唐纳德·特朗普花了两年时间推行贸易战、冷淡外交并拥抱北京，这削弱了为遏制崛起中的中国而建立的四国亚太联盟。
Donald Trump has spent two years pursuing trade wars, aloof diplomacy and an embrace of Beijing that have undermined the four-nation Asia-Pacific alliance created to counter a rising China.
下周，他将首次与“四方安全对话”机制的其他三国领导人坐下来会谈。
Next week, he’s set to sit down together with the leaders of the “Quad” for the first time ever.
这次与日本、印度和澳大利亚领导人的会晤定于周一举行，地点在菲律宾东盟峰会期间。在此之前，“四方机制”另外三个成员国对特朗普的轻视和对待方式感到不满。
The meeting with the heads of Japan, India and Australia — scheduled for Monday on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in the Philippines — comes as the other three members of the Quad alliance bristle at what they see as Trump’s dismissiveness and mistreatment of them.
一位驻华盛顿的亚洲外交官说：“‘四方机制’正靠生命维持系统维持。它还没死，但需要强有力的领导。”该外交官因言论敏感而要求匿名。
“The Quad is on life support,” said a Washington-based Asian diplomat, granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of their comments. “It’s not dead yet, but it needs strong leadership.”
“四方机制”削弱对中国是个好消息。虽然这个存在二十年的组织主要集中在气候、卫生和基础设施建设等领域的合作，但近年来它已转向地区安全重心，通过联合海警和海军演习来推进。北京将该集团称为“印太北约”。
A weakened Quad is good news for China. While the two-decade-old grouping has mostly focused on collaboration in areas such as climate, health and infrastructure development, in recent years it has moved toward a regional security focus through joint Coast Guard and naval exercises. Beijing has labeled the bloc an “Indo-Pacific NATO.”
退役少将马克·蒙哥马利曾任美国太平洋司令部作战主任，他说：“‘四方机制’代表了共同应对中国共产党的机会，而这个机会正在被错失。特朗普对这三个国家的不当对待，阻碍了任何在共同拉拢印度更直接参与应对中国在次大陆以外侵略行为方面的进展。”白宫为特朗普对该集团的领导进行了辩护。
“The Quad represents an opportunity to collectively confront the Chinese Communist Party, and it’s being missed,” said retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, former director of operations at U.S. Pacific Command. “Trump’s mistreatment of all three countries has prevented any progress in collectively pulling India into more direct participation in confronting Chinese aggression outside the subcontinent.”The White House defended Trump’s leadership of the bloc.
白宫发言人奥利维亚·威尔士说：“没有哪个政府比特朗普政府做得更多来推进‘四方机制’合作。”
“No administration has done more to advance Quad cooperation than the Trump administration,” said White House spokesperson Olivia Wales.
特朗普在第一任期内对“四方安全对话”机制（Quad）采取了截然不同的做法。该机制虽于2007年成立，但次年因内部争执和担心激怒北京而基本陷入停滞。特朗普于2017年重启该机制，以应对中国在印太地区日益增长的经济、外交和军事影响力，但他从未举行过领导人峰会。
Trump had a very different approach to the Quad in his first term. While the alliance was created in 2007, it went mostly dormant the year after amid internal squabbling and concerns about provoking Beijing. Trump revived it in 2017 to address growing concerns about China’s increasing economic, diplomatic and military heft in the Indo-Pacific, though he never held a leaders’ summit.
前总统乔·拜登投入大量精力推动该小组，在其任内参加了六次“四方”领导人会议——其中两次为视频会议。他在2024年于特拉华州主办了最后一次“四方”会议。
Former President Joe Biden gave significant time to the group, participating in six Quad leader meetings — two of them virtual — during his presidency. He hosted the last meeting of the Quad in Delaware in 2024.
在第二任期内，特朗普将与“四方”的接触降级交由国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥负责。
In his second term, Trump has relegated engagement with the Quad to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
“特朗普不像拜登那样投入这些伙伴关系。与此一致的是，直到本月之前，特朗普认为举行‘四方’峰会没有价值，”奥巴马政府时期担任澳大利亚驻美国防联络官的阿尔赞·塔拉波雷（Arzan Tarapore）表示。“白宫没有推动‘四方’机制前进的压力。”特朗普第二任期的一个特点是对多边组织的鄙视。他已让美国退出世界卫生组织和联合国气候公约，支持一项旨在“拆解”国际刑事法院的努力（美国从未成为该机构成员），并多次威胁让美国退出北约。
“Trump doesn't invest in these partnerships the way Biden did. And consistent with that is the fact that Trump saw no value in having a Quad summit” until this month, said Arzan Tarapore, former Australian defense liaison to the U.S. during the Obama administration. “There's not that White House pressure to advance the Quad.”Trump’s disdain for multilateral organizations has been a feature of his second term. He has withdrawn the U.S. from the World Health Organization and the United Nations’ climate convention, backed an effort aimed at “dismantling” the International Criminal Court (a body the U.S. has never been a member of), and has repeatedly threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO.
