利开支，但他知道其中的政治风险有多高。
Any revolt among MPs is likely to be smaller than the one that badly damaged Keir Starmer's government.
他看到去年福利问题上的反叛如何标志着他的唐宁街前任开始走向终结。
By Iain Watson Andy Burnham has committed to bringing the welfare bill down, but he knows just how the high the political stakes are.
当120名，也就是超过四分之一的工党议员威胁要阻挠他的改革时，基尔·斯塔默爵士的权威荡然无存。
He saw how last year's welfare rebellion marked the beginning of the end for his predecessor in Downing Street. Sir Keir Starmer's authority was shredded when 120 - more than a quarter - of his own MPs threatened to derail his reforms.
为缓和局面，基尔爵士被迫保证，英格兰和威尔士的主要伤残福利——个人独立津贴（Pip）的现有申领者不会蒙受损失。
To defuse this, Sir Keir was compelled to guarantee that existing claimants of personal independence payment (Pip), the main disability benefit in England and Wales, wouldn't lose out.
即便如此，120名潜在工党反叛者中仍有49人投票反对本党政府。
Even then, 49 of the 120 potential Labour rebels still voted against their own government.
下周，前新工党内阁大臣艾伦·米尔本的一份评估报告可能再次引发工党内部争吵。
Next week, a review from former New Labour cabinet minister Alan Milburn has the capacity to create another internal row in Labour's ranks.
米尔本花了一年时间研究如何减少近百万未就业、未受教育或未接受培训的年轻人（Neets）。
Milburn has spent a year grappling with how to reduce the nearly one million young people who are not in employment, education or training (Neets).
他在接受《泰晤士报》采访时证实，他将建议削减部分16至24岁人士的福利，这些人目前领取Pip，或领取统一福利金中与健康相关的增强支付。
In an interview with the Times, he has now confirmed he is set to recommend cutting benefits for some 16-24 year olds who currently receive Pip, or the enhanced health-related payment of Universal Credit.
将削减福利方案提交议会工党，通常会产生与往水中加磷类似的效果。但据我试探，工党队伍的深水区比预想的要平静。“顺风”重要的是，去年福利反叛中最得力的两位组织者现在支持现任首相，而不是反对前任。
Taking benefit cuts to the Parliamentary Labour Party would usually have a similar effect to adding phosphorous to water. But from my soundings, the deep waters of the Labour ranks are calmer than might be expected. 'Fair wind' Importantly, two of the most effective organisers of last year's welfare rebellion are batting for the current prime minister, rather than against the previous one.
路易丝·黑格现在是仅次于安迪·伯纳姆本人最有实权的内阁大臣，而安妮莉丝·米奇利则是他的首席党鞭。
Louise Haigh is now the most powerful cabinet minister after Andy Burnham himself, while Anneliese Midgeley is his chief whip.
牵头那场反叛的议员梅格·希利尔也表示，她希望给米尔本的建议一个“顺风”。与之前的福利改革做法相比，也存在着明显差异。首先，这并非主要作为一项预设节省额度的削减成本行动来呈现。
And the MP who fronted that rebellion - Meg Hillier - has said she wants to give Milburn's proposals a "fair wind". There are also clear differences to the previous approach to welfare reform. First, it is not being presented as primarily a cost-cutting exercise with pre-determined savings.
相反，将会有前期投资，以向失业青年提供更多支持，实现净节省的时间框架可能设定在十年左右——这是渐进主义，而非短期剧烈冲击。
Instead, there will be upfront investment to provide more support to unemployed young people, and a timeframe for net savings likely to be set at around a decade – gradualism, not a short, sharp shock.
其次，去年的初步改革本将影响所有年龄段的人群，而此次福利削减将仅限于25岁以下人群，他们约占个人独立津贴申请人的11%。
Second, last year's initial reforms would have affected people in all age groups, whilst benefit cuts this time would be limited to the under 25s, who make up around 11% of Pip claimants.
我曾与几位政府部长交谈，他们曾对蕾切尔·里夫斯和丽兹·肯德尔此前设计的变革表示担忧——至少是在私下里。这一次，他们表示支持。
I've spoken to government ministers who had expressed concerns – at least privately – about the changes devised previously by Rachel Reeves and Liz Kendall. This time, they are on board.
其中一位部长告诉我，只要对青年提供足够的支持，并保障就业与培训，议员们对于部分福利削减会“接受”。
One of them told me that so long as there was enough support for young people, with guaranteed jobs and training, MPs would be "fine" with some benefit cuts.
但他们补充说，至关重要的是，那些真正无法工作的人不会变得更糟。
But they added that it was vital that those who really couldn't work wouldn't be worse off.
