美国国债大幅下跌，推动收益率急剧上升。此前公布的通货膨胀数据高于预期，加上美联储一位关键官员的讲话，加剧了市场对央行将需要更大幅度加息以抑制通胀的押注。
US Treasuries slumped, pushing yields sharply higher, after hotter-than-expected inflation data and comments from a key Federal Reserve official fueled bets that the central bank would need to deliver more aggressive interest rate hikes to cool inflation.
密切跟踪美联储政策预期的两年期美国国债收益率周二飙升17个基点。这是两年期收益率自2025年4月以来的最大单日涨幅，当时唐纳德·特朗普总统公布关税措施，震动了金融市场。
The two-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks expectations for Fed policy, surged 17 basis points on Tuesday. The two-year yield saw its biggest single-day jump since April 2025, when President Donald Trump’s unveiling of tariffs rocked financial markets.
债券市场这个动荡的交易日始于美联储理事克里斯·沃勒在伦敦发表讲话时表示，如果核心通胀率——剔除食品和能源等波动较大类别的指标——继续保持在0.3%或更高水平，他将考虑在美联储12月政策会议上支持加息50个基点（半个百分点）的大幅举措。
The rocky day for bonds started after Fed Governor Chris Waller said during remarks in London that he would consider backing a jumbo rate hike of 50 basis points (a half point) at the US central bank’s December policy meeting if core inflation – a measure that strips out the volatile categories of food and energy – continues to come in at 0.3% or higher.
“那么，可能需要更有力的政策行动，”他说。“只加息25个基点（四分之一个百分点）将使我们面临信誉风险，而这是我不愿承担的风险。”沃勒表示，他希望观察人工智能建设如何影响高科技商品的价格，以及今年能源价格的上涨是否继续加大通胀压力。近几日油价有所下跌，但仍远高于伊朗战争前的水平。
“Then, a stronger policy move may be needed,” he said. “Hiking only 25 basis points [a quarter point] would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.”Waller said he wants to monitor how the AI buildout is impacting prices of high-tech goods, and if the rise in energy prices this year is continuing to add to inflationary pressures. Oil prices have dropped in recent days, but remain well-above their pre-Iran war levels.
周二公布的消费者价格数据显示，核心通胀环比上涨0.3%，高于经济学家预期的0.2%涨幅。数据公布后，收益率大幅上升。
Consumer price data released Tuesday showed core inflation rose 0.3% from a month earlier, more than the 0.2% increase economists had expected. Yields surged higher after the data release.
关键的10年期美国国债收益率跃升10个基点，至4.98%，并在交易中一度升破5%。10年期收益率影响整个经济的借贷成本，尤其是抵押贷款利率。
The key 10-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 4.98% and briefly rose above 5% during trading. The 10-year yield influences the cost of borrowing across the economy, most notably mortgage rates.
市场策略师彼得·布克瓦尔表示，周二10年期国债的拍卖需求疲软，进一步加大了债券的压力。
An auction of 10-year notes on Tuesday saw soft demand, according to market strategist Peter Boockvar, adding to pressure on bonds.
与此同时，达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根周二在休斯顿的讲话中表示，美联储需要再加息至少两次，每次25个基点。
Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said in remarks in Houston on Tuesday that the Fed needs to deliver at least two additional quarter-point rate increases.
“加息的具体节奏可能取决于近期的经济和金融环境，”洛根说。“今年冬天美联储加息的速度可能比今年秋天迄今为止更快。”根据CME“美联储观察”工具，交易员目前预计美联储12月加息25个基点的概率为91%，加息50个基点的概率为9%。就在一周前，交易员预计加息25个基点的概率为77%，维持利率不变的概率为23%。
“The exact pace of increases could depend on the near-term economic and financial environment,” Logan said. “It may be possible to move more rapidly this winter than the [Fed] has moved so far this fall.”Traders are now pricing in a 91% chance of a quarter-point rate hike and a 9% chance of a half-point rate hike in December, according to CME FedWatch. Just one week ago, traders were pricing in a 77% chance of a quarter-point hike and a 23% chance of the Fed holding rates steady.
“10月的经济数据概况以及美联储官员讲话的鹰派转向，促使市场重新评估美联储是否有必要加快政策收紧步伐，”BMO资本市场美国利率策略师韦尔·哈特曼在报告中写道。
“October’s economic data profile and a hawkish shift in Fed-speak have prompted the market to reassess whether a faster pace of Fed policy tightening may be warranted,” Vail Hartman, US rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note.
桑坦德银行首席美国经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利在报告中表示，他仍然确信美联储将在12月加息25个基点，并补充说，沃勒考虑加息50个基点可能不代表美联储官员的共识观点。
Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander, said in a note that he remains convinced the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points in December, adding that Waller’s consideration of 50 basis points likely doesn’t represent the consensus view among Fed officials.
“话虽如此，我也要指出，如果未来几个月通胀数据没有显示出改善迹象，那么我预期的2027年不再进一步收紧政策的观点将面临风险，”斯坦利写道。
“Having said that, I would also note that if the inflation data do not show signs of improvement in the coming months, then my expectation of no further tightening in 2027 is in jeopardy,” Stanley wrote.
周二股市小幅收跌。标普500指数下跌0.4%，纳斯达克指数微跌0.74%。英伟达股价下跌5.47%，延续了近期的疲软走势，市场担心董事会正在调查关于首席执行官黄仁勋成为“外国情报机构目标”的报道。英伟达股价收于3月30日以来的最低水平。
Stocks closed slightly lower Tuesday. The S&P 500 was down 0.4% and the Nasdaq ticked down by 0.74%. Nvidia shares fell 5.47%, extending a recent bout of weakness over concerns about the board’s investigation into reports CEO Jensen Huang was the “target of a foreign intelligence effort.”Nvidia shares closed at their lowest level since March 30.