
芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯汀·戈尔茨比称最新的通胀数据“令人极度担忧”。“这是另一份令人沮丧的报告——令人极度担忧的”,戈尔茨比周二在接受PBS采访时说。
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee called the latest inflation data "borderline disturbing." "It's another distressing report — borderline disturbing," Goolsbee said in an interview with PBS Tuesday.
“我们手中确实存在一个真实的通胀问题,这一直在发展,”戈尔茨比在其讲话的转录中表示。“我们必须处理它。”根据美国劳工统计局周二发布的数据,10月份季节性调整后的消费者物价指数上涨0.4%,高于经济学家的预测。
"We have got a real inflation issue on our hands that has been developing," Goolsbee said, according to a transcript of his remarks. "We're going to have to deal with that." The consumer price index rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Tuesday release.
戈尔茨比表示,他没有看到像关税等价格驱动因素像他所希望的那样随时间消退。他还表示,服务领域持续高企的通胀令他担忧。
That was higher than economists had predicted. Goolsbee said he had not seen drivers of prices like tariffs fade over time like he hoped. He also said continuously high inflation on services concerned him.
芝加哥联邦储备银行行长表示,高昂的价格是他接触到的众多人最关注的问题。“它牵动着所有人的注意力,”戈尔茨比说。“它牵动着企业的注意力,牵动着非营利组织的注意力,也牵动着普通消费者的注意力。”联邦储备系统在考虑其下一步利率走势时,此通胀报告正处于关键节点,系统可能需要采取超出当前行动的措施,如果数据继续走高。
And the Chicago Fed chief said lofty prices are a top issue for many people he meets. "It's on everyone's mind," Goolsbee said. "It's on business mind. It's on nonprofits' minds. It's on ordinary consumers' mind." The inflation report landed at a critical juncture for the Federal Reserve, as it considers its next interest-rate move — and the moves it may have to make beyond that if the numbers continue to come in hot.
戈尔茨比的言论紧随其他联邦官员周二发表的讲话,这些官员表示,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)可能需要更果断地采取行动以遏制通胀。
Goolsbee's comments came on the heels of remarks from other Fed officials Tuesday who said the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee may need to act more decisively to rein in inflation.
当联邦储备系统调整利率时,通常会以0.25个百分点为单位进行调整。但联邦储备委员会成员克里斯托弗·华勒(Christopher Waller)早早周二在伦敦表示,如果通胀报告数据炽热,他可能会倾向于主张在12月采取超额的0.5个百分点加息,并明确表示,如果核心CPI处于“约0.3”的水平,则此加息应在考虑之列。数小时后,这一预测应验。
When it raises or lowers rates, the Fed typically moves them by a quarter-percentage point. But Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in London early Tuesday that a hot inflation report could push him toward advocating for an outsized half-point increase in December, and specifically said such a hike should be on the table if core CPI was "around 0.3." Hours later, that's exactly what happened.
达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛根周二在通胀报告后表示,她认为还需要两次各0.25个百分点的加息,并说“今冬可能比本年秋季联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)此前的加息速度更快”。利率制定委员会在9月将利率上调0.25个百分点,随后在10月投票决定保持不变。
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, speaking Tuesday after the inflation report, said she sees a need for two additional quarter-point increases, and said "it may be possible to move more rapidly this winter than the FOMC has moved so far this fall." The rate-setting committee raised rates by a quarter point in September before voting to hold them steady in October.
在经历了长期高于理想水平的价格增长后,Goolsbee表示,消费者和企业开始预期通胀炽热是“重大顾虑”。如果情况属实,他指出这会使降低通胀的过程变得“更加痛苦”。但Goolsbee没有说明他对是否应在12月的政策会议上加息是否持有明确观点。“我不喜欢过于具体,在下次会议或未来的会议上束缚我们的手,”Goolsbee说。
After years of higher-than-preferred price growth, Goolsbee said the possibility of consumers and businesses beginning to expect hot inflation is a "major concern." If that does happen, he said it can make the process of cooling inflation "much more painful." But Goolsbee didn't specify whether he thought the Fed should hike rates at its December policy gathering as a result of these concerns. "I'm not a fan of being very specific and tying our hands at the next meeting or meetings in the future," Goolsbee said.
Waller、Logan和Paulson是今年FOMC的投票成员,这意味着他们将在年底12月的委员会最后一次会议上投票决定是否加息。Goolsbee将在明年成为投票成员。
Waller, Logan and Paulson are voting members of the FOMC this year, which means they will cast votes on whether to raise rates at the committee's final meeting of the year in December. Goolsbee will be a voting member next year.
在通胀报告及多位联邦官员的表述之后,根据CME的FedWatch工具,Fed基金期货现在一致预期12月会议将加息。
In the wake of the inflation report and the remarks from the various Fed officials, Fed funds futures are now unanimously expecting a rate hike at the December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
现在的问题是美联储是将在12月会议上加息0.25个百分点还是0.5个百分点。Fed基金期货将12月加息0.5个百分点的可能性定为15%,截至周三上午。
Now the question is about whether the central bank will raise rates by a quarter or half percentage point. The Fed funds futures put the odds of a half-point hike at 15% as of Wednesday morning.