在工党九月的党代会上，安迪·伯纳姆称英国可能“走到头”，重新加入欧盟。布鲁塞尔的英国首相对手可能认为，这不是认真的谈判基础。内阁意见分歧，议会也是如此。伯纳姆听起来若无其事。他轻松地对《经济学人》杂志说：“谁知道这里的终局会如何发展？”
At Labour’s conference in September Andy Burnham suggested Britain might “go all the way” and rejoin the European Union. The prime minister’s counterparts in Brussels may have thought this an unserious basis on which to negotiate. The cabinet is split, as is Parliament. Mr Burnham sounds nonchalant. As he breezily remarked to The Economist: “Who knows how it plays out in the endgame here?”
然而，英国首相在布鲁塞尔赢得了倾听。那里很少有人认为重新加入即将发生，也没人把它放在首要议程上。但伯纳姆因打破自2020年脱欧离婚最终确定以来一直存在的西敏沉默法则而受到赞誉。他的思考在欧盟官员看来，似乎是在探测英国公众舆论的界限。这与他的前任基尔·斯塔默爵士形成了鲜明对比，斯塔默在布鲁塞尔的大部分时间里都固执地否定各种可能性。
Yet Britain’s prime minister has won a hearing in Brussels. Few there think rejoining is imminent, and it is not at the top of anyone’s in-tray. But Mr Burnham’s is getting credit for breaking an omertà in Westminster that has held since 2020, when the Brexit divorce was finalised. His musings appear to Eurocrats as if he is probing the limits of British public opinion. It is quite a contrast with Sir Keir Starmer, his predecessor, who spent most of his time in Brussels stubbornly ruling things out.
“这不仅仅是工党内部的事，不，”一位欧洲外交官说。“这是一件大事，是关于重新加入的辩论的开始。”预计在11月20日的峰会上，英国和欧盟将最终敲定一份促进青年流动以及食品和排放贸易的方案。届时左右，伯纳姆计划在一次演讲中勾勒长期关系的选项。他坚称自己对可能的模式持开放态度。但最近，他为曾经是禁忌的人员自由流动辩护，并指出了规则接受者地位的缺陷。把这些点连起来，它们都指向英国重新加入欧盟。
“It’s not just an internal Labour matter, no,” says a European diplomat. “It is something big, the start of a debate about rejoining.”At a summit on November 20th, Britain and the EU are expected to finalise a package facilitating youth mobility and trade in food and emissions. In a speech around then, Mr Burnham plans to sketch out options for a long-term relationship. He insists he is open-minded about the possible model. But recently he has defended the free movement of people, once a taboo, and pointed out the deficiencies of rule-taker status. Join the dots and they point towards Britain rejoining the EU.
选举赌注显而易生：承诺与欧洲关系更近，或许有助于修补工党分裂的联盟。但英国政纲承诺（如果伯纳姆先生的思考最终成为政纲的话）往往会落在布鲁塞尔的门槛上。毕竟，2016年脱欧公投最初是时任首相大卫·卡梅伦试图团结保守党的尝试。“[伯纳姆先生]正在进行一场政治操作，”一位外交官说。“但如果他获胜，这将变得更加严肃。”一些观察人士感到困惑。
The electoral gambit is obvious: a promise to get closer to Europe may help patch up Labour’s splintered coalition. But British manifesto pledges (if that is what Mr Burnham’s musing becomes) have a habit of landing on Brussels’s doorstep. The 2016 Brexit referendum, after all, began life as an attempt by David Cameron, then prime minister, to unite the Conservatives. “[Mr Burnham] is pursuing a political manoeuvre,” says a diplomat. “But if he wins, it will become more serious.”Some observers are puzzled.
即使伯纳姆先生轻描淡写地谈论重新加入，英国谈判代表们却在为更小的事项争执不下，例如根据11月份的协议，有多少学生能获得签证。慷慨的解释是，他们在强硬讨价还价，以便在国内推销这项协议。曾是坚定留欧派的卡梅伦勋爵也曾警告伯纳姆先生，不要就重新加入问题展开“长达十年的辩论”。
Even as Mr Burnham talks airily of rejoining, British negotiators haggle over far smaller matters, such as how many students would get visas under the November deal. The generous explanation is that they are driving a hard bargain to help sell the deal at home. Even Lord Cameron, once a firm Remainer, has warned Mr Burnham against starting “a decade-long debate” over rejoining.
英国部长们坚称伯纳姆是认真的。否则，为何要谈论人员自由流动，这是英国政治中最具争议的问题之一？外交部大臣斯图尔特·伍德最近在布鲁塞尔的一次聚会上表示，伯纳姆“热切相信”在关系上实现“根本性转变”。他敦促听众理解“首相正在承担多么大的政治风险”。
British ministers insist Mr Burnham is serious. Why else talk about free movement, among the most divisive questions in British politics? Mr Burnham “believes passionately” in getting a “fundamental shift” in the relationship, Stewart Wood, a foreign-office minister, recently told a gathering in Brussels. He urged his audience to understand “quite how much of a political risk the prime minister is taking”.
