约翰·希利和首相安迪·伯纳姆均表示希望降低福利开支，但政府尚未公布任何削减计划的时间表。
John Healey and Prime Minister Andy Burnham have both spoken of their desire for the benefits bill to come down, but the government has not yet laid out a timetable for any reductions.
他们的政敌批评他们在周三的预算案中缺乏福利改革的细节，指责政府推迟在削减开支方面做出艰难决定。
Their political opponents have criticised them for a lack of detail on welfare reform in Wednesday's Budget, accusing the government of delaying difficult decisions over cuts.
随预算案一同发布的官方预测显示，未来几年福利开支将以现金计价增加790亿英镑。
Official forecasts released alongside the Budget indicate welfare spending is going to increase by £79bn in cash terms over the next few years.
BBC核查组梳理了这一棘手政治议题背后的数字，以及政府为降低福利成本面临的一些艰难选项。
BBC Verify has taken a look at the numbers behind this thorny political issue and some of the difficult options the government have to bring down welfare costs.
官方预测机构——预算责任办公室（OBR）在其最新预测中估计，福利体系成本将从今年的3530亿英镑增至2032年的4310亿英镑。
The official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), estimates in its latest forecasts that the cost of the welfare system will rise from £353bn this year to £431bn in 2032.
OBR的数据包含养老金开支，占总额略低于一半。这部分成本的大头是国家养老金。
The OBR's figures include spending on pensioners, which accounts for just under half of the total. The majority of this cost is on the state pension.
然而，若以福利开支占整体经济规模的比例来看，OBR的预测则不那么惊人，预计将从目前的11.1%增至2032年的11.3%。
However, if we look at the size of welfare spending relative to the size of the overall economy the OBR's projections are less dramatic, increasing from 11.1% today to 11.3% of GDP in 2032.
总福利开支也将维持在2013年全球金融危机后约12% GDP的峰值之下，这导致一些经济学家和研究人员质疑福利开支失控的说法。但也有一些福利成本正在快速上升。
Total welfare spending would also remain below the peak of around 12% of GDP in 2013 following the global financial crisis, leading some economists and researchers to question the idea that welfare spending is out of control. But there are some welfare costs that are rising rapidly.
健康和残疾相关福利的开支，特别是个人独立津贴（PIP），自新冠疫情以来大幅上升。
Spending on health and disability related benefits, in particular Personal Independence Payments (PIP), is up sharply since the Covid-19 pandemic.
扣除通胀因素后，劳动年龄人口残疾福利开支从2020年的140亿英镑增至2026年的250亿英镑。
Accounting for inflation, spending on working-age disability benefits increased from £14bn in 2020 to £25bn in 2026.
经通胀调整后的福利支出仍低于2013年的水平，因为保守党领导的政府自2010年起作为紧缩计划的一部分，削减了包括普遍福利和住房福利在内的若干其他适龄劳动人口福利。
Inflation-adjusted welfare spending remains lower than 2013 because several other working-age benefits, such as Universal Credit and housing benefit, were cut by Conservative-led governments as part of their austerity programme from 2010 onwards.
因此，福利体系中部分领域的支出下降了，而其他领域的支出上升了——两者之间可能存在关联。
So spending in some parts of the system has come down while it has risen in others - and there could be a connection.
一些研究人员认为，2010年后对福利的削减可能激励人们转而申请疾病和残疾福利，以保障其生活水平，因此只是在体系内转移成本，而非产生持久节省。
Some researchers think the post-2010 welfare cuts to benefits might have created an incentive for people to claim sickness and disability benefits instead to protect their living standards, therefore shifting costs around the system rather than generating lasting savings.
许多人还认为，福利体系中申请福利（包括个人独立津贴）的年轻人数量不断增加，是一个具体问题。
Many also see a specific problem regarding the growing number of young people in the welfare system claiming benefits, including PIP.
官方数据显示，自2019年以来，16至24岁不在就业、教育或培训中的青年（Neets）人数增加了约23万，达到不到一百万。
Official figures show the number of 16 to 24-year-olds who are not in employment, education or training (Neets) has risen by around 230,000 since 2019 to just under one million.
前工党卫生大臣艾伦·米尔班正在主持一项关于Neets的官方审查，预计他将建议进行重大改革，旨在让许多人脱离福利并进入就业。
Former Labour health secretary Alan Milburn is leading an official review into Neets and is expected to recommend major reforms designed to get many off benefits and into work.
