周二，在唐纳德·特朗普表示伊朗战争可能“很快”结束后，油价下跌。布伦特原油首次自8月以来跌破每桶90美元，而西德州原油（WTI）跌至84.59美元。
Oil prices fell on Tuesday after Donald Trump said the Iran war could end “fairly soon.”Brent slipped below $90 a barrel for the first time since August, while WTI fell to $84.59.
分析人士表示，地区石油流量回升以及有关伊朗可能软化对霍尔木兹海峡立场的报道，缓解了对供应短缺的担忧。
Recovering regional oil flows and reports that Iran may soften its position on the Strait of Hormuz have eased concerns about supply shortages, according to analysts.
周二，国际油价基准布伦特原油首次自8月以来跌破每桶90美元，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的言论激发了结束华盛顿与伊朗长达近九个月冲突的希望。
International oil benchmark Brent Crude fell below $90 a barrel for the first time since August on Tuesday as comments from U.S. President Donald Trump fueled hopes for an end to Washington's nearly nine-month conflict with Iran.
作为全球约80%原油价格基准的布伦特原油，在东部时间上午5点33分下跌2.65%，报每桶90.14美元，此前1月到期合约早些时候曾跌破每桶90美元。WTI原油下跌2.4%，报每桶84.78美元。
Brent, the price gauge for around 80% of global crude, was 2.65% lower at $90.14 at 5:33 a.m. ET after contracts with January expiry dipped below $90 earlier in the morning. WTI Crude was down 2.4% at $84.78 a barrel.
特朗普周一表示，与伊朗的战争可能“很快”结束，德黑兰正与华盛顿“非常礼貌地”进行对话。
Trump said on Monday that the war with Iran could end "fairly soon" and that Tehran was "talking very politely" with Washington.
“我们看到这场冲突走向结束的势头。我认为它很快就会结束，”他在白宫会晤卡塔尔首相谢赫·穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿勒萨尼后表示。“伊朗在军事上实际上已经结束了，”特朗普对记者说。
"We're seeing momentum toward the end of this conflict. I think it's going to be ending fairly soon," he said at the White House following a meeting with Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. "Iran militarily is effectively over," Trump told reporters.
特朗普还在Truth Social上发帖称，卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、巴林和科威特“更倾向于维持现状”，即维持对伊朗的海上封锁，并阻止该国利用陆路运输先进武器和其他物资。
Trump also said in a Truth Social post that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait would "prefer the status quo," namely maintaining a naval blockade against Iran and preventing the country from using ground routes to transport advanced weapons and other materials.
今年以来，原油价格波动剧烈，对美国和以色列与伊朗之间战争任何被认为的方向转变都十分敏感。
Crude oil prices have been highly volatile this year, proving sensitive to any perceived shift in direction in the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran.
布伦特原油开年时约为每桶60美元，随后在三月和四月军事打击升级时飙升至每桶130美元。六月和七月价格回落，但随着冲突日益显得僵持，价格又回升至这些水平。
Brent Crude started the year around $60 a barrel before soaring as high as $130 a barrel as military strikes escalated in March and April. Prices retreated in June and July before climbing back to those levels as the conflict increasingly appeared entrenched.
通过关键的霍尔木兹海峡的原油流量已基本恢复，但由于更广泛的全球冲突——包括胡塞武装袭击沙特阿拉伯和俄乌战争——加剧了炼油能力短缺，导致能源市场波动加剧，消费者遭受损失，柴油、汽油和航空燃油价格飙升。
Crude oil flows through the key Strait of Hormuz waterway have largely recovered But consumers have suffered from resulting volatility in energy markets, as wider global conflicts — including Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Russia-Ukraine war — exacerbate a shortage of refining capacity, sending prices of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel soaring.
特朗普和副总统万斯均承认，公众对伊朗战争的反对和高昂的能源价格在共和党上周在美国中期选举中惨败中发挥了作用。尽管双方官员继续互相交换敌对言辞，特别是在争论霍尔木兹海峡控制权之际，美国自9月以来基本避免了军事打击，特朗普在10月初表示，打击不会在中期选举前恢复。
Trump and Vice President JD Vance have both acknowledged that public disapproval of the Iran war and high energy prices played a role in the Republicans' punishing result in the U.S. midterms last week While officials on both sides have continued to trade hostile words, particularly as they debate control of the Strait of Hormuz the U.S. had largely held back on military strikes since September, with Trump saying in early October they would not resume until after the midterms.
