永续期货暗示Anthropic将大涨 永续期货准确预测了SpaceX的定价 首次公开募股正将这一新兴资产类别推向聚光灯下 Anthropic历史性首次公开募股的消息为科技投资者带来了一波喘息之机。永续期货市场的反应可能带来更多喘息。
Perpetual futures are implying a pop for Anthropic Perpetual futures accurately predicted SpaceX pricing The initial public offering are shining a light on this emerging asset class News of Anthropic's historic initial public offering provided a wave of relief for tech investors. The response in the perpetual futures market might provide even more relief.
随着Anthropic本月准备通过首次公开募股筹集资金，离岸市场的交易员们正在大举押注，这家人工智能巨头首日上市将出现大幅上涨。
As Anthropic prepares to raise money in its initial public offering this month, traders in offshore markets are making large bets that there will be a big pop on the AI giant's debut.
试图猜测首日首次公开募股的反应几乎是不可能的，但市场中一个新兴且快速增长的领域可能会提供一些线索。
Trying to guess an initial first day IPO reaction is nearly impossible, but a new and fast-growing corner of the markets might offer some clues.
首次公开募股前永续合约，旨在追踪私营公司股价的合约，在Hyperliquid、Coinbase、Binance和OKX等去中心化加密货币交易所交易，仅举几例。目前Hyperliquid上的Anthropic合约暗示股价为98美元，市值约为1.7万亿美元，比公司更新后的S-1文件中宣布的70至78美元区间高出30%以上。尽管美国投资者目前无法在该交易所交易，但根据交易所数据，过去24小时内，Hyperliquid上的两个Anthropic追踪合约交易量约为2.5亿美元。
Pre-IPO perpetuals, contracts that aim to track the price of private companies, trade on decentralized crypto exchanges like Hyperliquid, Coinbase, Binance and OKX to name a few. The current Hyperliquid Anthropic contract implies a stock price of $98 and its market cap at roughly $1.7 trillion, more than 30% higher than the $70-$78 range announced in the company's updated S1 While trading on the exchange is not currently available to American investors, about $250 million of volume traded across Hyperliquid's two Anthropic trackers in the past 24 hours, according to the exchange.
Hyperliquid的首次公开募股前Anthropic永续合约两周前开始交易，价格为138美元，随后在科技股上周抛售前，在110至120美元的大约十美元区间内波动，该合约一度跌至94美元以下。
Hyperliquid's pre-IPO Anthropic perp began trading two weeks ago at $138 before settling into a roughly ten-dollar range between $110 and $120 prior to last week's selloff in tech stocks, as the contract slipped below $94 at one point.
这一新兴资产类别的支持者认为，永续合约的定价证明，投行在首次公开募股前故意低估股权，以确保二级市场出现“首日大涨”。以SpaceX为例，这一论点站得住脚：SpaceX的首次公开募股前永续合约曾以溢价交易，并在首次公开募股时与股票价格趋同，这一切发生在股票上市后立即出现的三天涨幅高达40%的反弹之前。
To proponents of this new asset class, the pricing of the perps is evidence that bankers intentionally undersell equity ahead of IPOs to ensure a post-market "pop." Looking at SpaceX, the argument rings true: pre-IPO perps on SpaceX traded at a premium and converged with equity prices at the IPO, all before shares went on a three-day rally of as much as 40% in the immediate aftermath of the listing.
关于Anthropic即将举行路演的消息可能正在给竞争对手OpenAI带来压力。根据Hyperliquid交易数据，追踪OpenAI市值的合约在过去24小时内交易量达28亿美元，价格下跌7%，至1.27万亿美元。
News of Anthropic's upcoming roadshow may be weighing on competitor OpenAI. Perps tracking OpenAI's market cap dropped 7% to $1.27 trillion, according to Hyperliquid trading on a contract trading $2.8 billion in volume over the past 24 hours.
Hyperliquid Strategies（PURR）股票周二下跌4%。该公司是一家公开交易的国库公司，投资于为交易所提供动力的HYPE代币。该股今年以来上涨150%。
Shares of Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR), the publicly-traded Treasury company investing in the HYPE tokens that power the exchange fell 4% Tuesday. The stock is up 150% on the year.