布鲁塞尔有些人认为，重新加入的辩论是不可避免的。英国公众舆论已发生决定性转变（见图表）；经济增长受到打击。伍德勋爵表示，伯纳姆是“脱欧后英国十年的产物”。脱欧赌注建立在一个已经消失的世界之上，英国已无法乘坐由多边机构管辖的自由贸易浪潮。相反，该国正受到美国、欧盟和中国之间竞争的挤压。
Some in Brussels reckon the rejoin debate was inevitable. British public opinion has shifted decisively (see chart); economic growth has taken a hit. Mr Burnham is “the product of a decade of Britain after Brexit”, Lord Wood said. The Brexit gamble was premised on a world which has disappeared, with Britain no longer able to ride a wave of free trade governed by multilateral institutions. Instead, the country is being squeezed by the rivalry between America, the EU and China.
这使得当前的关系成为一种不稳定的平衡。随着欧盟试图保护其市场免受汽车、塑料、钢铁等诸多领域的激烈竞争冲击，英国将首当其冲，不得不在一个气氛恶劣、如同打地鼠般的博弈中，每隔几个月就游说争取豁免。
That makes the current relationship an unstable equilibrium. As the EU tries to shield its market from aggressive competition—over cars, plastics, steel and more—Britain will be on the sharp end, compelled to lobby for exemptions every few months in an ill-tempered game of whack-a-mole.
双方都将中国视为对此次关系和解的早期考验。英国希望加入“欧洲制造”计划，该计划将利用补贴和政府采购来保护欧洲工业免受中国竞争对手的冲击。峰会结论草案实际上将要求英国提高关税以匹配欧盟，涉及电动汽车等供应链，如果它想在产业政策上享有“可信赖伙伴关系”的话。欧盟担心，英国对中国相对开放，已侵蚀了欧洲汽车制造商在英国的市场。但对一些人来说，这已成为对忠诚度的考验，而不只是经济问题。英国到底想不想置身于欧洲的保护伞之下？
Both sides see China as an early test of the rapprochement. Britain wants to be part of the “Made in Europe” scheme, which will use subsidies and procurement to protect European industry from Chinese rivals. Draft conclusions for the summit would, in effect, oblige Britain to raise its tariffs to match the EU’s for supply chains including electric cars if it wants to enjoy a “trusted partnership” on industrial policy. The EU worries that Britain’s relative openness to China has eroded the British market for European carmakers. But for some it has become a test of allegiance as much as economics. Does Britain want to be under the European umbrella, or not?
在工党内部，辩论正变得非此即彼——重新加入或维持现状。像挪威那样的折中模式正失宠。伯纳姆否决了前财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯提出的一项提议，即通过与欧盟法律的动态对齐来寻求在单一市场中进一步逐部门参与，而这在欧盟看来根本不可行。一些人预计，伯纳姆的食品协议将要求英国采纳欧盟法律却无发言权，这会使争取一席之地的理由不言自明。
In Labour, the debate is becoming binary—rejoin or the status quo. Halfway-house models like Norway’s are falling out of favour. Mr Burnham has killed a proposal by Rachel Reeves, the former chancellor, to seek further sector-by-sector participation in the single market through dynamic alignment with EU law, which was a non-starter for the bloc. Some expect Mr Burnham’s food deal, which will require the adoption of EU law without a say, to make the case for a seat at the table self-evident.
具有讽刺意味的是，这一切发生之际，欧洲可能很快对进步派工党选民不再那么有吸引力。玛丽娜·勒庞明年可能成为法国总统；德国选择党也势头正盛。两者都主张民族主义议程，可能使欧洲的决策陷入瘫痪。英国政府中一些人认为，这反而增强了而非削弱了靠拢欧洲、支持欧洲抵御俄罗斯的理由。不过，这仍将考验伯纳姆的推销能力。
Ironically, all this is happening just as Europe may soon look less attractive to progressive Labour voters. Marine Le Pen might become France’s president next year; the Alternative for Germany party is thriving, too. Both favour nationalist agendas that could paralyse European policymaking. Some in the British government think that strengthens, rather than weakens, the case for leaning in and buttressing Europe against Russia. Still, it would test Mr Burnham’s salesmanship.
不过，谈判也可能出奇地快。英国回归对欧盟来说将是一场重大胜利。英国的法律大多仍与欧盟一致，其谈判代表也经验丰富。但恢复英国的预算返还款绝无可能。欧洲各国政府在英国是否必须加入欧元区和申根区的问题上存在分歧。一些人认为，英国在这些问题上的不安，恰恰说明它内心深处并不想留在这个俱乐部。
Negotiations could nevertheless be surprisingly quick. Britain’s return would be a big win for the EU. The country’s laws are mostly still aligned with the bloc’s, and its negotiators are seasoned. But a return of Britain’s budget rebate is out of the question. European governments disagree over whether it would have to join the euro and the Schengen area. Some see British queasiness on these scores as a sign that, deep down, it does not want to be in the club.
此外，英国的反对党并不想留在欧盟。最糟糕的情形是，重新加入在公投中以微弱优势获胜，而获胜靠的是一份误导性的宣传纲领，且在威斯敏斯特并未获得足够广泛的支持。这样的授权可能在谈判桌上化为泡影。不过，如果英国真心选择重新加入，并承担随之而来的所有义务，那么它就能做到。英国最艰难的一步是第一步：弄清楚自己真正想要什么。
What is more, Britain’s opposition parties do not want to be in the EU. The nightmare scenario is a narrow victory for rejoin in a referendum, won on a misleading prospectus with insufficiently broad support in Westminster. Such a mandate might crumple in the negotiating room. If Britain sincerely chooses to rejoin, though, with all the obligations that entails, then it can. The country’s hardest step is the first: working out what it truly wants.