Investing.com——在10月通胀报告连续第三个月意外大幅上行后，高盛（Goldman Sachs）在其对2027年3月的预测中增加了第三次美联储加息25个基点的预期。
Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs added a third quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike to its forecast for March 2027, after an October inflation report that surprised sharply to the upside for a third straight month.
10月核心CPI上涨0.30%，高于经济学家预期。高盛估计，与去年政府停摆相关的残余季节性因素增加了5个基点。该报告显示多个类别出现上行，这些类别“似乎反映出的不仅仅是油价上涨的最直接影响”，美国首席经济学家戴维·梅里克（David Mericle）表示。
October core CPI rose 0.30%, above economists’ expectations, with Goldman estimating that residual seasonality tied to last year’s government shutdown added 5 basis points. The report showed upside across several categories that "appeared to reflect more than just the most direct effects of higher oil prices," chief U.S. economist David Mericle said.
高盛仍然预计12月将进行第二次25个基点的加息。随着3月进行第三次加息，联邦基金利率将达到4.25%至4.5%的峰值。
Goldman still expects a second 25-basis-point hike in December. With a third in March, the federal funds rate would peak at 4.25% to 4.5%.
梅里克表示，第三次加息最早可能在1月到来，因为美联储不必坚持其逢会必降（注：此处指隔次开会）的节奏。但这位经济学家认为3月“可能性稍大一些”，因为他预计11月和12月的通胀数据会更加温和，随后是高盛称之为“1月效应”的年初更大规模的价格上涨。梅里克指出，最近的数据可能会导致大多数美联储官员在12月的点阵图中发出第三次加息的信号，这只需要再有两名参与者提高其预测。
A third hike could come as early as January, Mericle said, since the Fed doesn’t have to stick to its every-other-meeting pace. But the economist sees March as "a bit more likely," because he expects softer November and December inflation data, followed by larger start-of-year price increases that Goldman calls the "January effect." Recent prints will probably lead most Fed officials to signal a third hike in the December dot plot, which would require only two more participants to raise their forecasts, Mericle noted.
他补充说，一份更坚挺的1月报告将使实施加息成为“阻力最小的路径”，即使届时能源冲击似乎已经结束。
A firmer January report would make delivering it "the path of least resistance," even if the energy shock appears over by then, he added.
美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）在周二早些时候、即该报告发布前表示，如果10月核心CPI达到0.3%左右或更高，就应该考虑在12月加息50个基点。“只加息25个基点会把我们的信誉置于危险之中，这个风险我可不想冒，”他说道。高盛仍预计加息25个基点，因为该行怀疑大多数投票委员是否会犹豫着直接跃升至50个基点。
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier Tuesday, before the report, that a 50-basis-point December hike should be considered if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. "Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take," he said. Goldman still expects 25 basis points, since it suspects most voters would hesitate to jump to 50.
梅里克表示，自大选以来，原油期货大幅下跌，这意味着能源冲击向消费者价格的大部分传导已经过去。随着关税、能源和人工智能相关的价格压力消退，他仍然坚信通胀将在2027年底前“大幅降低”。
Oil futures have fallen substantially since the elections, which Mericle said should mean most of the energy shock’s passthrough to consumer prices is behind. He remains confident inflation will be "meaningfully lower" by the end of 2027 as tariff, energy and AI-related price pressures fade.
高盛将最终终端利率预测维持在3.25%至3.5%，但现在预计降息将推迟一个季度开始，即在2027年12月，随后在2028年3月、6月和9月进行降息。
Goldman kept its eventual terminal rate forecast at 3.25% to 3.5% but now expects cuts to begin a quarter later, in December 2027, followed by cuts in March, June and September 2028.