软银或许不是最早投资热门趋势的公司，但一旦出手，规模就很大。
SoftBank might not be the first to invest in a hot trend, but when it does, it goes big.
看看它在2025年初对OpenAI的300亿美元押注，或者它在2月宣布旗下SB Energy子公司将斥资330亿美元建设一座9.2吉瓦的天然气发电厂。我想，如果你不能做到第一，那就做到最大。
Witness its $30 billion bet on OpenAI in early 2025 or its announcement in February that its SB Energy subsidiary would spend $33 billion on a 9.2-gigawatt natural gas power plant. If you can’t be first, be biggest, I guess.
这种理念显然也延伸到了采购环节，订单同样超大。据报道，大约从两年前开始，软银为超过13吉瓦的涡轮机支付了定金，比其实际所需多出近50%。超额下单的决定无疑帮助软银锁定了涡轮机，并加快了项目进度。
That philosophy apparently spilled over into procurement, where orders were also supersized. Starting about two years ago, SoftBank reportedly put down deposits on more than 13 gigawatts of turbines, almost 50% more than it needed. The decision to over-order undoubtedly helped secure turbines and speed up SoftBank’s projects.
Noreva首席执行官彼得·加德特对TechCrunch表示：“如果SB Energy想立刻拿到一些涡轮机，他们别无选择，只能超额预订未来的涡轮机。”能源界对AI用电需求上升的速度和规模措手不及。涡轮机订单的排队现已排到2030年代初。随着天然气逐渐成为AI热潮的首选电力来源，软银首席执行官孙正义押注，通过动用其投资公司庞大的资金储备，他可以抢占一部分市场。如果AI界想为其数据中心获得电力，就得来找他。
“SB Energy did not have a choice except to overbook turbines in the future if they wanted some turbines right away,” Peter Gardett, CEO of Noreva, told TechCrunch via The energy world was caught off guard by the swiftness and magnitude of AI’s rising power demands. Queues for turbine orders now extend into the early 2030s. As natural gas was shaping up to be a go-to power source for the AI boom, CEO Masayoshi Son bet that by deploying his investment firm’s significant war chest, he could corner a portion of the market. If the AI world wanted power for its data centers, it would have to come to him.
如今，这一押注似乎已经落空。软银周二宣布季度亏损71亿美元，其中一半以上来自发电设备相关的亏损。这家投资者向涡轮机制造商支付了不可退还的定金以锁定订单，而现在它认为其中大部分已毫无价值。
Now, that bet appears to have fizzled. SoftBank announced a $7.1 billion quarterly loss on Tuesday, with over half of that stemming from losses related to power-generating equipment. The investor had paid turbine manufacturers nonrefundable deposits to secure orders, and now it considered much of those worthless.
加德特说，此举也是一次代价高昂的价格发现过程。软银没有选择支付更高价格、却仍可能拿不到足够涡轮机，而是支付了更高价格并超额下单。加德特说：“这笔减记正是价格发现终于发生的结果。”
The move was also a costly bit of price discovery, Gardett said. Rather than overpay and potentially still be short of turbines, SoftBank overpaid and over-ordered. “This charge is just that price discovery finally happening,” Gardett said.
这笔押错方向的赌注规模超过30亿美元，折射出席卷AI世界的某种电力狂热。面对长达数年的电网接入等待，许多超大规模云服务商和开发商已转向天然气，将其视为一种能源保障，因为它经过验证且为人熟悉。
The magnitude of that misplaced bet — over $3 billion — reflects some of the electricity mania that has overtaken the AI world. Faced with years-long waits to connect to the grid, many hyperscalers and developers have turned to natural gas as a sort of energy security blanket, something that is proven and familiar.
随着AI数据中心运行时间增加，运营方对维持其运转所需的条件也有了更清楚的感受。Ascend Analytics市场与战略高级董事总经理布伦特·纳尔逊周三在《Equity》播客中表示，天然气看似是稳妥的选择，但仍存在风险，包括冬季供应下降而需求激增时的限供。
As AI data centers spend more time in operation, their operators are getting a better feel for what’s required to keep them operating. Natural gas might seem like a safe bet, but there are still risks, including winter curtailments when supplies dip and demand spikes, Brent Nelson, senior managing director of markets and strategy at Ascend Analytics, told the Equity podcast Wednesday.
有鉴于此，纳尔逊表示，电网可能仍是他们的最佳选择。大多数数据中心最适合接入电网，尽管接入容量可能比它们通常申请的规模要小。纳尔逊说，为弥补缺口，大型电池是性价比高的选择。它们有助于削减峰值负荷，或撑过公用事业公司要求削减用电的时段。
In light of that, Nelson said the grid might still be their best bet. Most data centers would be best served by a grid connection, albeit a smaller one than they might normally request. To make up for the shortfall, large batteries are a cost-effective choice, Nelson said. They’d help shave peak loads or ride out requests from the utility to curtail electricity use.
数据中心的运营方可能也在得出同样的结论，这导致天然气市场的发展比软银预期的更慢。
Data center operators might be coming to that same conclusion, leading the natural gas market to develop more slowly than SoftBank expected.
软银与天然气相关的亏损不太可能引发多米诺骨牌效应，导致天然气发电厂大规模取消。AI的电力需求似乎太大，不至于出现这种情况。目前，天然气势头正盛，不过软银可能已经触及了它的天花板。
SoftBank’s natural gas-related losses are unlikely to have a domino effect, leading to mass cancellations of gas power plants. AI’s power demand appears to be too large for that. For now, natural gas is riding high, though SoftBank may have found its ceiling.