华尔街近期曾将通胀担忧暂时搁置，交易员转而关注美国中期选举和科技股的剧烈波动。这种局面已成过去。消费者价格指数（CPI）10月环比上涨0.4%，高于道琼斯共识预期的0.3%涨幅。这一数据加上美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒早前的言论，令部分交易员突然押注美联储12月将大幅加息50个基点。芝商所（CME Group）的“美联储观察”工具显示，12月加息50个基点的概率为11%，一周前为零；加息25个基点的预期为88%，一周前为77%。
Wall Street has recently been able to put inflation worries on the back burner, as traders focused instead on the U.S. midterm elections and wild swings in tech stocks. That's over now. The consumer price index rose 0.4% in October from September. That's more than a Dow Jones consensus estimate of a 0.3% increase. The numbers, coupled with earlier comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, have some traders suddenly pricing in a supersized half-point interest rate increase in December. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows there's an 11% chance of a 50 basis-point hike in December, up from zero a week ago. Expectations for a quarter-point increase stand at 88%, up from 77% a week ago.
“消费者的通胀噩梦在第四季度伊始仍在持续，看不到缓解迹象，本月杂货账单大涨，外出就餐成本高企，”FWDBonds首席经济学家克里斯托弗·鲁普基表示。“通胀并未自行消退，如果美联储官员指望扑灭通胀之火，将需要拿出更大力度的手段。”“抛售股票，抛售债券，全盘抛售，”鲁普基补充道。
"The consumer's inflation nightmare continues on at the start of the fourth quarter with no relief in sight where this month's grocery bills have jumped and the cost of dining out is sky-high," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBonds. "Inflation is not rolling over and playing dead and Fed officials are going to need to bring a bigger hose if they have any hope of putting the inflation fire out." "Sell stocks, sell bonds, sell it all," Rupkey added.
交易员在早盘交易中听从了此类警告。周二早盘通胀数据公布后，股市受挫。基准10年期美国国债价格下跌，推高收益率近10个基点，至4.95%。以下是华尔街其他策略师、经济学家和投资者的观点：高盛资产管理多部门固定收益投资主管林赛·罗斯纳：“CPI数据火热，暗示美联储加息可能延续至2027年。随着CPI持续强劲，美联储可能推动更激进的紧缩周期。”
Traders heeded such warnings in early trading. Equities took a hit following Tuesday morning's inflation release. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note also dropped, pushing up its yield nearly 10 basis points, to 4.95%. Here's what other strategists, economists and investors on the Street had to say: Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management: "Hot CPI Signals Fed Hikes Could Spill into 2027. The Fed could push for a more-aggressive tightening cycle with CPI continuing to print strong.
尽管人工智能领域的担忧情绪加剧，12月加息仍是我们的基本预期情形，而顽固的通胀意味着我们不能排除2027年进一步加息的可能性。Northlight Asset Management首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示：“鉴于通胀高于预期水平，美联储12月加息的可能性现在更大了，虽然有人呼吁将联邦基金目标利率上调0.5个百分点，但我们预计他们下个月只会加息0.25个百分点。”
A December hike is our firm base case despite wider AI jitters, and stubborn inflation means we cannot rule out further hikes in 2027." Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management: "Given the higher-than-desired inflation, it is even more likely now that the Fed will raise rates in December and although some are calling for a 0.5% increase in the Fed Funds target rate, we expect that they will only raise rates by 0.25% next month."
BMO美国利率主管Ian Lyngen称：“总体而言，强劲的10月非农就业数据与粘性核心CPI的组合表明，不仅12月加息已成定局，而且正如Waller所建议的，50个基点的加息幅度将在确保美联储公信力的背景下被讨论。从此刻起，市场将继续消化远期利率曲线前端的廉价化，因为非零概率的50个基点加息已被计价。市场还需要消化今天下午的10年期国债再融资拍卖——数据反应导致了一种供给让步。”
Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates at BMO: "Overall, the combination of strong October payrolls and sticky core-CPI suggests that not only is a December hike a foregone conclusion, but also that as Waller suggests, a 50 bp hike will be discussed in the context of ensuring Fed credibility. From here, the market will continue to cheapen up the front-end of the curve as a nonzero probability of a 50 bp move is priced in. The market will also need to take down this afternoon's 10-year refunding auction — the data response has contributed to a supply concession of sorts."
