美国国债期货下跌，加息押注升温，投资者难获喘息。衍生品交易显示，美国国债的抛售潮将持续下去，因为高于预期的通胀数据巩固了美联储将进一步激进加息的前景。
Falling US Bond Futures Offer No Relief as Fed Hike Bets Grow Derivatives trading suggests a retreat in US Treasuries is set to continue as faster-than-expected inflation data cemented the prospects for more aggressive interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
由于周三美国国债现货市场因退伍军人节休市，10年期国债期货合约预示，市场重新开盘后收益率将跃升至5%以上。基准收益率周二飙升11个基点，至4.99%，因通胀数据和美联储官员的讲话加剧了人们对通胀正变得根深蒂固的担忧。
By James Hirai and Alice Atkins With cash trading in US government bonds closed Wednesday for Veterans’ Day, futures contracts on 10-year notes imply a jump in yields above 5% when the market reopens. The benchmark yield surged 11 basis points to 4.99% on Tuesday as the inflation print and comments from Fed officials stoked fears inflation is becoming entrenched.
瑞银欧洲、中东和非洲资产管理主管Sonja Laud在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“我们正意识到，通胀比市场预期的要顽固得多。现在突然间，我们不得不将12月加息计入价格，市场正在争论是加息25个基点还是50个基点。”随着避险需求涌向债券的交易员在行情反转中陷入不安。SOFR期货周三走低。这强化了市场对下月加息25个基点的完全定价，加息50个基点的几率约为10%。预计到明年年中将加息三次。
“We are realizing inflation is a lot stickier than the market had anticipated,” said Sonja Laud, head of asset management for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at UBS, in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Now all of a sudden we have to price in a December hike and the market is debating whether it’s 25 basis points or 50 basis points.”Traders Who Rushed to Bonds as Haven Get Rattled in Reversal SOFR futures — which allow investors to wager on or hedge against Fed interest-rate changes — were trading lower on Wednesday. That reinforced bets fully pricing a quarter-point rate increase next month, with odds of a 50 basis point hike at around 10%. Three rate increases are expected by the middle of next year.
芝加哥联邦储备银行行长Austan Goolsbee表示，10月通胀报告“近乎令人不安”。他今年没有利率投票权。拥有投票权的决策者Anna Paulson则警告称，通胀高企并非由暂时性因素推动。在美联储12月9日下一次利率决定之前，有很多因素可能改变前景。MUFG表示，一份关键的就业报告即将发布，而且油价下跌能否持续还远不明朗。
The October inflation report is “borderline disturbing” according to Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, who doesn’t vote on rates this year. Fellow policymaker Anna Paulson, who can vote, warned that elevated inflation isn’t being driven by temporary factors Half-Point Bets There’s plenty that could change the outlook before the next Fed rates decision on Dec. 9. A key payrolls report is due and it’s far from clear whether a slump in oil prices will endure, according to MUFG.
三菱日联金融集团欧洲、中东和非洲地区全球市场研究主管德里克·哈尔彭尼表示，如果对加息半个百分点的预期升温，美元将从中受益。
If expectations for a half-point hike increase, the US currency would stand to benefit, said Derek Halpenny, head of research for global markets EMEA at MUFG.
他说：“这将改变市场目前对各主要央行政策的均衡预期，并使加息预期向有利于美元的方向大幅倾斜。这可能会促使欧元兑美元进一步走低，使汇率跌破1.1000关口成为可能。”
“It would alter the current balanced expectations in the markets across key central banks and shift rate hike expectations much more in favor of the dollar,” he said. “That would likely prompt a further lurch lower in euro-dollar and bring levels below the 1.1000-level into play.”