据报道两枚导弹击中位于伊朗南部海岸霍尔木兹海峡附近的格什姆岛后，美国实施了特朗普所谓的“小规模打击”。
The U.S. carried out what Trump called "minor strikes" on Iran after reports that two missiles struck Qeshm Island, located near the Strait of Hormuz off the country's southern coast.
地区谈判前景仍不确定。分析人士对美国政府在民主党在中期选举中大获全胜后将如何处理伊朗冲突存在分歧，尽管市场最初的反应显示出对达成协议的希望，但一些人认为升级的可能性很大。
Regional negotiations remain uncertain Analysts were divided on how the U.S. administration would approach the Iran conflict after the Democrats' resounding midterm victories, with some viewing escalation as a strong possibility despite the initial market reaction suggesting hopes of a deal.
“随着预期增强，认为美伊冲突可能走向缓和，市场持续消解近几周内嵌入价格中的部分地缘政治风险溢价，”英集团策略师埃瓦·曼特和沃伦·帕特森周二在一份报告中表示。
"The market has continued to unwind some of the geopolitical risk premium built into prices in recent weeks as expectations grow that the conflict between the US and Iran could move towards de-escalation," ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson said in a note Tuesday.
有迹象显示地区石油供应正在恢复，这增加了下行压力……有报道称伊朗可能在霍尔木兹海峡控制权问题上软化立场，这也减轻了人们对全球最重要石油运输航线之一长期中断的担忧。
"Signs that regional oil flows are recovering have added to the downward pressure... Reports that Iran may be softening its position on control of the Strait of Hormuz have also reduced concerns over a prolonged disruption to one of the world's most important oil transit routes."
目前，更多海湾石油重返市场以及局势缓和的前景，正在将部分地缘政治溢价从原油价格中剥离。然而，由于地区谈判仍存不确定性，且基础设施风险依然存在，我们预计油价将继续对中东事态发展保持敏感。能源咨询公司FGE主席费雷伊敦·费沙拉基周二在CNBC节目《Squawk Box Asia》上表示，尽管市场有所波动，他仍不认为美国和伊朗有达成和平协议的前景。
"For now, the return of more Gulf barrels and the prospect of easing tensions are taking some of the geopolitical premium out of crude. However, with regional negotiations still uncertain and infrastructure risks persisting, we expect oil prices to remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East." Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of energy consultancy FGE, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Tuesday that, despite market moves, he still did not see any prospects of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. "The difference between the two sides is so wide, it cannot be bridged.
费沙拉基说：“双方分歧太大，无法弥合。最重要的是，美国要求将所有核材料、浓缩材料都转移出伊朗，伊朗政权绝不可能同意这一点，伊朗政权也绝不可能同意让霍尔木兹海峡像战争前那样恢复石油自由通行。”“夹在这两个问题之间，我根本看不出能达成协议。
Most importantly, the U.S. wants all the nuclear material, enriched material, to be transferred out of Iran, and there is no way that the Iranian regime would agree to this, and there is no way the Iranian regime would agree to let the Strait of Hormuz be open for a free flow of oil the way it was before the war," Fesharaki said. "So, with these two in between, I just can't see a deal being made. "Trump has to decide.
“特朗普必须做决定。要么他说‘我宣布胜利并撤走’，要么他发动战争。如果发动战争，从今天起他和[以色列总理]内塔尼亚胡只有两周的时间窗口，否则长期来看根本不会有战争，”费沙拉基补充道。
Either he says, 'I declare victory and walk away,' or he goes to war. If he goes to war, he's got only a window of two weeks from today for himself and for [Israeli Prime Minister] Netanyahu, or there will be no war at all on a long-term basis," Fesharaki added.
内塔尼亚胡领导的政党在上个月的以色列大选中未能赢得多数席位，竞争对手、前以色列国防军参谋长加迪·艾森科特于周日正式获授组建政府。
Netanyahu's political party failed to win a majority in Israel's election last month, with rival Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of the Israel Defense Forces, officially tasked with forming a government on Sunday.