字号·· | 护眼
彭博社

婴儿潮一代老龄化是支撑公司债券市场的关键因素Aging Boomers Are Key Factor Supporting Corporate Bond Market

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

今年,寻求锁定相对较高收入的美国人出人意料地成为美国公司债券的 heavy 买家,即便近几个月收益率飙升,他们仍是这类证券的重要需求来源。

Americans seeking to lock in relatively high income have been surprisingly heavy buyers of US corporate bonds this year, emerging as an important source of demand for the securities even as yields have soared in recent months.

巴克莱银行策略师多米尼克·图布兰等人在上月写道,截至今年9月,个人投资者向跟踪一个综合指数的美国高评级债券基金投入了2680亿美元,几乎是2025年同期纪录金额的两倍。公司债券约占这些基金持仓的四分之一,这意味着其中很大一部分资金流入了公司债务市场。

Individuals have poured $268 billion into US high-grade bond funds tied to an aggregate index this year through September, almost twice the sum recorded at the same time in 2025, Barclays Plc strategists including Dominique Toublan wrote last month. Corporate bonds account for about a quarter of the funds’ holdings, meaning much of that money filters into the company debt markets.

部分由于这种购买,散户投资者目前持有约17%的高评级和高收益公司债券市场,为2022年初以来的最高比例,而当时正值美联储开始加息前后。最新这波个人投资者资金流入与历史趋势相悖:散户投资者往往在回报转为负值时减持,在行情不佳时加大抛售压力。但今年,他们却在收益率上升时入场。

In part because of that purchasing, retail investors now hold about 17% of the high-grade and high-yield corporate bond market, the highest percentage since early 2022, right around when the Federal Reserve started hiking rates. The latest influx of individual investors bucks historical trends: retail investors tend to pare their holdings when returns turn negative, adding selling pressure in bad times. But this year, they’ve stepped in when yields have been rising.

这些需求往往不足以推高价格,但有助于遏制抛售,并使公司债券利差保持相对较窄。截至周二收盘,美国高评级债券的风险溢价今年仅扩大0.1个百分点,至0.88个百分点。即便有所扩大,利差仍远窄于过去十年1.09个百分点的平均水平。

The demand often isn’t enough to lift prices, but it has helped to stem selloffs and keep corporate bond spreads relatively tight. Risk premiums on US high-grade bonds have widened just 0.1 percentage point this year through Tuesday’s close to 0.88 percentage point. Even with that widening, spreads are far tighter than the average of 1.09 percentage point over the last decade.

骏利亨德森投资的固定收益投资组合经理布拉德福德·史密斯表示,这些需求很可能来自投资者,其中包括多年来寻求获得相对较高收益的退休人员。在债券价格今年下跌后,买家现在可以买到提供高收益的蓝筹债券。例如,微软公司10月底发行的30年期债券收益率超过6%,其信用评级高于美国政府。截至周二收盘,美国公司债券的平均收益率约为5.9%。

The demand is probably coming from investors including retirees seeking to earn relatively high yields for years, according to Bradford Smith, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. After declines in bond prices this year, buyers now have access to blue-chip debt that offers lofty income. For example, 30-year Microsoft Corp. bonds sold in late October, which have a higher credit rating than the US government, yield more than 6%. The average yield on a US corporate bond as of Tuesday’s close was about 5.9%.

史密斯说:“对于那些靠固定收入生活或靠退休储蓄提供资金的人来说,这些收益率水平尤其具有吸引力。”

“For those living on fixed incomes or funding out of retirement savings, these are particularly attractive levels,” Smith said.

对于希望摆脱波动较大的股票、在退休时获得稳定收入的婴儿潮一代来说,这样的机会尤其具有吸引力。根据圣路易斯联储的数据,65岁以上人群占美国人口的比例达到创纪录的18%。

Such an opportunity is especially appealing for Baby Boomers looking to shift away from volatile equities and capture steady income as they retire. People above the age of 65 make up a record 18% of the US population, according to data from the St. Louis Fed.

摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益投资组合经理斯蒂芬妮·多伊尔在接受采访时说:“感觉散户终于开始接受这样的利率环境了。”

“It feels like the retail community is just embracing the rate backdrop finally,” said Stephanie Doyle, fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management in an interview.

花旗集团美国投资级信贷策略主管丹尼尔·索里德表示,家庭越来越多地通过目标日期基金等单一基金退休解决方案投资于市场。随着客户年龄增长,这些工具在股票和债券之间转换配置,并更多地偏向固定收益,此举旨在保护他们的财富免受波动影响。

Households have increasingly invested in the market through single-fund retirement solutions such as target-date funds, said Daniel Sorid, head of US investment grade credit strategy at Citigroup Inc. The vehicles shift allocation between equities and bonds and take on a stronger fixed-income bias as clients age, a move intended to shield their wealth from volatility.

然而,市场预期到2027年底美联储至少还会加息三次(每次25个基点),这对近期的势头构成了风险。散户买家渴望获得丰厚的收益率,但投资价格下跌的可能性可能会侵蚀他们的总回报。

However, market expectations for at least three more quarter-point US interest-rate hikes by late 2027 poses a risk to the recent momentum. Retail buyers crave juicy yields, but the potential for falling prices on their investments threatens to eat into their total returns.

道明证券信贷策略师汉斯·米克尔森说:“虽然散户投资者喜欢更高的收益率,但他们希望收益率保持稳定。”

“While retail investors like higher yields they want them to be stable there,” said Hans Mikkelsen, credit strategist at TD Securities.

不过,骏利亨德森的史密斯表示,加息对估值高企的AI相关股票的打击可能更大,从而使高等级公司债成为相对安全的避风港。

Still, rate hikes could do even more damage to AI-related stocks trading at lofty valuations, making high-grade corporate bonds a relative safe haven, according to Janus Henderson’s Smith.

对退休人士而言,这类资产兼具保住本金和提供可靠生活收入的双重好处。在近期的记忆中,公司债很少能产生如此高的收益率,而以往出现这种情况大多是在困境时期,例如2008年的全球金融危机。

For retirees, the asset class offers a dual benefit of capital preservation and reliable income to live on. Rarely in recent memory have corporate bonds generated such high yields, and those were largely in times of distress, such as the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

“你在Meta的长期债券,或者某个家喻户晓的名字的长期债券上看到的绝对收益率,正是散户开始觉得非常有吸引力的水平,”R. Seelaus & Co.首席执行官安妮·西劳斯上月在彭博智库Credit Edge播客上说。点击此处:散户抢购受挫的AI长期债券

“You’re just seeing absolute yields in long Meta paper, or a household name, that retail is starting to find really attractive,” said Annie Seelaus, chief executive officer of R. Seelaus & Co. on the Bloomberg Intelligence Credit Edge podcast last month. Click here: Retail Scoops Up Battered AI Long Bonds

阅读媒体原文 ↗