马修·伯吉斯报道——随着市场对美澳两国货币政策的预期出现分化，澳大利亚基准债券收益率看起来将自一年多以来首次跌破美国同期国债收益率。
Australia’s benchmark bond yield looks poised to fall below its US counterpart for the first time in over a year, as expectations for monetary policy in the two economies diverge.
市场愈发押注澳大利亚央行正接近其紧缩周期的尾声，而美联储仍有很长的路要走，一些策略师认为，澳大利亚债券的相对优异表现有望延续至2026年底。
With bets growing that the Reserve Bank of Australia is nearing the end of its tightening cycle while the Federal Reserve has much further to go, some strategists see scope for Australian bonds to extend their relative outperformance through end-2026.
10年期澳大利亚国债与同期限美国国债之间的收益率差已收窄至约12个基点，徘徊在2025年9月以来的最小水平附近。Barrenjoey Markets和西太平洋银行预计，未来几个月两者将趋同，而澳大利亚国民银行则表示，利差甚至可能转为负值。
The gap between 10-year Australian notes and similar-maturity Treasuries has narrowed to about 12 basis points, hovering around its smallest since September 2025. Barrenjoey Markets and Westpac Banking Corp. expect the rates to converge in the coming months while National Australia Bank Ltd. says the spread could even turn negative.
“虽然我们的基准情景是10年期澳债与美债收益率差在2027年出现倒挂，但现在发生也并非不合常理，”澳大利亚国民银行驻悉尼的利率策略主管肯尼斯·克朗普顿表示。“到明年年底，如果澳大利亚央行和美联储的预期分化程度如我们所料，那么利差很容易重新测试-20个基点的水平。”
“Whilst our base case is 10-year Australia-US Treasury spread inversion to happen during 2027, it wouldn’t be out of line for it to happen now,” said Kenneth Crompton, head of rates strategy at NAB in Sydney. “By the end of next year if RBA and Fed expectations diverge as much as we expect, then the spread can easily re-test the -20 basis point level.”
本周早些时候公布的数据显示8月通胀降温，且澳大利亚央行行长米歇尔·布洛克表示“希望”今年四次加息足以抑制价格压力，此后澳大利亚债券的吸引力有所上升。在 global 债券遭抛售之际，澳大利亚的AAA信用评级和改善的预算状况也有助于限制较长期收益率的上升压力。
The allure of Australian bonds has grown after data earlier this week showed inflation cooled in August and RBA Governor Michele Bullock expressed “hope” that the four rate hikes this year will be sufficient to quell price pressures. Australia’s AAA credit rating and improved budget have also helped limit upward pressure on longer-dated yields amid a global bond selloff.
彭博一项衡量澳大利亚政府债券回报的指标9月下跌1%，而另一项追踪美国国债的指标则下滑2.2%。
A Bloomberg gauge of Australian government bond returns fell 1% in September, while another tracking US Treasuries slid 2.2%.
美国国债的抛售潮出现，是因为强劲的经济增长和挥之不去的通胀风险促使投资者在美联储上个月实施自2023年以来的首次加息后，进一步计入了更多的加息预期。沉重的政府借贷、对债务可持续性的担忧，以及人工智能超大规模企业发行的一波公司债券，加剧了市场压力，将10年期美债收益率推至2002年以来的最高水平。
The selloff in US Treasuries came as resilient growth and lingering inflation risks prompted investors to price in more rate increases after the Fed last month delivered its first hike since 2023. Heavy government borrowing, concerns over debt sustainability and a wave of corporate bond issuance from AI hyperscalers have added to the pressure, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest since 2002.
交易员预计美联储在未来12个月内还将进行三次25个基点的加息。掉期数据显示，在澳大利亚，交易员预计仅会加息一次。
Traders expect the Fed to deliver three more quarter-point interest-rate hikes over the next 12 months. In Australia, traders expect just one, swaps data show.
尽管澳大利亚也在建设数据中心，但Pendal Group收益策略主管艾米·谢·帕特里克（Amy Xie Patrick）在彭博电视上表示：“来自一个对利率相对不敏感行业的资本争夺，其规模远不及美国。”她说：“仅此一点就是这种分歧可能继续扩大的原因之一。”当然，随着市场努力应对美联储的政策前景，澳美收益率利差的进一步收窄可能需要时间。
While Australia is also building data centers, “that grab for capital from a relatively interest rate insensitive sector is not nearly the same,” Amy Xie Patrick, head of income strategies at Pendal Group, said on Bloomberg TV. “That is one reason alone why that divergence can continue to grow.”To be sure, a further narrowing in the Australia-US yield spread may take time as markets grapple with the outlook for Fed policy.
澳大利亚债券对美债走势依然高度敏感，这可能会限制利差缩小的空间。此外，本月如果通胀或就业数据强于预期，可能会重新点燃市场对澳大利亚储备银行进一步加息的预期。
Australian debt also remains highly sensitive to moves in US Treasuries, potentially limiting the scope for the gap to close. And stronger-than-expected inflation or jobs data this month could revive expectations for further Reserve Bank rate hikes.
在此期间，全球债券基金目前表现出对那些今年迅速采取行动应对通胀飙升的国家的偏好。Jupiter Asset Management和Candriam等资产管理公司都在购买澳大利亚债券，押注加息周期即将结束。
While that plays out, global bond funds are currently showing a preference for countries that moved fast to tackle this year’s inflation spike. Money managers such as Jupiter Asset Management and Candriam are among those buying Australia’s debt betting that the end of the rate-hike cycle is near.
悉尼Barrenjoey首席利率策略师安德鲁·利利（Andrew Lilley）在谈到押注澳美收益率差距将缩小的交易时表示：“对于那些预计澳大利亚储备银行在9月只会再加息一次、今年不再加息的投资者来说，这种利差收窄交易一直很受欢迎。我认为还有进一步获利的空间。”
“The narrower has been a popular trade with investors who expected the RBA would deliver only one more hike in September, and no further this year,” said Andrew Lilley, chief rates strategist at Barrenjoey in Sydney, referring to bets that the Australia-US yield gap would narrow. “I think there’s a little more juice left to squeeze.”