他在5月提交的中期报告估计，16至24岁人群的个人独立津贴年度支出从2020年的13亿英镑增至2025年的约32亿英镑。该报告还预测，这项成本五年后将达到65亿英镑，覆盖70万名年轻人。
His interim report in May estimated that annual PIP expenditure on 16 to 24-year-olds rose from £1.3bn in 2020 to around £3.2bn in 2025. It also projected this cost would reach £6.5bn and cover 700,000 young people in five years' time.
个人独立津贴申请人可以有工作，但官方统计显示，只有大约五分之一的人有工作。政客们往往对削减福利支出的含义表述不清。
PIP claimants can be in work, but official statistics show that only around one in five are. Politicians are often unclear about what they mean by reducing spending on welfare.
2025年3月，前首相基尔·斯塔默爵士领导的政府提出了一项计划，称该计划将通过收紧个人独立津贴的准入并降低与健康相关的普遍福利支付金额，到2030年每年节省50亿英镑的与健康相关的福利支出。
In March 2025, former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer's government presented a plan which it said would save £5bn a year from health-related welfare spending by 2030 by tightening PIP access and reducing the value of health-related Universal Credit payments.
但官方预测明确显示，改革后，以现金计算的每年与健康相关的福利支出仍将上涨，只是增速不及此前预期的路径。
But official forecasts made it clear that annual spending on health-related welfare in cash terms was still set to rise after the reform, just not as rapidly as the path it had previously been on.
然而，英国预算责任办公室（OBR）当时预测，这些计划将有助于使英国整体福利支出在中长期内以经济占比呈现“略微下降趋势”，而非此前预测的保持不变。
However, at the time the OBR did forecast the plans would help put overall UK welfare spending on a "slightly downward trajectory" as a share of the economy over the medium term, rather than remaining flat as had been previously projected.
因此，政府所追求的，可能是这种预期福利支出的相对下降，而非以现金计算的绝对削减。
So this type of relative reduction in anticipated welfare spending, rather than a cut in absolute cash terms, could be what the government seeks to deliver.
米尔本报告的最终版本预计在未来几周内发布，同时还将有残疾事务大臣斯蒂芬·蒂姆斯就个人独立津贴（PIP）改革方案提交的另一份最终报告。
The final Milburn report is expected in the coming weeks, as well as a separate final report from disability minister Stephen Timms into the options for PIP reform.
有猜测称，这些报告可能会建议为25岁以下人群建立新的福利体系，使其不符合PIP资格，且领取的款项低于老年人。
There has been speculation that these could recommend creating a new welfare system for people under the age of 25, so they are not eligible for PIP and receive lower payments than older people.
也有建议称，蒂姆斯可能会提出一项新的PIP资格测试以降低准入门槛，尽管他并未被明确指示寻求节省开支。
There are also suggestions Timms could propose a new PIP eligibility test to reduce access, although he was not specifically instructed to find savings.
沿着这些方向的改革，相对于支出上升的现有趋势，可能会在一定程度上节省福利开支，同时降低福利支出占国内生产总值（GDP）的预测比重。
Reforms along these lines could potentially make some savings to the welfare bill relative to the existing trajectory of rising spending, as well as reducing forecast welfare spending as share of GDP.
但一些分析人士认为，要实现可持续节省，此类改革可能还需要政府投入更多资金，特别是帮助年轻人就业并保持就业。
But some analysts argue that to be effective in delivering sustainable savings, such reforms are likely also to require the government to spend a lot more to enable young people in particular to get into and remain in work.
米尔本中期报告已释放这一信号，报告指出，政府每在青年就业支持上花费1英镑，福利支出约为25英镑，这表明他可能会提议大幅增加政府在福利转就业计划上的支出。
This was signalled by the interim Milburn report which noted that for every £1 the government spends on employment support for young people around £25 is spent on benefits, suggesting he could propose a significant increase in government spending on welfare-to-work schemes.
这意味着，至少在短期内，任何福利节省都可能被其他部门的额外支出所抵消。
This means that any welfare savings could, in the near term at least, be offset by additional spending in other departments.
然而，从长期来看，如果就业支持有效，这种做法仍可能带来福利支出节省。
However, in the long term this approach could still deliver welfare savings if the employment support was effective.
图形：Rob England 你希望 BBC Verify 调查什么？
Graphics by Rob England What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?