美国国债收益率周四早盘下跌,此前美联储在周三的十月会议上维持利率不变。投资者目前正密切关注美联储关于通胀的表态,以及其是否将在十二月再次加息。
US Treasury yields fell on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its October meeting on Wednesday. Investors are now watching the Fed's comments on inflation and whether it will raise interest rates again in December.
美国东部时间周四上午6点,10年期美国国债收益率下跌5个基点,报4.995%。2年期国债收益率也下跌5个基点,报4.683%。据CNBC报道,30年期国债收益率下跌3个基点,报5.329%。什么是基点?
At 6 am ET on Thursday, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell by 5 basis points to 4.995%. The 2-year Treasury yield also fell by 5 basis points to 4.683%. The 30-year Treasury yield dropped by 3 basis points to 5.329%, according to CNBC. What is a basis point?
一个基点等于0.01个百分点。国债收益率与债券价格通常呈反向变动。这意味着收益率下跌时债券价格上涨;收益率上升时,债券价格通常下跌。美联储维持美国利率稳定美联储周三投票决定将其关键隔夜利率维持在3.75%至4%的区间。然而,根据其会后声明,央行表示通胀依然居高不下,显示决策者仍对物价上涨存有担忧。
One basis point is equal to 0.01 percentage points. Treasury yields and bond prices usually move in opposite directions. This means bond prices rise when yields fall. When yields rise, bond prices usually fall. Fed holds US interest rates steady The Federal Reserve voted on Wednesday to keep its key overnight interest rate in the range of 3.75% to 4%. However, the central bank said inflation remained high, showing that policymakers still have concerns about rising prices, according to its post-meeting statement.
据CNBC报道的数据,美国9月年度通胀率达到3.7%。这高于美联储2%的长期通胀目标。美联储正在监测通胀数据,以决定其当前的利率政策是否足以将物价涨幅控制住。
The annual US inflation rate reached 3.7% in September. This was higher than the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target of 2%, according to data reported by CNBC. The Fed is monitoring inflation data to decide whether its current interest rate policy is enough to bring price increases under control.
微软股价涨4% 谷歌母公司Alphabet股价暴跌10% 因搜索业务销售疲软及AI支出担忧美联储称需更多数据以控制通胀美联储表示,在决定采取何种利率行动之前,需要更多信息。央行在周三的声明中说:“更多信息的积累将有助于委员会确定适当的政策立场,以确保通胀及时回归委员会2%的目标。”
Microsoft stock rises 4% as Alphabet shares plunge 10% on weak Google search sales and AI spending concerns Fed says more data needed to control inflationThe Federal Reserve said it needed more information before deciding what action to take on interest rates. “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal,” the central bank said in its statement on Wednesday.
美联储主席凯文·沃什在会后对记者表示,决策者尚未确定利率的固定路径。
Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said policymakers had not decided on a fixed path for interest rates.
据CNBC报道,他说,如果美联储在货币政策上已做出坚定决定,就会明确宣布其计划。市场预期美联储12月加息投资者仍预期美联储将在12月会议上加息。根据芝商所(CME Group)的“美联储观察”工具,市场定价显示12月加息25个基点(即0.25个百分点)的概率为83.6%。油价因美伊重启和谈缓解供应担忧而下跌,中东局势紧张投资者预见未来加息路径放缓Thornburg Investment Management投资组合经理Ali Hassan表示,市场似乎认为美联储最新言论指向较为温和的利率前景,而非预示新的通胀恐慌。
He said the Fed would have clearly announced its plans if it had reached a firm decision on monetary policy, according to CNBC. Markets expect Fed rate hike in DecemberInvestors are still expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its December meeting. Markets are pricing in an 83.6% chance of a quarter-percentage-point, or 0.25 percentage-point, rate hike in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Oil prices fall as renewed US-Iran peace talks ease supply concerns amid Middle East tensionsInvestors see softer path for future rate hikesAli Hassan, a portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management, said markets appeared to view the Fed's latest comments as pointing towards a softer interest rate outlook rather than signalling a fresh inflation scare.
据CNBC报道,根据周三发布的一份报告,他说投资者已降低对更远期加息的预期。Hassan称,市场仍预期12月加息,但对美联储此后是否会再次加息不那么确定。这表明投资者正试图在再次加息的可能性与央行日后可能采取较不激进做法的可能性之间寻求平衡。国债收益率等待美联储新信号Hassan表示,周五将很重要,因为美联储官员在政策会议前后受限的发言期将结束。
He said investors had reduced their expectations for rate hikes further into the future, according to a note published on Wednesday, according to CNBC. Hassan said markets still expected a rate hike in December but were less certain about whether the Fed would raise rates again after that. This suggests investors are trying to balance the possibility of another rate increase against the chance that the central bank may take a less aggressive approach later. Treasury yields await fresh Fed signalsHassan said Friday would be important because the period during which Fed officials are restricted from speaking around the policy meeting would end.
据CNBC报道,他说,如果决策者发出可能需要进一步加息的信号,期限较短端的国债收益率可能再次上升,扭转近期的跌势。随着投资者评估下一次利率决定,国债收益率可能对即将公布的经济数据和美联储官员言论保持敏感。市场的主要问题是美联储是否将在12月加息,以及鉴于通胀仍高于2%目标,是否会进一步加息。
If policymakers signal that more rate hikes could be needed, Treasury yields at the shorter end of the maturity range could rise again, reversing some of their recent decline, he said, according to CNBC. Treasury yields are likely to remain sensitive to incoming economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials as investors assess the next interest rate decision. The main question for markets is whether the Fed will raise rates in December and whether further increases will follow, given that inflation remains above its 2% target.