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半岛电视台

巴基斯坦、土耳其和沙特对胡塞武装的威慑:这意味着什么Pakistan, Turkiye and Saudi deterrence against Houthis: What that means

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巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡——自8月份签署以来,《麦加协议》如今首次正式生效。该协议由沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦和土耳其三方共同签署。

Islamabad, Pakistan — For the first time since it was signed in August, the Mecca pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye is now in force.

周一,在利雅得举行的紧急会议上,协议执行委员会一致同意向沙特派遣巴基斯坦和土耳其军队。目前沙特正在对也门的胡塞武装发动攻势。

At an emergency meeting in Riyadh on Monday, the pacts top committee agreed to deploy Pakistani and Turkish forces to the kingdom, which is backing an offensive against Yemens Houthis.

巴基斯坦外交部发布的联合声明称:“委员会决定立即着手落实集体防御承诺,采取必要措施提供约定的军事力量与资源,并确保其按照既定安排及各方国内法律迅速部署至沙特境内。”声明中并未提及派往沙特的军队规模及其具体任务。

“The Committee decided to move immediately to the practical implementation of the collective defense commitments and to take the necessary measures to provide the agreed military forces and capabilities and ensure their rapid deployment in the Kingdom, in accordance with the approved arrangements and the national legislation of the Parties,” said a joint statement shared by Pakistan`s Foreign Office. The statement did not specify the size or role of the forces.

沙特领导的联军发言人图尔基·马利基少将透露,目前有100架战斗机正在协助也门政府军夺回上月被胡塞武装占领的领土。

Saudi-led coalition spokesperson Major-General Turki al-Malki said 100 fighter jets were supporting a counteroffensive by the internationally recognised Yemeni government to retake territory seized by the Houthis last month.

会议结束数小时后,巴基斯坦国防部长卡瓦贾·阿西夫表示,巴方军队早已参与其中。“土耳其与巴基斯坦军队主要承担支援任务。我们确实参与了侦察等工作,但实际的战斗主要由沙特军队执行,正是他们收复了那些地区,”阿西夫周一晚间在利雅得接受Geo News采访时说道。

Hours after the meeting, Pakistans Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said Pakistani forces were already playing a part. “The forces of Turkiye and Pakistan are playing a supporting role. We are definitely involved in reconnaissance and such things, but the combat is practically being conducted by Saudi Arabias own forces, and they are the ones retaking those areas,” Asif told Geo News, speaking from Riyadh on Monday night.

这意味着巴基斯坦在配合沙特攻势的同时仅承担防御职能。分析人士对半岛电视台指出,此举引出了一个伊斯兰堡尚未公开回答的问题:巴基斯坦能在多大程度上避免直接参战?现有的军事安排是什么?

That leaves Pakistan in a defensive role alongside a Saudi offensive. Analysts told Al Jazeera that it raises a question Islamabad has yet to answer publicly: How long can it stay out of the actual fighting? What is already in place?

实际上,巴基斯坦早已在沙特驻有军事人员。自1967年起,巴方便开始为沙特军队提供训练,1982年双方又通过协议正式确立了向沙特派遣部队的机制。

Pakistan already had a military presence in Saudi Arabia. It has trained Saudi military personnel since 1967, with a 1982 agreement formalising the deputation of troops to the kingdom.

一份于1985年6月解密的中情局评估报告显示,当时约有1.3万至1.4万名巴基斯坦军人服役于沙特军队,其中包括驻扎在塔布克的装甲旅。在1990至1991年的海湾战争期间,巴基斯坦还向沙特派遣了大量部队以承担防御任务。

A declassified CIA assessment from June 1985 estimated that 13,000 to 14,000 Pakistanis were serving in the Saudi army, including an armoured brigade at Tabuk. During the 1990-91 Gulf War, Pakistan also sent a large contingent to the kingdom for defensive duties.

2025年9月,巴基斯坦与沙特阿拉伯签署了《战略共同防御协定》,该协定规定对任一国家的侵略行为均被视为对双方的侵略。

Pakistan also signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia in September 2025, which treats aggression against either country as aggression against both.

今年4月,利雅得方面证实,一支由战斗机及支援飞机组成的巴基斯坦部队已抵达东部省的阿卜杜勒阿齐兹国王空军基地。巴基斯坦方面尚未公布目前驻沙特的本国军队具体人数。

In April, Riyadh confirmed that a Pakistani force, including fighter and support aircraft, had arrived at King Abdulaziz airbase in the Eastern Province. Pakistan has not disclosed how many of its troops are in Saudi Arabia.

