中国分析人士表示，如果华盛顿在英伟达风波之后进一步限制芯片销售，中国可能会以收紧稀土出口管制作为报复，但他们预计，在下周两国领导人计划会晤之前，更广泛的美中贸易谈判将保持正轨。
China could retaliate with tighter rare earth export controls if Washington further restricts chip sales in the wake of the Nvidia saga, Chinese analysts say, though they expect broader US-China trade talks to remain on track ahead of a planned meeting between the two countries’ leaders next week.
在有关黄仁勋存在多起婚外情的报道传出后，黄仁勋于周四从英伟达辞职，眼下关注焦点转向华盛顿是否会进一步收紧对华半导体出口管制。
Following Jensen Huang’s resignation from Nvidia on Thursday amid reports of multiple extramarital affairs, attention now turns to whether Washington will further tighten semiconductor export controls on China.
总部位于北京的智库全球化智库副主任高志凯表示，那些试图在贸易谈判中利用英伟达争议向北京施压的美国政客“完全打错了算盘”。“他们可能会做的是迫使中国收紧稀土出口管制，”他说。
US politicians seeking to exploit the Nvidia controversy during the trade talks to pressure Beijing would be “completely miscalculating”, according to Victor Gao, vice-president of the Beijing-based think tank Centre for China and Globalisation. “What they may do is force China to tighten control of rare earths exports,” he said.
黄仁勋上周末承认对妻子不忠。《纽约时报》此前报道称，他与女商人黄乐仪关系密切，美国官员怀疑黄乐仪是中国特工。北京方面一再否认有关间谍活动的指控。
Huang admitted over the weekend to being unfaithful to his wife. The New York Times reported earlier that he had shared a close relationship with businesswoman Alice Huang, whom US officials suspect of being a Chinese operative. Beijing has repeatedly denied the spying allegations.
黄乐仪曾是总部位于新加坡的公司Megaspeed的高管，美国正在调查该公司，指其涉嫌参与将英伟达先进人工智能芯片转运到中国，而这些芯片在中国是被限制销售的。
Alice Huang is a former executive at Singapore-based company Megaspeed, which the US is investigating for allegedly playing a role in diverting advanced Nvidia artificial intelligence chips into China, where they are restricted for sale.
中国曾是英伟达的重要市场，后来随着中国与北京方面的技术竞争加剧，华盛顿于2022年禁止该公司向中国销售其最先进的芯片。
China used to be a key market for Nvidia, before an intensifying technology rivalry with Beijing led Washington to bar the company from selling its most advanced chips there in 2022.
高志凯表示，这些限制扰乱了英伟达在中国长期建立的商业关系，促使黄仁勋多次游说美国政府恢复对华芯片销售，因为中国市场需求仍然很高。
There are so many other things above Nvidia chips, above Jensen Huang, above Alice Huang, that China and the United States need to care aboutVictor Gao, Centre for China and Globalisation Gao said the restrictions disrupted Nvidia’s long-standing business relationships in China, prompting Jensen Huang to repeatedly lobby the US government to restore chip sales to the country, where demand remained high.
高补充称，未来几年更严格的限制可能推动中国更接近实现半导体自给自足，随后中国自身也可能成为主要芯片出口国。
Tighter restrictions could push China closer towards achieving semiconductor self-sufficiency over the next few years, before becoming a major chip exporter itself, Gao added.
上海政治经济学家、经济分析平台“尖锐之声”主编王颖亮表示，美国将黄仁勋的个人事务列为安全问题，从而为打压对华AI芯片出口找到了新的借口。
Wang Yingliang, a Shanghai-based political economist and chief editor of economic analysis platform Sharp Voices, said that by making Jensen Huang’s personal affairs a security issue, the US had fresh justification for clamping down on its AI chip exports to China.
但王颖亮表示，北京可能会对美国公司实施制裁，或者通过更广泛的贸易谈判，或在稀土、贩毒和电信诈骗等领域的合作中，就芯片出口争取让步。
But Beijing could retaliate with sanctions on American companies, Wang said, or negotiate concessions on chip exports through broader trade discussions or cooperation on rare earths, drug trafficking and telecoms fraud.