特朗普未公开批评“四方”，但他对该小组缺乏兴趣已让成员国感到不安，尽管较低层级的工作仍在继续。
Trump hasn’t publicly criticized the Quad, but his lack of interest in the group has spooked its members, even as lower-level work has continued.
鲁比奥已召集五次“四方”外长会议，国务院与该小组的接触已产生多项举措，旨在加强能源供应链、升级斐济港口设施以及整合四国的监视能力。鲁比奥上月对记者表示，这些讨论已将“四方”“从一个仅开会谈论问题的场所，转变为一个我们确定合作领域的场所”。“四方安全对话”伙伴国的热情降温了。
Rubio has convened five meetings with Quad foreign ministers, and the State Department’s engagement with the group has produced initiatives to bolster energy supply chains, upgrade port facilities in Fiji and integrate the four countries’ surveillance capabilities. Those discussions have transformed the Quad “from a place we just meet and talk about problems to a place we identify areas to work together on,” Rubio told reporters last month. Quad partners are less enthusiastic.
“尽管鲁比奥国务卿做出了努力，‘四方安全对话’的雄心已大幅降低，”奥巴马政府时期担任国务院南亚和中亚事务助理国务卿的妮莎·比斯沃尔表示，她仍与该地区的政策制定者保持联系。“各方希望维持‘四方安全对话’的运转，以便日后或许能将其重新列为优先事项，但不一定要在当前时刻向‘四方安全对话’框架投入大量精力和雄心。”
“Despite the efforts of Secretary Rubio, ambition has gone way down in the Quad,” said Nisha Biswal, former assistant secretary of State for south and central Asian affairs in the Obama administration, who is still in touch with policymakers in the region. “There’s a desire to keep the Quad alive, so that it can become perhaps reprioritized down the road, but not necessarily to put a huge amount of effort and ambition into the Quad structure at the current moment.”
这种最高层面缺乏投入的情况，可能会使试探性的拓展合作重点举措（包括将区域防务合作纳入其中）偏离轨道，而印度和日本正面临与中国日益恶化的边境局势。
That absence of engagement at the highest levels could derail tentative moves to expand its focus to include cooperation on regional defense as both India and Japan grapple with worsening border tensions with China.
“如果你想让‘四方安全对话’不仅仅是一个‘谈话店’，你需要来自最高领导人的信号，”前中情局中国分析师、现任布鲁金斯学会研究员乔纳森·兹金说。“北京将任何低于美国国家元首级别的参与，都视为美国正在退出‘四方安全对话’的迹象。” 2025年一项美国贸易协议告吹——导致印度背负50%关税——使印度感到失望，导致原定于同年在新德里举行的“四方安全对话”领导人峰会泡汤。
“If you want the Quad to be more than a talk shop, you need that signal from the boss,” said Jonathan Czin, a former CIA China analyst, now at the Brookings Institution. “Beijing sees anything less than U.S. participation at the head-of-state level as a sign that it's stepping back from the Quad.”India’s dismay over a U.S. trade agreement that fell apart in 2025 — saddling it with 50% tariffs — derailed a planned Quad leaders’ summit in New Delhi the same year.
2月，美国对大多数印度进口产品的关税降至18%。特朗普要求东京在美国投资5500亿美元——超过该国2024年国内生产总值的10%——作为降低汽车及其他产品关税的条件。根据美澳自由贸易协定，澳大利亚输美产品在2025年4月前大多享受零关税待遇，目前关税为12.5%。
U.S. levies on most Indian imports eased to 18% in February. Trump required Tokyo to invest $550 billion — more than 10% of the country’s GDP in 2024 — in the U.S. as a condition for lower tariffs on automobiles and other products. Levies on Australian imports — mostly tariff-free prior to April 2025 under a U.S.-Australia free trade pact — are at 12.5%.
前澳大利亚驻美大使馆国会事务办公室主任简·哈迪表示，对“四方安全对话”伙伴国而言，“特朗普总统及其副手发动的关税和贸易攻势非常难以接受。”
For Quad partners, “the tariff and trade salvos by President Trump and his lieutenants have been very difficult to stomach,” said Jane Hardy, former leader of the Australian embassy’s congressional office in Washington.
特朗普曾多次批评澳大利亚不愿派遣海军力量支援美国重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的行动。去年，他在椭圆形办公室会见时羞辱了时任澳大利亚驻美大使陆克文，导致陆克文于今年1月被撤换。
Trump has repeatedly criticized Australia for its unwillingness to send naval forces to support U.S. operations to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. And he humiliated former Australian Ambassador to the U.S. Kevin Rudd in an Oval Office meeting last year that led to Rudd’s removal in January.