9月,巴基斯坦军方媒体机构“三军公共关系局”局长艾哈迈德·沙里夫·乔杜里在接受沙特媒体《阿拉伯新闻》采访时称,巴基斯坦军队早已部署在沙特,负责保护该国及其圣地。

In September, Lieutenant-General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, director-general of the military`s media wing, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), told the Saudi outlet Arab News that Pakistani forces were already deployed to protect the kingdom and its holy sites.

“在此我想特别强调‘实地部署’这一词,”乔杜里说道,“我们将不惜一切代价。”对于利雅得方面达成的此次军事部署事宜,三军公共关系局并未回应半岛电视台的置评请求。

“I would like to underscore here the word ‘physically,” Chaudhry said. “We will go to any extent.”ISPR did not respond to Al Jazeeras request for comment on the deployment agreed upon in Riyadh.

周二,巴基斯坦新闻部在社交平台X上发文称,该国对保护圣地及沙特王国安全的承诺不容讨价还价。

On Tuesday, Pakistans Ministry of Information said in a post on X that the countrys commitment to the security of the holy sites and the kingdom was not negotiable.

该部还指出:“有关共同防御机制具体实施的操作细节属于军事机密,不应成为媒体臆测的内容。”至于土耳其方面的军事存在情况则尚不明确。

“The operational details of the actualisation of the collective deterrence are a matter of operational confidentiality and may not be made subject of media speculation,” the ministry said. Turkiye`s footprint is less clear.

阿西夫称土耳其军队也身处沙特,但安卡拉方面尚未公开确认任何部署行动。

Asif said Turkish forces were also present, but Ankara has not publicly confirmed any deployment.

“目前并无任何公开信息表明土耳其在沙特设有常驻部队,”伊斯坦布尔伊本·赫勒敦大学国际关系专家戈坎·埃雷利向半岛电视台说道。

“There is no publicly acknowledged standing Turkish deployment in Saudi Arabia,” Gokhan Ereli, an international relations expert at Istanbul`s Ibn Haldun University, told Al Jazeera.

埃雷利指出,根据土耳其宪法第92条规定,向海外派遣军队的权力属于议会,而议会至今尚未批准《麦加协定》。威慑措施会呈现何种形式呢?

Ereli noted that under Article 92 of Turkiye`s constitution, the authority to send troops abroad rests with the parliament, which has yet to ratify the Mecca pact. What could deterrence look like?

海湾国际论坛执行主任达尼亚·塔费尔表示,利雅得希望这份协议具备真正的威慑力。

Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum, said Riyadh wants the pact to carry real weight.

她在接受半岛电视台采访时说:“沙特正试图将《麦加协议》从一份政治宣言转变为有效的威慑手段。”

“Saudi Arabia is trying to turn the Mecca pact from a political declaration into a deterrent,” she told Al Jazeera.

她指出,目前利雅得主要希望巴基斯坦和土耳其能协助保卫沙特领土,并强化其防空与反导能力,以此表明此类袭击已不再仅仅是沙特与胡塞武装之间的问题。在美国发动的当前战争中,由于伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的通行实施限制,利雅得一直依赖东西输油管道出口石油;而胡塞武装已多次袭击沙特的多座城市及相关设施。沙特官方称,周一晚间该国两座机场遭到袭击,至少三人受伤。

For now, she said, Riyadh mainly wants Pakistan and Turkiye to help defend Saudi territory and reinforce its air and missile defences, showing that another attack is no longer only a Saudi-Houthi matter. The Houthis have attacked multiple Saudi cities and facilities, including the East-West Pipeline that Riyadh has been using to export oil amid Iranian restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing war waged by the US. Saudi authorities said two airports in the kingdom had been hit on Monday evening, injuring at least three people.

不过,沙特国防大臣哈立德·本·萨勒曼对此次会议的阐述比塔费尔的描述更为深入。

But Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman`s account of the meeting went further than what Thafer suggested.

他在社交媒体上写道:“委员会一致同意在联盟框架内采取集体威慑措施,以应对这些袭击事件及所有肇事方。”塔费尔称,这样的措辞是经过精心设计的。

“The committee agreed to activate collective deterrence measures within the framework of the Alliance in response to the attacks and all those responsible for them,” he wrote on Thafer said the wording was deliberate.

