知情人士称，中国正就可能对国债利息收入征税向市场参与者征询意见，此举有可能提振一直徘徊在历史低位附近的收益率。
China is sounding out market participants on a possible tax on interest income from government bonds, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that could potentially offer a lift to yields that have been hovering near record lows.
知情人士称，中国人民银行上月对包括多家贷款机构在内的机构进行了一项调查，询问对其持有的中央和地方政府债券利息收入征收25%的税，将如何影响其对这类证券的投资意愿。这些人士要求不具名，因为该事尚未公开。根据知情人士的说法，银行被要求表明，其需求是否会下降不足10%、20%、30%，还是超过30%。
The People’s Bank of China, in a survey last month that included a number of lenders, asked how a 25% tax on interest income from their central and local government bond holdings would affect their appetite for such securities, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter isn’t public. The banks were asked to indicate whether their demand would decline by less than 10%, 20%, 30%, or more than 30%, according to the people.
知情人士补充称，从调查中尚不清楚是否会征收这项税，以及——如果征收——何时实施。目前，中国对企业和个人持有者的这类证券利息收入免税。中国人民银行和财政部未回复传真置评请求。
It’s unclear from the survey whether a levy will be introduced or — if it is — how soon, the people added. Currently, China exempts enterprises and individual holders from interest income tax on these securities. The PBOC and Ministry of Finance didn’t respond to faxed requests for comment.
取消免税将符合政府在财政收入疲软之际加强征税的努力。这也将提升中国债券收益率，因为投资者将寻求更高回报以弥补税收支出。受国内经济增长疲软和股市低迷的担忧影响，基准10年期国债收益率今年一直在下滑。对利息征税的想法在市场上引发了争论。
Removing the exemptions would fit with the government’s efforts to strengthen tax collection at a time when revenue is weak. It would also elevate Chinese bond yields as investors seek higher returns to compensate for the tax payments. Benchmark 10-year rates have been sliding this year amid angst over subdued domestic economic growth and a slump in the stock market. The idea of a tax on interest has stirred debate in the market.
当地券商华泰证券的一项测算显示，如果征收25%的税费并完全体现在定价中，这意味着10年期国债收益率需要上升52个基点，以保持相同的税后回报。华泰证券预计，新发行10年期国债收益率的实际上升幅度会更小，约为10到20个基点。
If a 25% levy were imposed and became fully reflected in pricing, that would imply a 52 basis-point increase in 10-year government bond yields to preserve the same after-tax return, according to a tally by local broker Huatai Securities. Huatai expects the actual increase in yields on newly issued 10-year government bonds to be smaller, at around 10 to 20 basis points.
国海证券认为，仅对地方政府债券征税可能会产生类似的收益率上升——可能将地方债10年期收益率从1.68%推升至约2.25%，不过实际调整幅度可能会小得多。
Guohai Securities reckons that imposing a tax just on local government bonds could produce a similar increase in yields — potentially pushing the 10-year yield on local notes to about 2.25% from 1.68%, though the actual adjustment would likely be considerably smaller.
中国的立场与世界其他主要经济体形成镜像，那些国家的决策者一直面临着历史高位的收益率。中国人民银行过去曾在看到长期国债出现疯狂抢购时试图冷却市场。它一直警惕由杠杆押注推动的债券上涨所带来的金融稳定风险，以及投资者对经济前景的悲观情绪可能因低收益率而根深蒂固的风险。
China’s position is a mirror image of that of other major economies round the world, where policymakers have been confronting historically high yields. The PBOC in the past has tried to cool the market when it saw frenzied buying of long-dated government bonds. It’s been vigilant against financial stability risks arising from the bond rally fueled by leveraged bets, as well as the risk that investor pessimism over the economy’s prospects becomes entrenched because of low yields.
在经历了数月的上涨后，2024年收益率创下历史新低，央行对债券多头进行了口头反击，监管机构还调查了非法交易行为。
Following a months-long rally that pushed yields to all-time lows in 2024, the central bank mounted verbal pushback against bond bulls, while regulators investigated illegal trading behavior.
银行将特别暴露于任何针对债券利息收入的新征税，因为商业银行是中国约100万亿元（15万亿美元）中央和地方政府债券的最大持有者。根据财政部数据，两个市场中超过60%由银行持有。
Banks would be particularly exposed to any new levy on bond interest income, as commercial lenders are the biggest holders of China’s roughly 100 trillion yuan ($15 trillion) of central and local government bonds. More than 60% of both markets are held by banks, according to Ministry of Finance data.
改变主权债券的税务处理需要修改法律，而地方政府债券的税务处理则可以通过修改现有行政规则来完成。
Changing the tax treatment of sovereign bonds would require an amendment to the law, while that for local government bonds could be done through changes to existing administrative rules.
华泰证券估计，如果对所有在流通政府债券的利息征税，机构投资者将面临约4590亿元的额外年度税收。如果税收仅适用于新发行债券，第一年的金额大约只有十分之一，根据本月发布的一份报告。
Huatai estimated that institutional investors would face about 459 billion yuan in additional annual taxes if interest on all outstanding government bonds were taxed. The amount would be roughly one-tenth as large in the first year if the tax applied only to new issuance, according to a report released this month.
中国的企业债券已经要缴纳所得税。除个人以外的政府债券持有人也要缴纳增值税。
Corporate bonds in China are already subject to an income tax. Government bondholders, other than individuals, are also liable for a value-added tax.
政府债券利息目前免征企业所得税。取消这一优惠将使此类支付与企业收入处于同等地位，后者一般按25%征税，因为当局正在缩减税收优惠以弥补土地出让收入下滑。但这也有可能推高收益率，从而增加政府的融资成本——如果投资者抛售债券。
Interest on government bonds is currently exempted from corporate income tax. Ending the break would put such payments on par with corporate income, generally taxed at 25%, as authorities scale back tax incentives to compensate for sliding land-sale revenue. But it also risks raising the government’s funding costs by pushing yields higher — if investors dump bonds.