Investing.com——华尔街周二的焦点是10月份美国消费者通胀报告，该报告的数值高于预期。该数据加上美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）的鹰派言论，使交易员几乎锁定了12月加息0.25个百分点的预期，甚至开始考虑加大幅度的0.5个百分点加息。
Investing.com -- Wall Street’s focus on Tuesday was on the October U.S. consumer inflation report which came in hotter-than-expected. The data, combined with hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, led to traders all but locking in an expected quarter-point rate hike in December and even considering a supersized half-point increase.
根据美国劳工统计局的数据，10月份总体消费者物价指数（CPI）环比上涨0.4%，而9月份为环比上涨0.6%。经济学家原本预期涨幅为0.3%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心CPI环比保持在0.3%，高于预期的0.2%。
As per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI ticked up 0.4% M/M in October after a 0.6% rise in September. Economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, remained steady at 0.3% M/M, coming in higher than the anticipated 0.2% figure.
由于2025年10月美国政府停摆，CPI数据中未公布同比（Y/Y）数字。
There were no Y/Y figures published in the CPI data on account of a U.S. government shutdown in October 2025.
CPI公布的时间恰好在一份大幅非农就业报告之后。强劲的劳动力市场与持续的通胀共同为货币政策收紧奠定了基础，当前的问题是下个月加息幅度将会多大。
The CPI also comes just days after a blockbuster nonfarm payrolls report. The combination of a strong labor market and persistent inflation sets the stage for monetary policy tightening, with the question now being just how big the rate hike will be next month.
虽然市场普遍预期加息25个基点，但根据CME FedWatch工具显示，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）实施50个基点加息的概率已从此前的零升至接近11%。
While a 25 basis point increase is widely anticipated, the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivering a 50 basis point rate hike has ticked up to nearly 11% from no odds before the CPI data, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
沃勒此前在伦敦的一场活动中表示，即使10月份通胀有所改善，他也支持12月加息25个基点；如果物价压力仍然强劲，则应考虑更大幅度的50个基点加息。
Waller earlier at an event in London said he would support a 25bps rate hike in December even if October inflation improves, and that a larger 50 bps move should be considered if price pressures stay strong.
接下来市场将关注本周晚些时候公布的生产者价格指数（PPI），随后是本月晚些时候公布的美联储偏好的通胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数。
Focus will now turn to the producer price index (PPI) later this week, followed by the latest reading on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge - the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index later this month.
CPI数据和沃勒的讲话发布后，华尔街低开，标普500指数最新下跌0.7%。对利率敏感的资产出现大幅波动，美国国债收益率飙升，债券遭抛售，美元走强。2年期收益率跳升20.1个基点至4.748%，美元指数上涨0.7%。
Wall Street opened lower after the CPI and Waller’s remarks, with the benchmark S&P 500 last down 0.7%. Interest-rate sensitive assets saw big reactions, with U.S. Treasury yields soaring as bonds were dumped and the dollar strengthening. The 2-year yield jumped 20.1 basis points to 4.748%, while the U.S. dollar index advanced 0.7%.
以下是一些跟踪标普500指数的热门交易所交易基金：SPDR标普500 ETF信托、先锋标普500 ETF和iShares核心标普500 ETF。以下是对CPI数据的各种反应：查尔斯·施瓦布金融研究中心宏观研究与策略主管凯文·戈登：“10月CPI在总体和核心两个层面均令人失望，燃料价格上涨的影响清晰显现。
Here are some popular exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, and iShares Core S&P 500 ETF. See below for various reactions to the CPI data: Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research: “October CPI disappointed at both the headline and core levels, with clear impacts showing up from the increase in fuel prices.
通胀报告发布前，克里斯·沃勒理事的讲话现在看来非常及时，因为他提到核心CPI环比上涨0.3%（10月确实如此），这至少是一个明确信号，表明应在12月加息，在更激进的情景下，还应考虑在下次会议上加息50个基点。
Governor Chris Waller’s speech before the inflation report now reads quite timely, given his mention of core CPI increasing by 0.3% M/M (which did in fact happen in October) as a clear sign to—at the very least—hike in December and—in a more aggressive scenario—consider a 50bps rate hike at the next meeting.
