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德意志银行:通胀数据高于预期,预计美联储将于2027年1月加息Deutsche Bank expects Fed rate hike in January 2027 after hot inflation data

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11月10日 - 德意志银行周二表示,预计美联储将在2027年1月再次加息25个基点,此前公布的10月通胀数据高于预期,提振了对借贷成本上升的押注。

Nov 10 - Deutsche Bank on Tuesday said it expects an additional 25-basis-point interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve in January 2027, after a hotter-than-expected October inflation reading boosted bets on higher borrowing costs.

德意志银行在一份报告中表示:“今天上午的CPI数据继续显示物价普遍上涨,强化了我们今年早些时候对价格压力持续存在的担忧。”

"This morning’s CPI data continued to show broad-based gains, reinforcing our concerns from earlier this year about the persistence of price pressures," Deutsche Bank said in a note.

该经纪机构此前预计美联储将在12月和3月加息。目前利率区间为3.75%至4%。

The brokerage previously expected the central bank to raise rates in December and March. The interest rate is now in the 3.75% to 4% range.

上月CPI上涨0.4%,高于路透社调查的经济学家估计的0.3%,原因是食品和住房成本上升。这使得美联储有望在下月加息。

The CPI increased 0.4% last month, above 0.3% estimated by economists polled by Reuters, pushed up by higher costs for food and accommodation. This left the Fed on course to raise interest rates next month.

根据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具,交易员预计12月加息的可能性接近99%。

Traders are pricing in an almost 99% chance of a hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

当天早些时候,美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示,即使10月通胀降温,美联储也应在下月至少加息25个基点。他表示,如果价格压力加速,政策制定者应考虑加息半个百分点。

Earlier in the day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank should raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points next month even if inflation cooled in October. If price pressures accelerated, policymakers should consider a half-percentage-point increase, he said.

德意志银行表示:“沃勒理事今天上午的言论开启了12月加息50个基点的可能性。虽然我们不排除这种可能,但更大幅度的加息不是我们的基本预测。”

"Governor Waller’s comments this morning opened the possibility of a 50bps rate increase in December. While we would not rule it out, a larger increment is not our base case," Deutsche Bank said.

德意志银行预计美联储将在2027年1月加息,此前通胀数据火热。风险披露:交易金融工具和/或加密货币涉及高风险,包括可能损失部分或全部投资金额,可能不适合所有投资者。加密货币价格极度波动,可能受到金融、监管或政治事件等外部因素的影响。保证金交易会增加财务风险。

Deutsche Bank expects Fed rate hike in January 2027 after hot inflation data Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.

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