CoreWeave的成功取决于快速扩大其数据中心规模，同时降低资本成本。最近，这两件事都变得更加困难。
CoreWeave’s success hinges on rapidly expanding its data center footprint while driving down its cost of capital. Both of those things have become much more challenging lately.
CoreWeave商业模式的压力，使这家由英伟达支持的人工智能云计算公司成为投资者对人工智能热潮焦虑的出口。其股价自5月达到高点以来已下跌约65%，尽管周二在盘后交易中上涨，此前该公司公布了强劲的季度业绩。该公司短期内看起来不错。不过，更远的未来则不那么确定。
Strains in CoreWeave’s business model have made the Nvidia-backed AI cloud-computing company an outlet for investor angst about the AI boom. Its stock has fallen about 65% since reaching a peak in May, although it rose in after-hours trading Tuesday after reporting strong quarterly results. The company looks fine in the near term. Things look less certain further into the future, though.
CoreWeave周二表示，其收入积压量在9月底达到1325亿美元，较三个月前的约1040亿美元有所增长。高管们预计，当前季度的收入约为48亿美元，高于分析师的预期。
CoreWeave said Tuesday that its revenue backlog reached $132.5 billion at the end of September, up from about $104 billion three months earlier. Executives gave a forecast of around $4.8 billion of revenue for the current quarter, above analysts’ projections.
不过，CoreWeave面临的问题是，要实现其全部潜力并实现盈利，它需要更多资本，而这些资本似乎并不容易获得。
The problem for CoreWeave, though, is that it will need more capital to reach its full potential and become profitable, and that capital doesn’t look readily available.
仅今年，该公司就通过债券和可转债发行了超过100亿美元的无担保债务，以推动其扩张并为拥有更多数据中心规模融资。这将提高CoreWeave的利润率，该公司目前租赁了其运营的大部分数据中心空间。
The company has issued over $10 billion of unsecured debt via bonds and convertible notes this year alone to fuel its expansion and finance a move to own more of its data center footprint. That would improve profit margins for CoreWeave, which currently leases the bulk of the data center space it operates in.
但CoreWeave的无担保债券价格与其股价一起受到打击，这表明通过债券发行筹集更多资金将极其昂贵，甚至不可能。根据MarketAxess的数据，截至周二，CoreWeave交易最活跃的债券（票面利率为9.625%，2032年到期）的价格已大幅下跌，收益率约为15%。如果CoreWeave不得不发行新债务，这将是一笔沉重的利息支出。
But CoreWeave’s unsecured bond prices have been punished alongside its stock, suggesting it would be extremely costly or impossible to bring in more money through debt issuances. The price of CoreWeave’s most actively traded bond, which has a coupon rate of 9.625% and matures in 2032, had fallen so far by Tuesday that it was yielding about 15%, according to MarketAxess. That would be a hefty rate to pay if CoreWeave had to issue new debt.
“展望未来，我们不会在当前收益率下利用无担保债务市场为我们的业务融资，也不需要这样做，”首席执行官迈克尔·因特拉特周二在与分析师的电话会议上表示，阐述了一种绕过这一压力的策略。
“Looking ahead, we will not use the unsecured debt market to fund our business at current yields, nor do we need to,” Chief Executive Michael Intrator said on a call with analysts Tuesday, outlining a strategy to work around that pressure.
他说，公司目前预计今年总额高达390亿美元的资本支出中，很大一部分是通过客户预付款和定金来融资的。他说，仅在未来三个月，这些付款就将达到约90亿美元。另一项助力来自已全部付清的旧AI芯片，这些芯片继续以高利润率产生收入。
He said a large share of the company’s capital spending, currently expected to total up to $39 billion this year, is being funded via prepayments and deposits from customers. Those payments would total about $9 billion in the next three months alone, he said. Another boost comes from older and fully paid-off AI chips that continue to generate revenue with high margins.
尽管CoreWeave的利息支出在最近几个季度稳步上升，但其占收入的比例正在下降。这意味着借款成本目前可控，至少暂时如此。
While CoreWeave’s interest expenses have steadily risen in recent quarters, they are declining as a percentage of its revenue. That means borrowing costs are under control, at least for now.
但CoreWeave的目标是到2030年将已安装的算力提升至至少8吉瓦，而目前为1.7吉瓦。这是一个惊人的数字——足以为约七百万户家庭供电——而只有大约三年时间来实现。
But CoreWeave is targeting at least 8 gigawatts of installed computing power by 2030, up from 1.7 gigawatts currently. That is a staggering amount—enough electricity to power around seven million homes—with only about three years to get there.
