唐纳德·特朗普原本计划在本周的亚洲之行中跳过马尼拉。当菲律宾首次宣布其东亚峰会（东南亚领导人与有关国家领导人会晤的一种形式）日期时，定在特朗普预定前往中国出席备受瞩目的亚太经合组织（APEC）峰会前五天。这对一位不喜欢长途跋涉的总统来说颇为尴尬。于是菲律宾推迟了会议日期，为特朗普提供在首都停留24小时的机会，他于11月17日抵达。
DONALD TRUMP had planned to give Manila a miss on his swing through Asia this week. When the Philippines first announced the date of its East Asia Summit (a format in which South-East Asian leaders meet interested others), it was set for five days before Mr Trump was due in China for the much higher-profile APEC summit. That was awkward for a president who dislikes long-distance travel. So the Philippines pushed back the date of its meeting, offering Mr Trump a 24-hour layover in the capital, where he lands on November 17th.
数月前发给中国、日本、印度等国领导人等重量级人物的邀请函不得不更新。这是一个非同寻常的安排，反映出美国与菲律宾关系依然紧密。两国的安全同盟今年迎来75周年，在特朗普的第二任期内出奇地保持完好，即使其他同盟关系遭受冲击。
Invitations to other bigwigs like the leaders of China, Japan and India, sent months earlier, had to be updated. It was a remarkable accommodation that reflects America’s enduring closeness to the Philippines. The security alliance between the two countries, which turned 75 this year, has remained surprisingly unscathed in Mr Trump’s second term, even as other alliances have been battered.
在暂停批评北约之际，美国战争部长皮特·赫格塞斯称赞菲律宾是模范盟友。与对待其较富裕的盟友日本和韩国不同，美国没有施压菲律宾为其在伊朗的战争出力，也没有要求其增加国防开支。在特朗普任内，正如在乔·拜登总统任内一样，联合军演的规模和复杂程度都有所增长。2025年初特朗普政府大幅削减美国国际开发署（USAID）后，菲律宾是首批获得新发展援助的国家之一。
Taking a break from criticising NATO, America’s secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, has praised the Philippines as a model ally. Unlike with its richer friends, Japan and South Korea, America has not pressed the Philippines to contribute to its war in Iran or to increase its defence spending. Joint military exercises have grown in scale and sophistication under Mr Trump, as they did under President Joe Biden. After the Trump administration gutted USAID in early 2025, the Philippines was among the first countries to receive new development assistance.
作为美国的前殖民地，菲律宾于1951年与美国签署了共同防御条约。菲律宾人称美国为“大哥”。正如兄弟姐妹之间常有的情况，这个国家既感到被美国忽视，又因美国时而关注、时而疏远而感到窒息。特朗普将遭遇一些抗议，这在大多数地方都是如此。但总体欢迎将是热烈的。皮尤研究中心6月发布的一项调查显示，68%的菲律宾受访者表示信任特朗普会做正确的事，在被调查的36个国家中排名最高。而在英国，仅有26%的受访者持相同看法。
A former American colony, the Philippines signed a mutual-defence treaty with America in 1951. Filipinos refer to Uncle Sam as “big brother”. And, as is often the case between siblings, the country has felt both neglected and suffocated by America’s intermittent attention. Mr Trump will encounter some protests, as he is in most places. But the overall welcome will be warm. In a survey by the Pew Research Centre published in June 68% of Filipino respondents said they had confidence in Mr Trump to do the right thing, the highest level among the 36 countries polled. In Britain only 26% said they felt the same way.
这在一定程度上是对中国对邻国施压的回应。中国在南海主张上变得更加强硬，南海是一个与包括菲律宾在内的七个国家接壤的战略水道。中菲水手在海上发生过冲突。美国在这些争端中支持其盟友，为原本有限的回应提供了额外的军事力量。“我们不会离开，”美国国防部第三号人物埃尔布里奇·科尔比8月在马尼拉对听众表示。
This is partly a response to China’s bullying of its neighbours. China has become more assertive in its claims over the South China Sea, a strategic waterway that borders seven countries, including the Philippines. Chinese and Philippine sailors have skirmished at sea. America has backed its ally in these disputes, providing additional muscle to an otherwise limited response. “We are not leaving,” Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s third-ranking official, said in August to an audience in Manila.
