Investing.com——据CME“美联储观察”工具显示，在周二公布的消费者通胀数据高于预期后，市场大幅提高了对美联储将在12月加息的押注。美联储官员的一系列鹰派表态也助推了对12月加息押注的增加。
Investing.com-- Markets sharply raised their bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December following hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data on Tuesday, CME Fedwatch showed. A swathe of hawkish statements from Fed officials also factored into increased bets on a December hike.
CME“美联储观察”工具显示，市场目前预计美联储在12月加息25个基点的概率为88.8%，高于一周前的约72%。
Markets are now pricing in a 88.8% chance for a 25 basis point hike in December, up from about 72% a week ago, CME Fedwatch showed.
市场不再预期美联储在12月维持利率不变，而是预计有11.2%的概率美联储将在下个月加息50个基点。
Markets are no longer pricing in the possibility of a December hold, and are pricing a 11.2% chance the Fed hikes by 50 bps next month.
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预期的转变主要源于周二公布的10月消费者价格指数（CPI）通胀数据强于预期。
The shift in expectations was driven chiefly by stronger-than-expected consumer price index inflation data for October, released on Tuesday.
上月总体CPI和核心CPI涨幅均快于预期，受到高能源成本和与人工智能建设相关的定价等多重因素驱动。
Headline and core CPI grew faster than expected last month, driven by a mix of high energy costs and pricing related to the artificial intelligence buildout.
数据公布之际，美联储官员周二发表了鹰派言论。理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，考虑到顽固通胀带来的风险增加，央行应在12月加息。
The print was accompanied by hawkish commentary from Fed officials on Tuesday. Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank ought to hike rates in December, citing increasing risks from sticky inflation.
此外，拥有联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）投票权的费城联储主席安娜·保罗森也表示，她支持货币政策进一步“逐步收紧”。
Separately, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson– who has a vote on the Fed’s rate-setting board– also said she supported a “further gradual tightening” in monetary policy.
央行在9月加息25个基点——这是三年来首次此类举措——主席凯文·沃什重申了央行对2%通胀目标的承诺。
The central bank raised rates by 25 bps in September– its first such move in three years– with Chair Kevin Warsh reiterating the bank’s commitment to its 2% inflation target.
虽然央行在10月维持利率不变，但分析师质疑这一暂停是否预示着未来几个月将以更快的步伐收紧政策。
While the central bank did leave rates unchanged in October, analysts questioned whether the hold heralded a steeper pace of tightening in the coming months.
澳新银行分析师在一份报告中表示：“事后看来，美联储在10月决定维持利率不变似乎是一个错误。或者，如果美联储倾向于等待更多数据，这可能意味着当其采取行动时，准备加息幅度大于25个基点。”
“In hindsight, the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates on hold in October looks to have been a mistake. Or, if the Fed prefers to wait for more data, it could mean that it is prepared to raise rates in larger increments than 25bp when it does act,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
第三季度国内生产总值数据表现强于预期，10月非农就业数据亦是如此。
Third-quarter gross domestic product data read stronger than expected, as did nonfarm payrolls data for October.
这些数据显示，制约美联储进一步收紧政策的两大悬念——经济增长放缓和就业市场疲软——基本仍处于可控范围内，使央行拥有足够的空间考虑进一步加息。
The prints showed that the two biggest overhangs for further Fed tightening– slowing growth and a weak job market– remained largely in check, giving the central bank enough headroom to consider more rate hikes.