eToro美国投资分析师Bret Kenwell指出：“市场应对高企的国债收益率和走强的美元表现得比许多投资者预期的要好。但如果市场开始计价多次加息，收益率随之走高，这种韧性可能会受到考验。更大的风险不仅仅是收益率走高，而是利率路径上移。”Regan Capital首席投资官Skyler Weinand说：“周二公布的CPI强于预期，这为12月再次加息奠定了基础，因为美联储显然无法忽视通胀数据明显回升这一事实。选民在中期选举中表达了对通胀和物价上涨的不满，因此美联储必须兑现承诺，加息以遏制进一步通胀。”Federated Hermes固定收益投资策略师Karen Manna表示：“这是市场最不愿看到的报告。”
Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro: "Markets have handled elevated Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar better than many investors expected. But that resilience could be tested if markets begin pricing in multiple rate hikes and yields move higher in response. The bigger risk is not simply higher yields, but a higher rate path." Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer, Regan Capital : "Tuesday's CPI was stronger-than-expected, which sets the stage for another rate hike in December, as it's clear the Federal Reserve can't ignore the obvious uptick in the inflation data. Voters expressed their frustration with inflation and rising prices in the midterm elections, so the Fed must follow through in raising interest rates to curb further inflation." Karen Manna, fixed income investment strategist at Federated Hermes: "This was the report the market could least afford to see.
更热的通胀数据引发了新的疑问，即美联储是否已做足够工作来遏制价格压力，并加强了利率需要进一步上调并维持更长时间的风险。随着12月会议临近，这份报告强化了再次加息的理由，并给决策者带来了更大压力，要求他们保持警惕。”先锋集团高级美国经济学家Josh Hirt表示：“虽然总体通胀几乎没有缓和，但其构成已发生相当大的转变。在这些超大冲击之下，经济似乎表现得更符合美联储的目标，适度的政策调整足以恢复物价稳定，同时维持劳动力市场平衡。”
A hotter inflation print raises fresh questions about whether the Fed has done enough to contain price pressures and reinforces the risk that interest rates need to move higher and stay there for longer. With December's meeting on the horizon, this report strengthens the case for another rate hike and puts even more pressure on policy makers to remain vigilant." Josh Hirt, senior U.S. economist at Vanguard: "While overall inflation has moderated little, its composition has shifted considerably. Underneath these outsized shocks, the economy appears to be behaving more in line with the Fed's objectives, making modest policy adjustments sufficient to restore price stability while preserving labor-market balance."
富兰克林邓普顿研究院投资策略主管Jeff Schulze表示：“今天的数据发布将成为风险资产的逆风因素，因为投资者开始为12月加息50个基点以及随后的进一步加息定价，较高的短端收益率和更强势的美元将拖累股票估值。”Janus Henderson短期债券与流动性全球主管兼投资组合经理Daniel Siluk表示：“随着通胀势头向错误方向发展，且潜在压力被证明具有持续性，决策者可能需要发出信号，表明利率路径将更高，且更愿意让政策维持限制性更长时间。”
——CNBC的John Melloy、Michelle Fox、Deena Zaidi、Ananya Chetia和Liz Napolitano参与了报道。
Jeff Schulze, head investment strategist at Franklin Templeton Institute: "Today's release will be a headwind to risk assets as investors price the possibility of a 50bp hike in December and additional hikes beyond, with higher front-end yields and a stronger dollar weighing on equity valuations." Daniel Siluk, global head of short duration & liquidity and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson: "With inflation momentum moving in the wrong direction and underlying pressures proving persistent, policymakers may need to signal both a higher rate path and a greater willingness to keep policy restrictive for longer." — CNBC's John Melloy, Michelle Fox, Deena Zaidi, Ananya Chetia and Liz Napolitano contributed reporting.