“我们正在深耕，以确保在最重要的地方维持有利的力量平衡。”美国智库战略与国际研究中心高级研究员格雷格·波林表示，对于菲律宾总统小费迪南德·马科斯（图为早前访问白宫时的照片）而言，特朗普到访其国家将已经是“大半个胜利”。马科斯只能任职一个为期六年、2028年结束的任期，最近陷入麻烦。2025年的严重洪水引发了关于政府资助防洪项目腐败的指控，进而引发了数周抗议、一项弹劾动议以及要求他辞职的呼声。
“We are digging in to ensure a favorable balance of power where it matters most.”For President Ferdinand Marcos junior (pictured on an earlier visit to the White House), Mr Trump’s presence in his country will already be “most of the win”, says Greg Poling, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, an American think-tank. Mr Marcos, who is limited to a single six-year term that ends in 2028, has been in trouble recently. Severe floods in 2025 led to allegations of corruption in government-funded flood-control projects and this, in turn, spawned weeks of protests, an impeachment bid and calls for him to resign.
由于食品和能源成本飙升，马科斯振兴菲律宾经济的承诺失去了公信力。菲律宾民调机构OCTA Research称，信任其表现的菲律宾人比例已跌至45%，为其四年前当选以来最低。
Mr Marcos’s pledges to revitalise the Philippine economy have been discredited by surging food and energy costs. The share of Filipinos who have trust in his performance has plunged to 45%, the lowest since his election four years ago, according to OCTA Research, a Philippine pollster.
站在特朗普身边露面可能会有所帮助。马科斯将其外交政策押注在亲美上。他向美军开放了四个菲律宾军事基地，这些基地万一美国因台湾问题与中国开战，可作为前沿部署基地。他还允许美方部署“泰丰”导弹系统，其射程可打击中国。并非所有人都对此感到高兴。一些人认为马科斯不必要地将菲律宾卷入了美中竞争。另一些人则说他信任美国是愚蠢的。
An appearance next to Mr Trump could help. Mr Marcos has staked his foreign policy on being close to America. He has opened four more Philippine military bases to American troops, which could be used as staging grounds in case of an American war against China over Taiwan. He has also allowed the Americans to bring in a Typhon missile system with the range to strike China. Not everyone is delighted by that. Some believe Mr Marcos has unnecessarily drawn the Philippines into the rivalry between America and China. Others say he is foolish to trust America.
马科斯的前任罗德里戈·杜特尔特是一位反复无常的威权主义者，他偏向中国而非美国。尽管菲律宾政坛许多人现在都认为，杜特尔特对北京政府的示好几乎没有带来任何好处，但仍有人相信，他们的国家（或者也许是他们的商业利益）能从与中国的更紧密关系中获益。杜特尔特的女儿萨拉·杜特尔特是现任副总统，也是2028年接替马科斯的领跑者。她并未表现出强烈的亲中立场。但她批评马科斯的外交政策失衡。她说，菲律宾不应在南海问题上依赖美国。
Mr Marcos’s predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, was an erratic authoritarian who preferred China to America. And though many in the Philippines’ political establishment now agree that Mr Duterte’s overtures to the government in Beijing brought little benefit, there are some who still believe their country (or, perhaps, their business interests) could gain from closer ties to China. Mr Duterte’s daughter, Sara Duterte, is the sitting vice-president and the front-runner to succeed Mr Marcos in 2028. She has not been stridently pro-China. But she has been critical of Mr Marcos’s foreign policy, calling it unbalanced. The Philippines, she says, should not lean on America in its troubles in the South China Sea.
为了防范杜特尔特第二次执政可能带来的问题，来自美菲双方的同盟支持者正试图深化非军事领域的联系。菲律宾于4月表示将加入美国的“硅和平倡议”，即美国在科技供应链中排除中国成分的努力。该倡议迄今未为菲律宾带来任何实质成果。特朗普的访问本可能是宣布新协议的理良机。但美国驻马尼拉大使李立本表示，将不会有任何宣布。尽管如此，菲律宾官员仍会对特朗普的友好访问感到满意。正如美国其他盟友所能证明的，情况可能糟糕得多。■
To insure against problems in a second Duterte presidency, boosters of the alliance from both America and the Philippines are trying to deepen non-military ties. The Philippines in April said it would join America’s Pax Silica initiative, its effort to build tech supply chains without Chinese content. The initiative has so far produced nothing concrete for the Philippines. Mr Trump’s visit might have been an ideal opportunity to herald a new deal. But Lee Lipton, the American ambassador in Manila, has said there will be no announcement. Nonetheless, Philippine officials will be happy with a congenial visit from Mr Trump. As America’s other allies can attest, it could be a lot worse. ■