米尔本将建议，对于这类人群，甚至可能增加津贴支付；而一些因失去个人独立津贴而受损的残疾青年，仍可能获得额外“津贴”以帮助应对生活成本。另一位曾反对先前改革的部长称赞了此次的流程。
Milburn will suggest there could even be enhanced payments for people in this category, while some young people with disabilities who lose out on Pip could nonetheless be given an additional "allowance" to help with living costs. Another minister who opposed the previous reforms praised the process this time.
不仅米尔本，工作与养老金大臣帕特·麦克法登也高度参与其中，他一直在向议员们阐述改革背后的原则。
There had been a high level of engagement not just from Milburn, but Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden, who has been taking MPs through the principles behind the reforms.
还有一位部长稍显谨慎，表示对削减福利的支持将取决于整个改革“方案”究竟是什么样子。
One minister was a little more cautious, suggesting support for a reduction in benefits would depend on what the entire "package" of reforms looked like.
米尔本的建议预计将十分广泛——涵盖从学前政策到国民医疗服务体系如何应对心理健康问题。“魔鬼藏在细节中”去年的49名反对派议员中，一些人目前处于类似立场。
Milburn's recommendations are likely to be wide-ranging – from pre-school policies to how the NHS deals with mental health. 'Devil in the detail' Some of the eventual 49 rebels from last year are in a similar place.
约克选区议员雷切尔·马斯凯尔告诉我，至关重要的是她能看到提案的细节，而不是通过媒体“一点点滴滴”的报道，那种方式会“给青年造成压力和痛苦”。
York MP Rachael Maskell told me it was essential that she saw the detail of the proposals rather than the "drip, drip" of press reports which would "cause young people stress and distress".
她认为，让年轻人退出个人独立津贴（PIP）的做法“如用大锤砸坚果”，并担忧一些残疾人需要这项津贴才能继续工作。
She felt withdrawing Pip from young people was "like a sledgehammer to crack a nut" and was concerned that some disabled people required it to remain in work.
她还建议政府“不应只把矛头指向年轻人”，而应仔细研究雇主如何能雇佣更多年轻人。斯特劳德选区议员西蒙·奥弗去年也曾在福利问题上投下反对票。
She also suggested that the government "shouldn't just point the finger at young people," and should look closely at how employers could take more youngsters on. Stroud MP Simon Opher also voted against the government on welfare last year.
他告诉我，由于有如此多既不在上学、也不在工作、也不接受培训的年轻人（NEET），情况已属“危机”，米尔本提出了一个“可信的解决方案”。
He told me there was a "crisis" with so many Neets, and Milburn had come up with a "credible solution".
但他相信削减福利应是“最后手段”，并担忧限制年轻人获得普遍福利（Universal Credit）中的健康相关津贴，因为四分之一的年轻申请人并非NEET。他总结道，“魔鬼藏在细节里”。政治的许多方面——如同喜剧——都取决于时机。
But he believes cutting benefits should be a "last resort" and is worried about restricting access to the health element of Universal Credit, as a quarter of young claimants aren't Neet. He concludes that the "devil will be in the detail". So much of politics - like comedy – depends on timing.
对于一些持怀疑态度的人，包括在职大臣，如果在撤回权利之前先落实对年轻人的支持，米尔本的提案将会得到更热烈的欢迎。
For some sceptics, including serving ministers, the Milburn proposals will be more warmly welcomed if support for young people is in place before entitlements are withdrawn.
但对于一些工党议员来说，削减现有申请人的给付金额触碰了底线。
But for some Labour MPs, cutting payments to existing claimants crosses a line.
克拉珀姆和布里克顿山选区议员贝尔·里贝罗-阿迪表示，她不确定能否支持削减。
Clapham and Brixton Hill MP Bell Ribiero-Addy has she wasn't sure she could back cuts.
提到个人独立津贴，她不认为“通过拿走帮助残疾年轻人就业的钱，能让他们进入职场”。
Referring to Pip, she didn't believe that "you get a disabled young person into work by taking away the money that helps them to get into work".
党内左翼的另一位议员布莱恩·莱什曼告诉英国广播公司（BBC），他无法支持削减福利，因为“我们正处于生活成本危机之中”。因此，如果伯纳姆采纳米尔本的建议，福利造反似乎在所难免。
And another MP on the left of the party, Brian Leishman, told the BBC he couldn't back benefits cuts as "we are in the middle of a cost of living crisis". So a welfare rebellion seems guaranteed if Burnham accepts Milburn's recommendations.
但这不太可能达到同样的规模，或对斯塔默政府构成类似程度的政治险境。
But it seems unlikely to be of the same scale, or have a similar level of political jeopardy to the one which shook the Starmer government.
