我是一名反向技术投资者。我寻找我认为华尔街误解的公司。目前，CoreWeave 是一个极具吸引力的例子。这家总部位于新泽西州利文斯顿的公司是人工智能云基础设施的领先提供商。可以把它看作 GPU 领域的亚马逊云科技（AWS）。CoreWeave 不提供通用云计算，而是专注于开发和运行 AI 模型所需的强大计算基础设施。关键点已在 AI 基础设施领域建立领先地位，并正在迅速扩大版图。
I'm a contrarian technology investor. I look for companies that I believe Wall Street has misunderstood. Right now CoreWeave is a compelling example. The Livingston, New Jersey-based company is a leading provider of cloud infrastructure for artificial intelligence. Think of it as the Amazon Web Services of the GPU world. Rather than providing general-purpose cloud computing, CoreWeave specializes in the powerful computing infrastructure needed to develop and run AI models. Key points Has built a leading position in AI infrastructure and is rapidly expanding its footprint.
与主要客户签订的长期合同有助于缓解其沉重债务负担带来的风险。
Long-term contracts with major customers help mitigate risks from its heavy debt load.
随着公司投入使用更多数据中心，未来几年营收和盈利能力可能大幅跃升。
Revenue and profitability could surge over the next several years as the company brings more data centers online.
CoreWeave 为构建 AI 基础设施承担了巨额债务，投资者感到不安。这些担忧加上更广泛的科技股抛售，导致其股价上周大幅下跌。但我坚持我的判断。CoreWeave 已与科技界一些最大牌公司签下长期合同，对 AI 算力的需求丝毫没有放缓迹象。这无疑是一项高风险策略。但我相信该公司拥有客户资源和增长潜力，足以让其雄心勃勃的扩张计划获得回报。
CoreWeave has taken on an enormous amount of debt to build out its AI infrastructure, and investors are getting nervous. Those concerns coupled with a broader technology sell-off sent shares sharply lower last week. But I'm sticking with my call. CoreWeave has secured long-term contracts with some of the biggest names in technology, and demand for AI computing capacity shows no signs of slowing. It's a risky strategy, no question. But I believe the company has the customers and growth potential to make its ambitious expansion pay off.
我为何买入 CoreWeave CoreWeave 建设 AI 产能的速度快于竞争对手CoreWeave 已确立自己在新兴“新云”行业的领导者地位，该行业为 AI 公司提供专用计算基础设施。公司拥有 51 个数据中心，约 1.5 吉瓦的活跃电力容量和 4.2 吉瓦的合同电力容量。为更直观地理解，仅在最近一个季度，公司就新增了 500 兆瓦的容量，超过了其大多数竞争对手的总部署容量。
Why I'm buying CoreWeave is building AI capacity faster than its rivals CoreWeave has already established itself as a leader in the emerging neocloud industry, which provides specialized computing infrastructure for AI companies. It has 51 data centers, with approximately 1.5 gigawatts of active power capacity and 4.2 gigawatts of contracted power. To put that in perspective, the company added 500 megawatts of capacity in its most recent quarter alone, more than the total deployed capacity of most of its competitors.
我也看好 CoreWeave 的合作伙伴。其客户包括微软、Meta 和 OpenAI 等 AI 领域的最大牌企业。
I also like who CoreWeave is doing business with. Its customers include Microsoft, Meta and OpenAI, some of the biggest names in AI.
其许多合同均采用“收或付”协议结构，这意味着客户通常承诺为产能付费，无论其是否充分使用该产能。
Many of its contracts are structured as take-or-pay agreements, meaning customers generally commit to paying for capacity whether or not they fully use it.
