), published last week.A total of 78% of respondents said they view Israel as a serious threat, compared with 48% 20 years ago.
受访者中，有78%的人表示认为以色列是严重威胁，而20年前这一比例为48%。过去一年，这一比例又上升了整整10个百分点。
The percentage has also increased a full 10% in the last year.
认为美国对世界和平构成严重威胁的受访者人数与以色列相近，为74%。这一比例仅在两年内翻了一番，2024年同一问题的受访比例为35%。
The number of respondents who said they view the US as a serious threat to world peace was similar to the number for Israel, at 74%. This had doubled in just two years, with the same question receiving 35% in 2024.
被认为对世界和平威胁最大的国家是俄罗斯（89%），其次是以色列、伊朗（75%）、美国、朝鲜（66%）、中国（62%）和沙特阿拉伯（34%）。过去一年，以色列已超过朝鲜。
The country deemed the highest threat to world peace was Russia (89%), followed by Israel, Iran (75%), the USA, North Korea (66%), China (62%) and Saudi Arabia (34%). Israel has surpassed North Korea in the last year.
分析这一趋势时，NatCen表示，以色列的声誉“似乎因其参与最近的中东冲突而受损”。
“二十年前，不到一半的人认为以色列对和平构成严重威胁。到2024年秋季，当时加沙地带在以色列对2023年10月7日哈马斯入侵的回应中遭受重创，近四分之三的人持这种看法。虽然这一数字随后在秋季略有下降，降至约三分之二，但今年春季的后续调查显示，在伊朗轰炸行动之后，现在有78%的人认为以色列对全球和平构成严重威胁。”
“当然，人们也有理由认为，与其仅仅根据以色列自身的行为来评判，不如说英国的一些人可能担心，涉及以色列的事态发展可能引发更广泛的地区对抗，从而成为中东更广泛地缘政治不稳定的催化剂。”
Analyzing the trend, NatCen said Israel's reputation has “seemingly suffered from its involvement in recent Middle East conflict.”“Two decades ago, a little under half regarded Israel as a serious threat to peace. By the autumn of 2024, by which point Gaza had suffered heavy damage in the wake of Israel's response to the Hamas incursion on October 7, 2023, nearly three-quarters felt that way. And although that figure subsequently dropped a little in the autumn, to around two-thirds, in the subsequent survey this spring, following the Iran bombing campaign, 78% now saw Israel as a serious threat to global peace.”“It is, of course, plausible that, rather than simply judging Israel solely on the basis of its own actions, some people in Britain may fear the risk that developments involving Israel could trigger a much broader regional confrontation, as a catalyst for wider geopolitical instability in the Middle East.”
对以色列的看法在政治光谱上各不相同。对以色列的看法在政治派别上也存在显著差异。
Views on Israel vary across political spectrumViews on Israel also differed significantly by political affiliation.
保守党和改革党支持者不如工党、自由民主党和绿党支持者将以色列或美国视为严重威胁，而更可能将中国、朝鲜和伊朗视为威胁。绿党与改革党支持者之间的分歧尤为明显。绿党选民比改革党支持者更有可能将以色列视为严重威胁，高出26个百分点，对美国也是如此，高出46个百分点。相反，改革党支持者更可能将中国、朝鲜和伊朗视为威胁，分别高出29、30和35个百分点。
Conservative and Reform supporters were less likely than Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green supporters to regard Israel or the US as serious threats, while being more likely to view China, North Korea, and Iran as threats. The divide was particularly pronounced between Green and Reform supporters. Green voters were 26 percentage points more likely than Reform supporters to view Israel as a serious threat, and 46 points more likely to say the same of the US. Conversely, Reform supporters were more likely to regard China, North Korea, and Iran as threats, with gaps of 29, 30, and 35 points, respectively.
不同年龄段的看法存在差异。另一个趋势是，年轻的英国人比老年一代更可能将美国和以色列视为对全球和平的威胁，这表明人们对英国传统民主盟友的看法正在发生代际转变。
Views vary across age rangeAnother trend is that younger Britons are more likely than older generations to view the US and Israel as threats to global peace, suggesting a generational shift away from traditional perceptions of Britain's democratic allies.“The findings suggest an important communication challenge for the government, which is central to its legitimacy to pursue the national interest,” NatSec wrote.
NatSec写道：“研究结果表明，政府面临着一项重要的沟通挑战，这对其追求国家利益的合法性至关重要。”公众共识在威胁迫在眉睫、可见且易于理解的情况下似乎最为强烈，例如俄罗斯的情况。
相比之下，当安全挑战是渐进的、技术复杂的或战略上间接的，如中国的情况时，人们的看法在年龄和政治立场上有些不同。当涉及目前正在采取更高风险外交政策的既定盟友，如美国和以色列时，模式甚至更加复杂。
“Public consensus appears strongest where threats are immediate, visible, and easily understood, as in the case of Russia.“By contrast, where security challenges are gradual, technologically complex, or strategically indirect, as with China, perceptions differ somewhat by age and political outlook. The patterns are even more complex when they pertain to established allies currently pursuing more high-risk foreign policies, such as the United States and Israel.”