Republicans were smart to make welfare fraud a central issue in the midterm elections. How do I know? Because Michele Tafoya (R) could well become the first Republican senator from Minnesota since Norm Coleman left office in 2009. She is running on bringing much-needed accountability to the state’s scandal-ridden benefits programs. This is huge, and unexpected.

“Unexpected” has long been the hallmark of Minnesota politics. Coleman became mayor of St. Paul in 1993 campaigning as a Democrat; he switched parties three years later to run as a Republican for the governorship but lost to pro wrestler Jesse Ventura. He finally won a Senate seat in 2002 but was then ousted by comedian Al Franken (D) in the blue wave presidential election of 2008. Clearly, almost anything can happen in the Gopher State.

Right now, Tafoya is trailing the Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) by less than 2 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls — within the margin of error. The sleeper race could absolutely determine which party ends up in control of the Senate.

Tafoya fits comfortably with Minnesota’s history of unorthodox candidates. She is a well-known broadcaster and commentator, having won four Sports Emmy Awards and set records for covering five Super Bowls and 327 NFL games, the “most national primetime games of any sideline reporter in league history,” according to her website. Her official bio quotes the San Francisco Chronicle famously calling her “widely recognized as the best sideline reporter in sports.”

Tafoya is attractive, smart and articulate, but she has never held political office. If covering sports is about highlighting who is playing by the rules, she is the perfect person to challenge Flanagan, who has served as Governor Tim Walz’s lieutenant since 2019.

Flanagan, described as a “progressive” by NBC News, beat out moderate candidate Angie Craig in the August Democratic primary. Voters should have known better, because Flanagan has baggage. Earlier this year, her boss, Walz decided against running for another term in the governor’s mansion, scurrying for cover after the massive scandal broke over multiple forms of benefits-fraud. Minnesotans were furious about the theft of as much as $9 billion of their taxpayer dollars, and they blamed the lax oversight on Walz, Flanagan and others in charge, who allegedly turned a blind eye.

The fraud was perpetrated by cheats (mostly) in the Somali immigrant community, who created bogus non-profits that were supposedly offering child care, health programs, school lunches and other vital services but instead cruelly pocketed the funds awarded by the state government.

Walz’s approval rating has plummeted over the last year as more information surfaced about the extent of the fraud, sliding from plus-19 net positive in June 2025 ago to minus-14 in August 2026. He has also been dragging Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) and the state’s Democratic legislature down with him. Though separate numbers are not available for his lieutenant governor, she has almost certainly been tarnished as well.

Tafoya is hitting her opponent hard on the scandal, posting on X, for example: “Peggy Flanagan ignored warning signs while fraudsters stole our tax dollars. She has spent eight years as lieutenant governor in the Walz administration, yet now wants Minnesotans to believe she had nothing to do with its failures.”State officials reportedly looked the other way as the money went missing, worried they might lose the Somali vote; in fact, they ramped up even more taxpayer-funded handouts. Enabled by a rare Democratic-Farmer-Labor trifecta in state government, Walz pushed through universal free school meals and a state program for paid family and medical leave.

As a result, voters are not only swallowing the huge theft of tax dollars, they are also paying among the highest taxes in the country. Minnesota currently ranks 44th overall in the Tax Foundation’s state tax competitiveness index. It could be that voters have had enough.

Industrial-scale welfare fraud isn’t the only issue boosting Tafoya’s chances. In a small gathering recently in Manhattan, she noted that fewer than half of the kids in Minnesota can read or do math at grade level — a charge backed up by recent new data from the Minnesota Comprehensive Assessments. State education officials blamed disruptive deportations of illegal immigrants by the Trump administration for the weak test results, but that won’t hold up. Passing the buck is convenient politically, but it doesn’t explain why the state’s children performed almost as poorly the year before.

Minnesota also saw some of the worst rioting in the country during the 2020 protests against the George Floyd killing, with at least two people killed. Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey were criticized for acting slowly in response to the protests, allowing widespread destruction of hundreds of businesses.

Tafoya has vowed to work closely to make sure the police have the resources — and the laws — they need to keep Minnesotans safe. She has earned endorsements from the Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association and other law enforcement agencies. She backs deportation of immigrants who are convicted of fraud, demands mandatory minimum sentences for fraudsters and calls to “strip federal funding from any state that refuses to implement anti-fraud controls or follow basic audit and recovery practices.”This is smart politics. Americans don’t like being cheated.

One local news organization recently described the race as “quiet,” not attracting the tsunami of outside funding that Senate races in Texas or Maine, for example, are hauling in. Tafoya couldn’t be happier; running on reforming state governance after one of the biggest welfare scandals in U.S. history is working for her — as it should. Just occasionally, politicians need to pay a price for not paying attention to the people who elected them.

Liz Peek is a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim and Company.