债务担忧被夸大了。我们来谈谈房间里的大象：CoreWeave 为融资其快速扩张而大举借贷。信贷市场已开始以困境定价区间为其债务定价，这已传导至其股价的大幅回落。CRWV YTD mountain CoreWeave，年初至今CoreWeave 相较于竞争对手背负如此多债务的一个原因是，其基础设施建设进度更为靠前。该公司还采用由客户合同现金流担保的专业融资结构，这有助于支撑其巨额的资本支出需求。
Debt concerns are exaggerated Let's address the elephant in the room: CoreWeave has borrowed heavily to finance its rapid expansion. The credit markets have started to price its debt in distressed territory and that's transferred over to a big pullback in its equity. CRWV YTD mountain CoreWeave, YTD One reason CoreWeave carries so much debt relative to its competitors is that it's further along in building out its infrastructure. The company also uses specialized financing structures backed by contracted customer cash flows, which helps support its enormous capital spending requirements.
它手中还握有一张强有力的王牌：英伟达。这家芯片巨头在合同上承诺购买 CoreWeave 特定的闲置产能，并持有该公司大量股权。
It has another powerful partner in its corner: Nvidia . The chip giant has a contractual commitment to purchase certain unused CoreWeave capacity and owns a substantial equity stake in the company.
爆发式增长可能改变叙事。我预计 CoreWeave 年收入将从 2025 年的约 51 亿美元增至 2028 年的 436 亿美元。三年内增幅超过八倍。我还预测 2028 年调整后 EBITDA 利润率将达约 67%。若 CoreWeave 能兑现这些预测，我认为投资者将以截然不同的眼光看待其债务。且我们无需等到 2028 年便能看到公司是否取得进展。
Explosive growth could change the narrative I expect CoreWeave's annual revenue to grow from approximately $5.1 billion in 2025 to $43.6 billion in 2028. That's more than an eightfold increase in three years. I'm also forecasting an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 67% in 2028. If CoreWeave can deliver on those projections, I think investors will start looking at its debt very differently. And we won't have to wait until 2028 to see whether the company is making progress.
为何是现在？CoreWeave 股价徘徊于 52 周低点附近，我认为在公司 11 月 10 日发布财报前，这是一个极具吸引力的入场点。我预期业绩稳健，调整后 EBITDA 利润率有望超预期。我还将关注管理层对 12 月季度（即第四财季）展望中是否显示利润率进一步改善的迹象。我的正式目标价为 151 美元，意味着较当前 53.77 美元的股价约有 181% 的上涨空间。我认为该股未来两年股价可能翻倍甚至翻三倍。
Why now? With CoreWeave shares trading near their 52-week low, I see an attractive entry point ahead of the company's Nov. 10 earnings report. I'm expecting solid results, with the potential for an upside surprise in adjusted EBITDA margins. I'll also be watching for signs of further margin improvement in management's December-quarter outlook. My official price target is $151, implying roughly 181% upside from the current price of $53.77. I believe the stock could double or even triple over the next two years.
核心观点：CoreWeave 巨额债务使其在增长不及预期或融资成本上升时变得脆弱。但我最大的担忧是，该公司能否按时、按预算完成所有新数据中心产能的建设。我正在做出一个反共识的判断，这属于孤注一掷。几年后，我可能会显得像“GOAT”（像汤姆·布雷迪那样的历史最佳），也可能只是一个选股极其糟糕的“goat”（替罪羊/蠢人）。时间会给出答案。但我愿意逆流而行。
Bottom line CoreWeave's substantial debt makes it vulnerable if growth disappoints or financing becomes more expensive. But my biggest concern is whether the company can bring all that new data center capacity on time and on budget. I'm going out on a limb with this contrarian call. In a couple of years, I could look like the GOAT (Tom Brady style) or just a goat with a very bad stock pick. Time will tell. But I'm willing to go against the grain.
Paul Meeks 是 Freedom Capital Markets 的董事总经理兼科技研究主管。
Paul Meeks is the Managing Director and Head of Technology Research of Freedom Capital Markets .
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Disclosures: Meeks does not own shares personally or through the firm. All opinions expressed by the [CNBC Pro contributors] are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. This content is provided as part of our editorial output for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice or a recommendation to buy any security or other financial asset. The content is general in nature and does not reflect any individual's unique personal circumstances. The above content might not be suitable for your particular circumstances. Before making any financial decisions, you should strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor.
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