这意味着CoreWeave可能需要在中期融资方面想出新办法。因特拉特表示，除了预付款和其他筹措现金的举措外，公司还在从设备供应商处获得融资。他说，这些方式合计将满足“绝大部分资本需求”一直到明年，仅在母公司层面筹集有限金额。
That means CoreWeave may need to get creative with how it funds its growth in the medium term. Intrator said the company was getting financing from equipment suppliers in addition to prepayments and other moves to bring in cash. Together, he said, they would meet “the significant majority of our capital needs” through next year, with only a limited amount raised at the parent-company level.
然而，即使不考虑其更长期的资本担忧，风险认知也可能阻碍CoreWeave的扩张。已经有迹象表明，向CoreWeave出租数据中心的运营商对该公司的最终客户变得更加挑剔。在尼德汉姆公司（Needham & Co.）覆盖的数据中心运营商中，“没有一家再将CoreWeave作为租户，除非有投资级实体提供全额租金担保，这进一步阻碍了CoreWeave实现目标的能力，”分析师约翰·托达罗（John Todaro）表示。
Yet perceptions of risk could hamper CoreWeave’s expansion, even when setting aside its longer-term capital concerns. There are already indications that data center operators that lease to CoreWeave are getting pickier about who the company’s end customers are. Among data center operators Needham & Co. covers, “none areg CoreWeave as a tenant anymore without a full rental backstop from an investment grade entity, which further hampers CoreWeave’s ability to hit targets,” analyst John Todaro said.
政治压力也可能带来影响。上周的中期选举使民主党在国会两院均取得多数席位。立法者已经计划调查数据中心对美国电网的影响。
Political pressures could also weigh. Last week’s midterms swept in Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress. Lawmakers are already planning investigations into data centers’ impact on the U.S. electricity grid.
CoreWeave在短期内可能不受影响，因为已有的大型项目正在进行中，不太可能受到影响。不过，超出这个范围之后，影响就更难预测了。因特拉特周二表示，他对数据中心的状况“非常放心”，这些数据中心是公司收入积压资金投入的去向，他还指出公司也在扩展美国境外业务。
CoreWeave may be insulated in the near term, with big projects that are already under way and unlikely to be affected. Beyond that, though, the impact is harder to predict. Intrator on Tuesday said he was “very comfortable” about the status of the data centers its revenue backlog was going into and noted the company was also expanding outside the U.S.
对CoreWeave未来而言，或许最重要的是维持一套经得起时间考验的设备融资模式，该模式与其无担保债务分离。在这种结构下，CoreWeave利用其购买的芯片和与客户签订的合同来获得有担保融资，这对投资者来说风险较低。
Perhaps most critical for CoreWeave’s future is sustaining a time-tested equipment-financing model that is separate from its unsecured debt. In that structure, CoreWeave uses the chips it buys and contracts it signs with customers to get secured financing, a less-risky proposition for investors.
只要信誉良好的客户继续排队，以确保获得CoreWeave的算力，这条融资渠道就是可预测的。但与公司债券不同，这些交易对CoreWeave如何使用资金有限制，并且仍然存在风险：信用评级公司穆迪四月份指出，在CoreWeave的一项有担保融资中，“不可抗力风险仍然存在”。如果出现导致不可抗力声明的项目延误，这可能成为问题，就像九月甲骨文计划租赁的一个数据中心项目中发生的那样。
That financing avenue is predictable as long as creditworthy customers continue lining up to secure access to CoreWeave’s computing power. But unlike corporate bonds, those deals come with limits on what CoreWeave can do with the money, and still contain risks: Credit-ratings firm Moody’s noted in April that “force majeure exposure remains a risk” in one of CoreWeave’s secured financings. That could become a problem if there are project delays that lead to a force majeure declaration, as occurred in September at a data center project Oracle plans to lease.
不过，最终决定CoreWeave命运的，将是它与之密不可分的AI热潮的走势。而最近关于这一走势出现了一些令人担忧的迹象。股价的大幅下跌使其成为一个引人注目的投资选择，但其众多风险以及作为AI担忧代理的地位，让投资者面临一段颠簸的旅程。
What ultimately will determine CoreWeave’s fate, though, is the trajectory of the AI boom to which it is inextricably tied. And there have been some worrying signs about that trajectory lately. The stock’s steep decline makes it an intriguing investment proposition, but its many risks and its status as a proxy for AI worries set up investors for a bumpy ride.