英国或许未直接卷入美伊战争，但该国经济已全面承受冲击。根据预算责任办公室（OBR）最新发布的官方预测，能源价格飙升将在短期内拖累增长、推高通胀，并使生活水平陷入“严峻”境地。利率也预计将上升，导致借贷成本增加，政府偿债负担也将加重。
The UK may have no involvement in the US-Iran war, but the country is feeling the full force of the conflict on its economy. Soaring energy prices are set to dent growth in the short term, push up inflation and leave living standards in a "grim" place, according to the latest official forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Interest rates are also predicted to rise, making borrowing more expensive, along with government debt repayments.
财政大臣约翰·希利警告，国家面临“现实的挑战”，并宣布了一系列政策，称将为家庭在未来几个月提供“喘息空间”。
Chancellor John Healey warned the nation faces "real challenges ahead" as he announced policies that he said would offer "breathing space" for households in the coming months.
他说：“我们面临的是全球经济风暴。我们不能指望它们自行消失。我们必须选择航向，驾驭它们前行。”在中东冲突爆发以来对英国经济的首次评估中，OBR指出，能源价格上涨是近期经济面临的最大风险。
"What we face today are global economic storms," he said. "We can't wish them away. We must choose the course we steer through them." In its first assessment of the UK economy since the Middle East conflict started, the OBR said rising energy prices were the biggest risk to the economy in the near future.
尽管上调了今年的增长预测，但OBR大幅下调了明年的预测，从1.6%降至1%。随后几年增长预计将反弹。
Despite raising its growth forecast for this year, it sharply cut its prediction for next year from 1.6% to 1%. Growth is then set to rebound in the following years.
经济增长时，企业往往增加投资、创造更多就业并提高工资，使人们平均感觉更富裕，尽管这需要时间，且并非所有人都能受益。
When an economy grows, businesses tend to invest more, create more jobs and give pay rises to workers, which leaves people feeling better off on average, though it can take time and not everyone necessarily benefits.
企业利润增加也会缴纳更多税收，使政府能在公共服务上投入更多。经济增长放缓或萎缩时，情况则相反。
Companies making higher profits also pay more in tax, which can enable the government to spend more on public services. When there is slow economic growth, or the economy shrinks, the opposite can occur.
通胀会拖累增长，OBR预测，随着更高的能源账单通过供应链传导至消费者，物价涨幅将加快，尤其是在2027年。
Inflation can weigh on growth and the OBR has forecast that prices are set to rise at a faster pace as higher energy bills filter through supply chains and to consumers, especially in 2027.
全球高油价已波及司机，汽油平均价格接近每升1.73英镑，柴油接近每升1.99英镑。
High global oil prices have already hit drivers at the pumps, with petrol priced at almost £1.73 per litre on average, while diesel is near £1.99.
长期油价上涨可能导致包括食品在内的大量商品价格逐渐上升，因为企业将面临的更高成本转嫁给了消费者。
Elevated oil prices over time can lead to prices edging upwards across a host of goods, such as food, as companies pass on the higher expenses they face to consumers.
商品通常由卡车和货车运送至目的地，因此高昂的燃油价格可能产生深远影响。
Goods are typically transported to destinations by lorries and vans, so high fuel prices can have far-reaching consequences.
英国预算责任办公室（OBR）现在认为，通胀将比此前预测的维持在更高水平更长时间，将在2027年达到3.8%的峰值。
The OBR now thinks inflation will stay higher for longer than previously forecast, peaking at 3.8% in 2027.
尽管政府宣布了生活成本支持措施，但Pantheon Macroeconomics的经济学家表示，考虑到我们预计冬季通胀将激增，这些措施“杯水车薪”。
Despite the cost-of-living support announced by the government, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said the measures were "small beer given the surge in inflation we expect over the winter".
高通胀给生活水平描绘了一幅黯淡的图景，预算责任办公室预测，明年生活水平将下降，因为能源账单冲击了家庭的消费能力。
High inflation paints a bleak picture when it comes to living standards and the OBR has forecast a dip next year as energy bills hit the spending power of households.
然而，低收入者将受到更严重冲击，因为能源成本占其月度预算和可支配收入的比例更大。
Those on lower incomes are set to be hit harder, however, because energy costs eat up a bigger share of their monthly budget and disposable income.
作为衡量生活水平的指标，实际家庭可支配收入预计将从2027年开始增长，但增幅不如之前预期的大。
Real household disposable income, a measure of living standards, is forecast to grow from 2027, but not by as much as previously thought.
根据预算责任办公室的David Miles的说法，“这是一幅相当严峻的图景”，他表示，自新冠疫情前以来，个人“几乎没有增长”。
"It's a pretty grim picture," according to the OBR's David Miles, who says there has been "virtually no growth" for individuals since before the Covid pandemic.
“这是英国经济史上一段惨淡的时期。”通胀预计明年将平均达到3.4%，随后在本十年末接近英格兰银行2%的目标。
"It's been a dismal period in British economic history." Inflation is expected to average 3.4% next year, before falling to the Bank of England's 2% target towards the end of the decade.
由于近几个月通胀较高，英格兰银行普遍预计将在下周加息。利率目前为3.75%，但预算责任办公室现在预测，未来几年利率可能升至高达4.5%。此前曾预测今年将降息两次。利率上升会使借贷成本更高，但可以提高储蓄回报。通胀也增加了政府的借贷成本，债务利息支出将上升。
The Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates next week due to higher inflation in recent months. Rates are currently at 3.75%, but the OBR now forecasts they could rise to as high as 4.5% in the coming years. It had previously forecast two interest rate cuts this year. Higher rates makes borrowing money more expensive but can boost returns on savings. Inflation also raises the cost of borrowing for the government, with spending on debt interest set to rise.
此类还款预计也会增加政府的总借款额，而根据英国预算责任办公室（OBR）的预测，该借款额将在未来每年增加，增幅超过此前的预期。
Such repayments are also predicted to increase the overall amount the government borrows, which is set to increase every year by more than had been previously forecast by the OBR.
由于通胀导致福利和养老金支出增加，预计也会推高借款，尽管预计其占经济总量的比重在未来五年内将有所下降。
Higher spending on welfare and pensions due to inflation is also expected to increase borrowing, though it is forecast to fall as a share of the economy over the next five years.
然而，预测仅仅是对未来可能发生情况的最佳推测。鉴于中东冲突已推翻了此前的预测，战争的未来走向可能会改变通胀预期。
However, forecasts are only a best guess at what might happen in the future. Given the way the conflict in the Middle East has upended previous predictions, the future of the war could alter inflation expectations.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普曾表示，战争将在下个月的中期选举后结束。
US President Donald Trump has suggested the war will end after the mid-term elections next month.
英国预算责任办公室承认，由于中东局势的变化，其预测仍存在“重大不确定性”。
The OBR admitted there remained "significant uncertainty" around its predictions due to the changing situation in the Middle East.