虽然50个基点加息的讨论可能还为时过早，但重点是，随着劳动力市场按多项指标继续走强（尤其是10月非农就业人数大幅超预期），通胀数据正朝着错误的方向发展。我们将等待本周晚些时候PPI带来的PCE信号，但目前，数据正在积累，支持即将加息。”潘泰宏观经济首席美国经济学家塞缪尔·汤姆斯：“这份美国CPI报告没有任何亮点……在沃勒讲话之后，12月加息50个基点现在显然正在考虑之中，（姑且这么说）我认为大多数FOMC成员将坚持更为渐进的做法。”
While it’s likely early days for a 50bps rate hike discussion, the point is that inflation data are trending in the wrong direction as the labor market continues to strengthen by several metrics (most notably, the significant beat for October payrolls). We will wait for PCE signals that come from PPI later this week, but at this point, the data are stacking in favor of a coming hike.”Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics: “There's no silver lining to this U.S. CPI report…Following Waller's speech, a 50bp hike will now clearly be under consideration in December, though (for what it's worth) I think most FOMC members will stick to a more gradual approach.”
密歇根大学公共政策与经济学教授贾斯汀·沃尔弗斯：“ugh. 最新的通胀数据刚刚公布，通胀依然居高不下，且高于大多数人的预期。人们希望通胀开始回归正常，但目前这只是一种希望，而非现实。
Justin Wolfers, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan: “Ugh. Latest inflation numbers just came out, and it's still running hot, and hotter than most expected. One hopes inflation starts returning to normal, but that's a hope right now, not a reality.
今天的数据是CPI通胀。美联储关注的是PCE通胀。而核心PCE通胀实际上比核心CPI通胀略高一些。”
Today's numbers are CPI inflation. The Fed targets PCE inflation. And core PCE inflation is actually running a bit hotter than core CPI.”
Northlight资产管理公司首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利表示：“鉴于通胀高于理想水平，美联储在12月加息的可能性现在更大了，尽管有人呼吁将联邦基金目标利率上调0.5%，但我们预计他们下个月只会加息0.25%。
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management: “Given the higher-than-desired inflation, it is even more likely now that the Fed will raise rates in December and although some are calling for a 0.5% increase in the Fed Funds target rate, we expect that they will only raise rates by 0.25% next month.
然而，新的问题是，美联储是否会在1月份立即再次加息0.25%——这在今天之前是出乎意料的——还是会不紧不慢地明年逐步加息（例如，在2027年的两次加息之间跳过一两次会议）。
However, the new question is whether or not the Fed will follow that up immediately with a second 0.25% rate hike in January – which would have been unexpected before today – or whether they will take their time and raise rates for slowly next year (e.g. skip one or two meetings between rate hikes in 2027).
所有这些对市场都很重要，因为更耐心的美联储会让股市多头更容易应对，而更激进的美联储明年可能会成为市场难以克服的巨大逆风。”布鲁金斯学会经济研究高级研究员罗宾·布鲁克斯表示：“这份CPI报告的所有细节都令人沮丧，但10月也是今年第二次大规模油价冲击的高峰，这显然会渗透到核心CPI通胀中。因此，今天的CPI读数比平时更具滞后性。”
All of this matters for markets, because a more patient Fed would be easier for stock bulls to navigate, while a more aggressive Fed could prove to be too big of a headwind for the market to overcome next year.”Robin Brooks, senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution: “All the details of this CPI report are discouraging, but October was also the peak of the second big oil price shock this year and that's obviously going to bleed into core CPI inflation. So today's CPI reading is more backward-looking than normal.”
LPL金融首席经济学家杰弗里·罗奇表示：“当前的通胀压力并非都应归咎于中东战争，尽管其中一些可能是供应限制的结果。相反，今天的部分通胀是由需求驱动的。美联储会将此考虑在内，并可能在12月加息以抑制通胀的需求端。一个令人鼓舞的迹象是，过去10个月租金通胀一直保持在2.7%至2.9%之间。”欧洲太平洋资产管理公司首席经济学家兼全球策略师彼得·希夫：“消费者物价指数（CPI）2026年可能上涨5%，2027年可能上涨超过7%，高于拜登执政期间任何一年。美联储计划的加息为时过晚、力度过小，无法阻止这一局面。联邦基金利率现在必须至少上调200个基点，才有可能阻止这趟列车。”
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial: “Not all current inflation pressures should be attributed to the war in the Middle East, although some are likely the result of supply constraints. Rather, part of today’s inflation is demand-driven. The Fed will take this into account and will likely raise rates in December to cool the demand side of inflation. One encouraging sign is that rent inflation has remained between 2.7% and 2.9% for the past 10 months.”Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management: “The CPI will likely rise 5% in 2026 and by more than 7% in 2027, higher than any calendar year under Biden. The Fed's planned rate hikes are too little, too late to prevent this. The federal funds rate must be raised by at least 200 basis points now to possibly stop this train.”