澳大利亚大使馆将询问转交给堪培拉的外交贸易部，后者未回应置评请求。
The Australian Embassy referred queries to the Department of Foreign Affairs in Canberra, which didn’t respond to a request for comment.
特朗普与莫迪的关系——曾因拥抱和私人参观泰姬陵而被称为“兄弟情”——因政府采取的行动动摇了新德里对华盛顿的信任而变质。印度大使馆拒绝置评。
Trump’s relationship with Modi — once a bromance punctuated with bear hugs and private tours of the Taj Mahal — has curdled over administration actions that have eroded New Delhi’s trust in Washington. The Indian embassy declined to comment.
与此同时，特朗普政府对中国加强对日本经济胁迫行动的低调回应，考验着东京对“四方安全对话”机制的承诺。北京长达一年的针对性经济惩罚重创了日本旅游业，削减稀土出口，并将数十家日本企业列入中国出口管制监控名单。但特朗普对这些举措保持沉默。
The Trump administration’s muted response to China’s intensifying economic coercion campaign against Japan has meanwhile tested Tokyo’s commitment to the Quad. Beijing’s yearlong targeted economic punishment has clobbered Japan’s tourism sector, cut rare earth exports and placed dozens of Japanese companies on Chinese export restriction watch lists. But Trump has kept mum on those moves.
“特朗普因缺乏对日本抵制该压力的支持，削弱了‘四方机制’，”这位亚洲外交官说。
“Trump has undermined the Quad through a lack of support for Japan in pushing back against that pressure,” the Asian diplomat said.
“他的沉默是一个重大错误，”拜登政府时期的前美国驻华大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯说。“如果我们不能公开为日本首相及其政府发声，我们就是在削弱该同盟关系，只是给正在注视我们言行的中国送上优势。”白缺乏参与“四方机制”也招致了国会山的批评。
His silence “is a major mistake,” said Nicholas Burns, former U.S. ambassador to China in the Biden administration. “If we can't stand up vocally for the prime minister of Japan and her government, then we're weakening that alliance, and we're just giving an advantage to the Chinese, who are watching what we're saying and doing.”The lack of White House involvement with the Quad has also drawn fire from Capitol Hill.
“我与其他‘四方’国家的一些担忧及其失望感同感受，”众议员阿米·贝拉（民主党-加利福尼亚州）说，他将在下届国会担任众议院东亚和太平洋小组委员会主席，“对特朗普未能与该集团接触感到失望。”
“I share some of the concerns of the other Quad countries and their disappointment” over Trump’s failure to engage with the group, said Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.), who will chair the House subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific in the next Congress.
东京、堪培拉和新德里的官员现在正着眼于特朗普之后的局面，他在总统任期即将结束的“跛脚鸭”阶段，试图判断其继任者是否会更支持这一机制。
Officials in Tokyo, Canberra and New Delhi are now looking past Trump as he enters the lame-duck phase of his presidency to gauge whether his successor will be more supportive of the group.
“四方伙伴‘抱有希望，也许新政府——无论共和党还是民主党——能给他们一个机会，让其稍微复苏一下’，”曾任日本驻美大使馆政治部特别助理的巽由纪说。
Quad partners are “holding out hope that perhaps a new administration, Republican or Democrat, gives them an opportunity to resuscitate it a little bit,” said Yuki Tatsumi, former special assistant for political affairs at the Japanese embassy in Washington.
但与此同时，四方机制的印太成员国正在深化双边关系，并达成排除美国的安全伙伴关系。9月印日部队的年度联合军演包括二战以来日本战斗机首次部署至印度领空。8月东京与堪培拉签署协议，允许日本在澳大利亚试射高超音速导弹。一周后，日本、澳大利亚和印度尼西亚的防长举行了首次三边会议，讨论军事合作。
But in the meantime, the Quad’s Indo-Pacific-based members are deepening bilateral ties and striking security partnerships that exclude the United States. Annual joint military exercises between Indian and Japanese forces in September included the first deployment of Japanese fighter jets to India’s airspace since World War II. Tokyo and Canberra inked a deal in August allowing Japan to test hypersonic missiles in Australia. A week later, the defense ministers of Japan, Australia and Indonesia held an inaugural trilateral meeting on military cooperation.
“其他三个四方成员国都不会主动排除美国，但它们肯定在积极寻找可以共同做得更多的领域，”巽由纪说。“它们知道，只有联手才能应对中国潜在的经济施压。”
“None of the other three Quad members would move to actively exclude the U.S., but they're definitely actively looking at areas where they can do more together,” Tatsumi said. “They know that they can only counter potential economic pressure from China by joining forces.”