伦敦11月10日电——美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒于周二表示，即使政府数据显示上个月通胀有所降温，美联储下个月也应该提高短期借贷成本；如果通胀形势恶化，美联储则应考虑更大幅度的50个基点加息。
LONDON, Nov 10 - The Federal Reserve ought to raise short-term borrowing costs next month even if government data shows inflation cooled last month, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday, and should consider an upsized half-point rate hike if the inflation picture worsens.
沃勒在为伦敦演讲准备的讲稿中表示：“虽然我希望看到通胀较9月有所改善，但即便如此，我也仍将支持联邦公开市场委员会在12月会议上将政策利率提高25个基点。”他指的是预计于美国东部时间上午8点30分（格林尼治标准时间13点30分）公布的10月美国消费者价格指数。
"While I am hoping for an improvement over September, even if this occurs, I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC’s policy rate at our December meeting," Waller said in remarks prepared for delivery in London, referring to October reading of the US consumer price index, expected at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT).
路透社调查的经济学家表示，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，上个月的核心CPI较9月可能温和上涨了0.2%。
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, likely increased a moderate 0.2% last month from September, economists polled by Reuters say.
沃勒表示，如果核心消费价格较9月上涨0.3%或更多，“可能需要采取更有力的政策行动。在这种情况下，我认为在12月的会议上应该考虑将政策利率提高50个基点。”他指出，鉴于通胀过高且似乎正在扩大，任何低于这一幅度的举措都有损美联储抗击通胀的信誉。
If core consumer prices rise 0.3% or more from September, "a stronger policy move may be needed," Waller said. "In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting." Anything less, he said, risks hurting the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility, given inflation that’s too high and appears to be broadening out.
沃勒对美联储可能需要采取的行动作出了坦率评估，这与美联储主席凯文·沃什拒绝给出任何利率路径指引的态度形成了鲜明对比。沃勒表示，他支持央行上个月暂停加息的决定，部分原因是政策制定者此前几乎已经承诺要进一步收紧政策。
Waller, whose unvarnished assessments of what the Fed may need to do offer a sharp contrast with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s resistance to giving any rate-path guidance whatsoever, said he backed the central bank’s decision last month to skip a rate hike in part because policymakers had all but promised to deliver further policy tightening.
金融市场反映了这些预期。截至周一收盘，结算至美联储政策利率的期货价格显示，美联储在12月8日至9日的会议上加息至4.00%-4.25%的新目标区间的概率约为85%，且在最早3月份再次加息的概率超过一半。
Financial markets reflect those expectations, with futures that settle to the Fed’s policy rate as of Monday’s close pricing in about an 85% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s December 8-9 meeting to a new target range of 4.00%-4.25%, and a better-than-even chance of another rate hike as soon as in March.
沃勒说：“然而，如果不实施加息，市场将降低对加息的预期，利率将立即下降，这将以一种不希望看到的方式放松货币政策。因此，虽然加息的具体时间并不重要，但确保在合理时间内落实承诺的加息至关重要。”沃勒没有提到上周的中期选举，该选举使民主党在参议院和众议院均获得了多数席位，并选出了多位以承诺控制数据中心扩张为竞选纲领的民主党州长。
"If, however, the hikes are not carried out, markets will reduce expectations of rate hikes and rates will immediately fall, which would loosen monetary policy in an undesirable way," Waller said. "So, while the precise timing of the hikes doesn’t matter, ensuring that the promised hikes are implemented in a reasonable period of time does." Waller did not mention last week’s midterms, which gave Democrats majorities in both the Senate and the House and elected a number of Democratic governors who ran on promises of reining in data-center expansion.
随着投资者重新定价对人工智能的预期，政治控制权的更迭引发了股市和债市的波动。人工智能的需求推动了上季度企业投资实现两位数增长，同时股市的繁荣提振了消费者支出。美国上季度GDP按年率计算增长了3.4%。
The change in political control has driven stock and bond market volatility as investors reprice expectations for artificial intelligence, demand for which drove a double-digit increase in business investment last quarter even as a booming stock market bolstered consumer spending. US GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate last quarter.
沃勒说：“我预计当前季度GDP增长将略有回落，因为消费者支出放缓至我认为更符合家庭收入和财富的水平，但产出将继续以稳健的速度增长。”
"I expect GDP growth is backing off a bit in the current quarter, as consumer spending slows to levels that I think are more consistent with household income and wealth, but output will continue to grow at a solid pace," Waller said.
他说，劳动力市场虽然可能不像4.1%的失业率所暗示的那样健康和充满活力，但依然“稳健”，劳动力供需大致平衡。相比之下，通胀率过高，且是“我关注的焦点”，沃勒说。
The labor market, while perhaps not as healthy and dynamic as a 4.1% unemployment rate might suggest, is nevertheless "solid," he said, with worker demand and supply in rough balance. Inflation, by contrast, is too high and "the focus of my attention," Waller said.
美联储的目标是将个人消费支出指数衡量的通胀率维持在同比2%的水平，但9月份的数据为3.7%，美联储政策制定者用来衡量潜在趋势的核心PCE通胀率较上年同期上升了3.1%。
The Fed targets 2% year-over-year inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, but September’s reading was 3.7%, and core PCE inflation, which Fed policymakers use to gauge the underlying trend, rose 3.1% from a year earlier.
沃勒说，在9月份，核心PCE服务通胀中超过70%的成分涨幅达到了3%或更高。n他说：“今天晚些时候，我将观察这种高通胀的广度是否仍在持续，包括与人工智能建设相关的高科技产品价格是否继续以近几个月非常高的速度上涨。”他还表示，他将观察较高的能源价格是否正在传导至商品和服务。
More than 70% of the components of core PCE services inflation rose 3% or more in September, Waller said. "Later today, I will be looking to see whether this breadth of elevated inflation continues, including whether high-tech goods prices related to the AI buildout continue to rise at the very high rate of recent months," he said. He will also be looking at whether higher energy prices are passing through to goods and services, he said.
他说，美联储工作人员最近的分析表明，生产者价格可能会继续上涨，而且能源冲击现在可能会对价格产生比疫情前时期更持久的向上推力。
Recent Fed staff analyses suggest that producer prices could continue to rise and that energy shocks may now deliver a more persistent push upward to prices than they did in the pre-pandemic period, he said.
沃勒说：“他们的分析表明，特别是在油价保持高位的情况下，这些压力可能会比以前想象的更大，并持续到2027年。”
"Their analysis suggests that, especially if oil prices were to remain elevated, these pressures could be larger than previously though and persist well into 2027," Waller said.