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智库警告未来数年“痛苦”,生活水平料将下降'Painful' years ahead, think tanks warn, as living standards set to fall

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经济智库警告称,未来几年人们将面临“痛苦”且“令人沮丧”的局面。此前有预测显示,生活水平增长几乎陷入停滞。

People are facing a "painful" and "depressing" few years ahead, economic think tanks have warned, after forecasts showed growth in living standards grinding almost to a halt.

决议基金会称,从现在到2029年,典型劳动年龄家庭的可支配收入将减少1050英镑,降幅为3%;财政研究所则表示,当前十年将是有记录以来家庭收入增长最糟糕的十年。

Typical working-age households would see their disposable income fall by £1,050, or 3%, between now and 2029, according to the Resolution Foundation, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the current decade would be the worst for household income growth on record.

财政大臣约翰·希利表示,他的预算案提供了“喘息空间”,但称政府“永远无法完全消除”生活成本压力。

Chancellor John Healey said his Budget offered "breathing space", but said the government could "never remove completely" cost of living pressures.

英国官方预测机构表示,其最新经济预测描绘了一幅“相当严峻的图景”。

The UK's official forecaster said its latest economic forecast painted a "pretty grim picture".

预算责任办公室将英国面临的艰难财政状况归咎于借贷成本上升以及美伊战争引发的通胀。

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), blamed the difficult financial situation facing the UK on higher borrowing costs and inflation caused by the US-Iran war.

为应对能源价格上涨,希利已宣布多项措施,包括100英镑的支持补贴,旨在缓解家庭财务压力。但决议基金会表示,这不足以抵消能源账单上涨的影响。

In response to rising energy prices, Healey has announced measures, including a £100 support payment, aimed at easing pressure on household finances. But that would not be enough to offset the impact of higher energy bills, the Resolution Foundation said.

该智库首席执行官露丝·柯蒂斯表示:“本届议会越来越像是前后两半截然不同。”

"This parliament is increasingly looking like one of two halves," said the think tank's chief executive, Ruth Curtice.

她说:“前半段的特征是生活水平上升、经济稳步增长以及公共服务获得额外资金。”但她表示,议会后半段将“举步维艰”。

"The first half has been marked by rising living standards, solid economic growth and extra funding for public services," she said. However, the second half of the parliament would be "tough going", she said.

柯蒂斯说,作为回应,政府提交了一份“散弹枪式”的预算案,未能充分应对国家面临的挑战。

In response the government had provided a "scattergun" Budget that did not do enough to address the challenges facing the country, Curtice said.

决议基金会表示,在本届议会期间,非养老金家庭在扣除税收、福利和住房成本后的收入将仅增长“区区”600英镑,且全部增长都集中在前五年。

Over the course of this parliament, incomes for non-pensioner households, after taxes, benefits, and housing costs are taken into account, will have risen by "a paltry" £600, the Resolution Foundation said, with the gains made in the first five years.

根据决议基金会的分析,即使政府提供了额外支持,家庭支付的能源账单仍将高于2022年上一次能源危机期间的水平。决议基金会表示,支持措施本应更有针对性地惠及最贫困的家庭。

Even after the extra support provided by the government, households will be left paying higher energy bills than during the last energy crisis in 2022, according to its analysis. The Resolution Foundation said the support should have been more targeted at the poorest households.

在发布预算案的同时,预算责任办公室公布了其经济预测,显示GDP增速将从2026年的1.2%放缓至2027年的1%。明年的预测值大幅低于该机构3月上次评估时的预期。

Alongside the Budget the OBR issued its economic forecast indicating a slowdown in GDP growth from 1.2% in 2026 to 1% in 2027. The forecast for next year is sharply lower than what was predicted at their last assessment in March.

预算责任办公室还将2027年的通胀预测从2%上调至3.4%。被冻结的税收起征点也在侵蚀人们的到手收入。

The OBR also put its forecast for inflation for 2027 up from 2% to 3.4%. Frozen tax thresholds are also eating into people's take-home pay.

不过,预算责任办公室也强调了经济预测的困难,特别指出通胀未来走势存在不确定性,实际结果可能大幅高于或低于其预测。

However, the OBR also emphasised the difficulties in economic forecasting, highlighting uncertainty over the future path of inflation, in particular, which could turn out to be either significantly higher or lower than their predictions.

决议基金会的预测聚焦于劳动年龄家庭的生活水平,而预算责任办公室则涵盖所有家庭,包括养老金领取者,并采用10年滚动平均增长率以计入短期波动。

While the Resolution Foundation focused its forecast for living standards on working age households, the OBR looks at all households, including pensioners and reflects a 10-year rolling average growth to take into account short-term fluctuations.

预算责任办公室发现,到本十年末,所有家庭的生活水平几乎不会增长,年增幅不足0.1%。

The OBR found that by the end of the decade living standards for all households would have barely grown, by less than 0.1% per year.

“这十年看来将成为有记录以来家庭收入增长最糟糕的十年,”财政研究所补充道。

"This decade looks set to be the worst decade for growth in household incomes on record," added the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

“任何临时性的生活成本补贴方案都无法解决这个问题。我们需要更强劲的经济。”财政研究所所长海伦·米勒表示,在本届议会任期内,政府的支出计划也将面临越来越大的压力。

"No amount of temporary cost of living packages will fix that. We need a stronger economy." IFS director Helen Miller said there would also be growing pressure on the government's spending plans over the parliament.

“支出计划看起来极为紧张。在我看来,这不像本届政府愿意执行的计划,”她说。

"Spending plans look extremely tight. They don't look to me like plans that this government would want to deliver," she said.

“这些计划能否落实至关重要,因为支出计划是降低借贷计划的基础,”她补充道。

"Whether or not they are delivered matters because the spending plans underpin the plan to bring down borrowing," she added.

米勒表示,她留下的印象是,希利希望经济好转,从而减轻这些支出决策的压力。

Miller said she was left with the impression that Healey was hoping the economy would improve to take the pressure off those spending decisions.

希利在英国广播公司《今日节目》上表示,包括伊朗战争和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰在内的“经济风暴”正在影响世界各国,政府正在力所能及的范围内提供帮助。他表示,能源账单补助将为大多数家庭创造“喘息空间”。

Healey, speaking on the BBC's Today Programme, said "economic storms", including the Iran war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, were affecting countries around the world and the government was seeking to help where it could. He said energy bill help would create "breathing space" for most households.

根据所在市政税等级,约有2000万户家庭将获得100英镑的补助。

Around 20 million households are set to receive the £100 payment based on which council tax band they are in.

但保守党影子财政大臣安德鲁·格里菲斯表示,这份预算案使公共财政变得“更加脆弱”,因为希利缩减了“余量”,即国家在收入与支出之间所拥有的缓冲空间。

But Conservative shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith said the Budget had left the public finances "more fragile" as Healey had reduced the "headroom" of the amount of buffer the country has between what it takes in revenues and what it spends.

自由民主党领袖埃德·戴维表示,对许多人来说,100英镑的能源补助会被视为这份预算案中最好的一项,但他表示,考虑到正在从人们薪水中拿走钱的“隐形增税”,这“还不够好”。

Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said the £100 energy payment would be identified as the best item in the Budget for many people, but said that it was "not good enough" when you considered the "stealth tax rises" that were taking money out of people's pay packets.

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