她解释道:“‘所有肇事方’这一表述刻意留有余地。这向胡塞武装传递的信息是:沙特可能不再局限于拦截导弹,还会打击任何协助实施袭击的势力或基础设施。同时,这也是在向外部支持者发出警告:利雅得正在密切监视整个支援网络。”然而,巴基斯坦官员的态度则更为谨慎。

“‘All those responsible` is intentionally ambiguous. It tells the Houthis that Saudi Arabia may go beyond intercepting missiles and strike any actor or infrastructure enabling those attacks. It is also simultaneously warning external sponsors that Riyadh is watching the entire support network,” she said. However, Pakistani officials have been more cautious.

10月2日,巴基斯坦副总理兼外交部长伊沙克·达尔在伊斯兰堡的新闻发布会上表示:“文件本身明确指出,该协议具有防御性质,并无任何进攻意图。”

“The document itself says, first, that it is defensive in nature. It has no offensive agenda,” Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said at a news conference in Islamabad on October 2.

曾任准将、现任职于伊斯兰堡政策研究所的高级研究员图格拉尔·亚明则认为,巴基斯坦提供的援助很可能以专业领域为主,规模不会很大。

Tughral Yamin, a retired brigadier and senior associate at Islamabads Institute of Policy Studies, said Pakistans contribution was likely to be specialised rather than large.

巴基斯坦最可能会加强其现有的军事部署,包括防空部队、无人机、战场通信系统和进攻性网络专家,以及工程兵挖掘和拆除地雷的人员,还有一些特种作战部队。我只能这么说,没有更多了。”他告诉半岛电视台。埃雷利预计土耳其的角色也会类似有限。

“Pakistan is most likely going to beef up its existing presence with air defence units, drones, battlefield communication systems and offensive cyber specialists, men from the corps of engineers to lay and lift mines, some special service troops. Nothing more than that, I would say,” he told Al Jazeera. Ereli expects Turkiye`s role to be similarly limited.

“现实的回应将是经过校准且主要是非地面作战的。这意味着外交协调、情报共享、紧急补给防空系统、无人机和电子战装备,以及可能是海军或防空资产。”他说。这是否会扩展到也门?塔菲尔说,现在有两场作战并行进行。

“The realistic response would be calibrated and mostly non-ground. That means diplomatic coordination, intelligence sharing, emergency resupply of air defence, drones and electronic warfare, and perhaps naval or air-defence assets,” he said. Could it extend into Yemen? Thafer said two campaigns were now running side by side.

“实际上有两个 concentric(同心的)行动正在进行:一是防卫沙特阿拉伯;二是改变也门内部的军事平衡,使胡塞分子无法从越来越强大的立场继续攻击沙特领围。”她说。巴基斯坦并未公开说明其参与的边界在哪里。

“There are really two concentric operations taking place: one is defending Saudi Arabia; the second is changing the military balance inside Yemen so the Houthis cannot continue attacking Saudi territory from a position of growing strength,” she said. Pakistan has not said publicly where its role stops.

9月30日在罗马接受记者采访时,阿西夫被问及巴基斯坦军队是否加入了也门的打击行动时,并未直接回答。

Asked by reporters in Rome on September 30 whether Pakistani forces had joined strikes in Yemen, Asif did not answer directly.

“我不会详述,但显而易见,当我说我们受到这一安排的约束要防卫沙特阿拉伯时,这意味着凡是我们可用的手段,也都会提供给沙特阿拉伯。”他说。巴基斯坦以前也面临过这个问题。

“Im not going into detail, but obviously, when I say that we are bound by this arrangement to defend Saudi Arabia, that means whatever means are available at our disposal, theyll be available to Saudi Arabia also,” he said. Pakistan has faced this question before.

2015年4月,其议会一致通过决议,称“巴基斯坦应在也门冲突中保持中立,以便能够发挥积极的外交作用结束危机”。但该决议还承诺,如果沙特阿拉伯的领土完整受到威胁或圣地受到威胁,巴基斯坦将与沙特站在一起。

In April 2015, its parliament unanimously resolved that “Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen conflict so as to be able to play a proactive diplomatic role to end the crisis”. But the resolution also pledged that Pakistan would stand with Saudi Arabia if its territorial integrity were violated or the holy sites threatened.

星期一的联合声明用类似措辞为部署行动辩护,并谴责了针对麦加和麦地那的袭击企图。

Monday`s joint statement justified the deployment in similar terms and condemned the attempted targeting of Mecca and Medina.

