美联储维持利率不变并强化了交易员对12月恢复紧缩的预期，美债小幅下跌。
Treasuries held small losses after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and reinforced traders’ expectations that tightening will resume in December.
周三利率决议公布后，收益率走高，对美联储政策路径更敏感的两年期美债收益率上涨约3个基点至4.76%。交易员定价显示，决策者12月下次会议加息25个基点的概率约为90%。
The declines on Wednesday sent yields higher after the rate decision, with those on two year notes — which are more sensitive to the Fed’s policy path — up about three basis points to 4.76%. Traders were pricing in about a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate increase when policymakers next meet in December.
由主席凯文·沃什领导的美联储官员将美国借贷成本维持在3.75%-4%区间，但有两名决策者对该决定投了反对票。他们在9月时隔三年首次加息。投资者将关注沃什在华盛顿时间下午2:30的新闻发布会，以寻找央行推理和前景的任何暗示，尽管他反对向市场提供前瞻指引。
Fed officials led by Chairman Kevin Warsh left US borrowing costs at 3.75%-4%, though two policymakers dissented from that decision. They raised rates in September for the first time in three years. Investors will monitor Warsh’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. in Washington for any hints on the central bank’s reasoning and outlook, even though he’s opposed offering guidance to markets.
在10月会议前夕，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯、副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和理事克里斯托弗·沃勒等多位美联储官员的言论促使交易员缩减了对本月加息的押注。同一时期，曾将美债收益率推至数十年高位的抛售开始停滞，因人工智能交易引发的担忧促使投资者寻求避险资产。
In the lead-up to the October meeting, remarks from several Fed officials — New York Fed President John Williams, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor Christopher Waller — had prompted traders to pull back on their wagers for a hike this month. Around the same time, a selloff that had sent US Treasury yields to multidecade highs began to stall as jitters around the artificial intelligence trade sent investors in search of havens.
彭博美债市场回报指数在截至周二收盘的10月期间上涨1.9%，有望录得自2025年初以来的最佳月度表现。
A Bloomberg index of the Treasury market’s returns is up 1.9% in October through Tuesday’s close, on course for its best monthly performance since early 2025.
