汽油价格下跌在十月为消费者提供了一些缓解，但美联储官员越来越担心，经济其他领域的通胀压力更难以遏制。
Falling gasoline prices provided some relief to consumers in October, but Federal Reserve officials are increasingly concerned that inflation pressures elsewhere in the economy are proving harder to contain.
根据美国能源信息署的数据，加油站油价下跌超过4%，为过去一年每加仑上涨超过一美元的飙升带来了喘息之机。
Prices at the pump declined by more than 4%, according to the Energy Information Administration, providing a respite from a surge that had added more than a dollar a gallon over the past year.
然而，劳工统计局将于周二上午8点30分发布的本月消费者物价指数预计将显示，降温幅度仅有轻微缓解。
However, the consumer price index for the month, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., is expected to show only a slight let-up.
与此同时，美联储官员表示，他们担心最初由特朗普总统的关税和伊朗战争推高的通胀，比预期更具持续性，价格压力正在冲击直接受影响的领域之外的行业出现。
Meanwhile, Fed officials say they are worried that inflation initially driven higher by President Donald Trump's tariffs and the Iran war is proving more persistent than expected, with price pressures emerging in sectors beyond those directly affected by the shocks.
在央行对就业市场状况日益有信心之际，生活成本问题才是美联储最关心的问题。
At a time when the central bank is increasingly confident about the state of the labor market, concerns over the cost of living are what are top of mind for the Fed.
“我们一直在向历史上我们会视为充分就业的水平靠拢，而大问题全都在通胀方面。我们四处走访，与辖区各地的人交谈，听到的全是企业方面的可负担性问题，也就是成本问题，”芝加哥联储总裁奥斯坦·古尔斯比周一在其辖区举办的活动中表示。“所以我们必须正视成本端和通胀端的失败。”所有项目的消费者物价指数读数预计将显示上涨0.3%。
"We've been moving up to what historically we'd consider full employment, and the big problem has all been on the inflation side. We go around, we talk to people everywhere in this district, all we hear about is affordability on the business side, the cost," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday during an event in his home district. "So we've got to come to terms with this cost-side and inflation-side failure." The CPI reading for all items is expected to show an increase of 0.3%.
根据道琼斯共识预测，剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本的核心通胀预计将上涨0.2%。虽然两者都将低于各自9月份的月度涨幅0.6%和0.3%，但它们仍代表了进一步的价格压力。
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is forecast to increase 0.2%, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. While both would be slower than the respective September monthly gains of 0.6% and 0.3%, they still represent further price pressures.
由于一年前的政府停摆，劳工统计局无法收集部分数据并编制完整的指数水平，因此10月没有年度读数。由于数据问题，该指数没有可比数字。
There will be no annual reading for October because of the government shutdown a year ago, which prevented the BLS from collecting some data and compiling a full index level. Because of the data issue, there isn't a comparable figure for the index.
美国银行利用去年同期数据的假设基准进行插值估算，将年度增长率估计为总体3.8%、核心2.7%，均比9月高0.1个百分点，远高于美联储2%的目标。
Bank of America, using an assumed baseline interpolating data for the period last year, estimated the annual growth rates at 3.8% for headline and 2.7% for core, both 0.1 percentage point higher than September and well above the Fed's 2% goal.
古尔斯比表示，当前的通胀走势与供给冲击和关税通常可能带来的预期相悖，当前局势因与人工智能相关的超大规模数据中心建设而加剧。
Goolsbee said the current run on inflation is defying what normally could be expected from supply shocks and tariffs, with the current situation intensified by the hyperscaler build-out related to artificial intelligence.
“本应现在已经消失，但我们现在开始看到通胀在一些可能与油价和关税无关的领域抬头，比如一大批服务。在我看来，现在这种人工智能数据中心建设的情况，开始更像是老式的需求过热，”他说。
"It was supposed to have gone away by now, and we're now starting to see the inflation kicking up in areas that probably weren't from oil prices and tariffs, like a bunch of services. Now this stuff with the AI data center build-out is, to my eyes, starting to look more just like old-fashioned demand overheating," he said.
他补充说，对数据中心的大规模投资正在创造对建筑工人、电力和设备的需求，即使人工智能承诺带来更长期的生产率提升，也可能增加价格压力。
The massive investment in data centers is creating demand for construction workers, electricity and equipment, potentially adding to price pressures even as AI promises longer-term productivity gains, he added.
尽管美联储10月投票决定维持基准利率不变，但根据CME美联储观察数据，市场定价显示，美联储在12月下次会议上加息四分之一百分点的概率超过80%。
Though the Fed in October voted to hold its benchmark interest rate in place, markets are pricing in a better than 80% probability that the central bank will raise rates by a quarter percentage point at its next meeting in December, according to CME FedWatch data.
古尔斯比今年不在联邦公开市场委员会投票，但2027年将拥有投票权。他没有表态是否倾向于进一步加息，尽管他说当前状况可能需要采取行动。
Goolsbee, who doesn't vote on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year but will in 2027, didn't commit to which way he was leaning on additional rate hikes, though he said current conditions could warrant action.
“传统观点认为：要在前期采取强硬措施，绝不能让经济过热，因为一旦经济过热，要消除那种过热就非常痛苦，”他说。“所以我认为我们必须在这方面保持警惕。”CPI数据发布之际，经济增长强劲——根据亚特兰大联储的数据，第三季度国内生产总值增长3.4%，第四季度最后三个月预计增长3.5%，劳动力市场也似乎状况良好。10月非农就业人口增加了远超预期的16.5万人，失业率小幅下降至4.1%，尽管通胀调整后的工资增长为负值。这使得通胀数据备受关注。
"The conventional wisdom there is: Be aggressive up front, to never let the economy overheat, because once it gets overheated, it's extremely painful to get rid of that kind of overheating," he said. "So I think we've got to watch out in that space." The CPI release comes with economic growth strong — 3.4% in the third quarter for gross domestic product and tracking at 3.5% for the final three months of the year, according to the Atlanta Fed — and the labor market seemingly in solid shape as well. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by a much better-than-expected 165,000 in October, while the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1%, though inflation-adjusted wage growth has been negative. That puts the inflation reading squarely in focus.
美国银行表示，关税影响正在消退，但由于人工智能需求，商品价格可能会被推高。此外，该机构对“黏性”服务价格以及来自健康保险和汽车的压力持谨慎态度。
Bank of America said it sees tariff impacts fading but that goods prices could be pushed higher because of AI demand. Further, the firm is cautious about "sticky" services prices as well as pressures from health insurance and autos.
该银行在美联储预期方面一直持鹰派立场，认为只要股市没有出现可能让央行却步的加剧抛售，12月加息的可能性就很大。
The bank has been hawkish in terms of Fed expectations and sees a December hike as likely so long as there isn't an escalated stock market sell-off that might dissuade the central bank.
“这是美联储12月8日至9日会议前的最后一份通胀报告。如果我们的预测正确，我们认为在其他条件不变的情况下，这将实际上锁定再次加息25个基点，”美国银行经济学家斯蒂芬·朱诺在一份客户报告中表示。“如果没有出现无可争议的0.1%[环比]温和数据，我们怀疑通胀数据不会阻止美联储在12月加息。我们预测面临的更大风险来自金融市场。”
"This will be the final inflation report before the Fed's December 8-9 meeting. If our forecast is correct, we think it would effectively lock in another 25bp hike, all else equal," BofA economist Stephen Juneau said in a client note. "Absent an indisputably soft 0.1% [month-over-month] print, we doubt the inflation data will dissuade the Fed from hiking in December. The bigger risk to our call comes from financial markets."