不过,德黑兰方面正在密切关注事态发展。周日,伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加伊表示,德黑兰希望有关巴基斯坦向也门派遣军队参战的报道并不属实。他警告称,任何新的军事干预只会使局势更加复杂。

Tehran, though, is watching closely. On Sunday, Iran`s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran hoped reports of a Pakistani deployment for war in Yemen were untrue. He warned that any new intervention would only complicate the situation.

在上周的同一场新闻发布会上,达尔称,今年9月在纽约举行的联合国大会期间,他已向伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬及外长阿巴斯·阿拉格希提及该防御协议。

At the same news conference last week, Dar said he had raised the pact with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in New York in September, on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly.

“我向他们说明,我们已缔结防御协议,作为穆斯林,我们必须恪守约定;如果真主保佑,我们定会做到,”他说道。

“I made them aware that we are in a defence pact, and as Muslims, we have to honour it, and God willing, we will,” he said.

他还提到,伊朗领导人建议通过政治途径而非军事手段与胡塞武装打交道。然而周一发布的声明中并未提及任何政治解决方案。

He said the Iranian leaders had suggested engaging the Houthis politically rather than through military action. Monday`s statement made no mention of a political track.

德黑兰海湾研究小组的分析师贾瓦德·赫兰-尼亚指出,伊朗明确区分“保护沙特领土与基础设施”和“对也门境内的胡塞武装发动攻击”这两类行动。

Javad Heiran-Nia, an analyst with the Persian Gulf Studies Group in Tehran, said Iran draws a clear distinction between defending Saudi territory and infrastructure and attacking the Houthis in Yemen.

“总体而言,如果巴基斯坦的部署纯粹出于防御目的,且仅限于保护沙特的设施,德黑兰可以接受。但若巴基斯坦参与针对胡塞武装的进攻行动,伊朗则视其为不可逾越的红线,因为伊朗将胡塞武装视为自己在阿拉伯半岛的战略纵深,”他向半岛电视台解释道。

“In general, if Pakistan`s deployment is purely defensive and limited to the protection of Saudi installations, Tehran can tolerate it. However, if Pakistan joins offensive operations against the Houthis, Iran regards it as a red line, since it views the Houthis as part of its strategic depth in the Arabian Peninsula,” he told Al Jazeera.

“目前,巴基斯坦的调解角色已从中立转向协调各方利益冲突,其公信力正处于极度脆弱的状态,”他补充道。政策研究所的亚明同样认为,巴基斯坦肩负着关键责任。

“Currently, Pakistans mediation has shifted from neutrality to management of conflicting interests, and its credibility is highly fragile,” he added. Institute of Policy Studies Yamin, too, said the onus was on Islamabad.

“巴基斯坦必须审慎划定自身的红线,防止本国军队卷入针对胡塞武装的作战行动。因此问题不应是‘如何参战’,而应是‘如何避免参战’,”他说道。这场局势会持续多久呢?

“Pakistan needs to draw its red lines carefully to prevent its troops [from] getting involved in combat operations against the Houthis. So the question should [be] not how will they get involved but how can they prevent getting involved,” he said.

这一切很大程度上取决于利雅得方面对也门局势有何期望。"利雅得可能希望进行一次短期的高强度战役,以恢复威慑力,而不是再次发动长期的也门战争," 萨费尔说。

How long will it last? Much depends on what Riyadh wants from Yemen. “Riyadh probably wants a short, high-intensity campaign that restores deterrence rather than another open-ended Yemen war,” Thafer said.

但也门政府军本周表示,他们不再将目标仅限于最近几周夺回哈蒙伊人占据的领土,而是实际上旨在夺回伊朗支持的哈蒙伊自2014年以来占据的首都萨那。"军事行动取决于目标:Securing沙特领土和曼德布海峡可能会受到限制," 萨费尔说。"试图从根本上击败哈蒙伊人或夺回萨那将是一场完全不同且潜在更长的战争。"

But Yemeni government forces this week said they were no longer limiting their ambitions to regaining territory lost to the Houthis in recent weeks, and were in fact aiming to retake the capital, Sanaa, held by the Iran-backed group since 2014. “Military campaigns are determined by objectives: securing Saudi territory and Bab al-Mandeb could potentially be limited,” Thafer said. “Trying to fundamentally defeat the Houthis or retake Sanaa would be a very different and potentially much longer war.”

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