“我不认为芯片会对贸易谈判产生重大影响，”王颖亮表示，并补充说，中国充足的芯片库存和不断增强的国内技术能力，可以缓冲进一步限制带来的短期影响。
“I do not believe that chips will have a significant impact on trade negotiations,” Wang said, adding that China’s substantial chip inventories and growing domestic technological capabilities could cushion the short-term impact of further restrictions.
中国外交部周五表示，北京一贯反对滥用出口管制，并补充说，进一步限制中国获取美国算力将扰乱全球供应链。
China’s foreign ministry said on Friday that Beijing had consistently opposed the abuse of export controls, adding that further restrictions on Chinese access to American computing power would disrupt global supply chains.
“中美双方应共同落实两国领导人达成的重要共识，保持双边经贸关系稳定发展的势头，”外交部发言人毛宁表示。
“China and the United States should work together to implement the important consensus reached by their leaders and maintain the momentum of stable development in bilateral economic and trade relations,” spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
中国国家主席习近平和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普预计将于下周在深圳举行的亚太经合组织峰会上会面——这是他们今年的第三次会晤。
President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are expected to meet next week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen – their third meeting this year.
在领导人会晤之前，双方预计将举行另一轮贸易谈判，对等关税削减、农产品采购和稀土等议题可能会被提上议程。
Ahead of the leaders’ meeting, another round of trade talks between the two sides is expected, where topics including reciprocal tariff cuts, agricultural purchases and rare earths are likely to be on the table.
高同样淡化了英伟达事件对中美关系的影响，指出两国面临更紧迫的地缘政治问题。
Gao similarly downplayed the impact of the Nvidia case on US-China relations, noting that the two countries faced more pressing geopolitical issues.
“除了英伟达芯片、黄仁勋、爱丽丝·黄，中美两国还需要关注很多其他事情，”高说。他还表示，全球冲突和其他问题预计将在深圳的议程上占据更优先的位置，尤其是特朗普和习近平还预计将会见俄罗斯总统普京。
“There are so many other things above Nvidia chips, above Jensen Huang, above Alice Huang, that China and the United States need to care about,” Gao said, adding that global conflicts and other issues were expected to be higher on the agenda in Shenzhen, especially with Trump and Xi also expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
然而，经济学人智库的经济学家徐天辰认为，尤其是在共和党在最近美国中期选举中失利之后，中美关系可能会变得更加脆弱。
Xu Tianchen, an economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, however, argued that relations between China and the US could become more fragile, especially after the Republicans’ defeat in the recent US midterm elections.
“所谓‘建设性战略稳定’本质上是中国与特朗普之间的稳定，而特朗普现在已被削弱，”徐说。他还认为，如果美国实施更严格的芯片管制，北京可能进一步限制稀土出口。
“The ‘constructive strategic stability’ is essentially one between China and Trump, and Trump is now weakened,” said Xu, who was also of the view that Beijing was likely to further restrict exports of rare earths if the US imposed stricter chip controls.
英伟达问题引起了华盛顿对华鹰派的密切关注，商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克因监管对华芯片销售而受到批评。
The Nvidia issue has raised scrutiny from China hawks in Washington, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick under fire over his oversight of chip sales to China.
据《纽约时报》报道，特朗普本人基本上一直支持黄仁勋，他在周二致电黄仁勋，敦促他为保住自己的职位而战。
Trump himself had largely remained supportive of Jensen Huang, having called him on Tuesday to urge him to fight for his job, The New York Times reported.
王表示，美国对爱丽丝·黄的调查以及国会民主党人的潜在反对仍存在不确定性。但除非国家安全关切进一步升级，否则他预计特朗普政府将继续坚持目前的芯片出口政策。
Wang said uncertainties remained over the US investigations into Alice Huang and potential opposition from Democrats in Congress. But barring any further escalation of national security concerns, he said he expected the Trump administration to continue adhering to its current chip export policy.
“归根结底，无论发生什么，都将取决于特朗普自己的立场，”王说。
“Ultimately, whatever happens, it will depend on Trump’s own position,” Wang said.